Graeme Thickins on Tech

Reflections & analysis about innovation, technology, startups, investing, healthcare, and more .... with a focus on Minnesota, Land of 10,000 Lakes. Blogging continuously since 2005.

I Have Some Good Stories About Private Equity, But This Is My Favorite

Joel Thickins headshot

Joel Thickins, head of Asia for TPG – Copyright, Australian Financial Review (click to enlarge)

I have this nephew who’s a big-time PE exec, based in Melbourne. His name is Joel Thickins, and he’s sure stirring up the Aussie private-equity scene. Such intrigue! The latest media attention he’s getting is from the Australian Financial Review in an article entitled, “‘Aggressive and Clever’: Inside Joel Thickins’ TPG.” (more on that below)

It’s a fascinating look inside the world of big dealmaking Down Under. And Joel continues to make a name for himself in that world, ruffling feathers in an otherwise somewhat stuffy business. He was always super-competitive, from his younger days in the finals of the Oregon State High School Championships, to getting a basketball scholarship to Northern Arizona University and playing in the NCAA Tournament. He soon left that world, where he felt smothered by the system of collegiate athletics, and soon moved on to MBA school at the University of Melbourne, after meeting and marrying an Australian girl. After graduation, he landed at an up-and-coming PE firm called CHAMP (aptly named for Joel!), later being hired to run Australia and New Zealand for the Melbourne office of TPG, one of the world’s largest private equity firms. His dealmaking prowess led to his being named head of the entire Asia market for the firm.

Back to that recent article. Here are some excerpts:

Those who know him well say he makes no secret of his disdain for investment bankers, who he sees as increasingly irrelevant as super funds and private capital firms forge more direct relationships….

“He’s not for the faint-hearted,” says Aidan Allen, the head of investment banking at Jarden, who later joined UBS as an adviser to TPG on the InvoCare deal. “I like dealing with him. He’s aggressive and clever.”

That combination of aggression and talent has kept TPG, one of the most prominent private equity firms in the country, in good stead over the last eight years…

In more than a dozen interviews – although Thickins and TPG declined to comment – friends, colleagues and critics paint a picture of an exacting man who can be hard to get hold of, someone who can be brusque but is often brilliant and more often decisive.

But don’t let me keep you from reading the entire article here — it’s a great read: ‘Aggressive and clever’: Inside Joel Thickins’ TPG.

On the topic of disdain for investment bankers, Joel didn’t hold back when I followed up with him on that and got this gem:

“Bankers are overpaid used car salesmen… their superpower is their ability to be indignant!”

Zing!

Joel Thickins in 2018

Joel in 2018 – Copyright, The Sydney Morning Herald (click to enlarge)

Another super-interesting piece on Joel that I found appeared back in 2018 in The Sydney Morning Herald, entitled TPG’s top man in the thick of it.

This one covers his earlier days at TPG and how he began making a name for himself. I find it all very fascinating! (And not just because he’s my nephew.)

—————–

Here’s more on Joel’s latest plans, detailed in a December 11, 2023 “Street Talk” column in the Australian Financial Review:

TPG seeks $1.5b-plus for new Asian growth fund

TPG deal-maker Joel Thickins has hit the fundraising trail for a new Asia-based fund, Street Talk understands.

Sources said the strategy is chasing $1.5 billion-plus to target growth investments, focusing on consumer, technology/software and healthcare companies with enterprises valued between $150 million and $400 million.

Potential investors were told the majority will be deployed in Australian and New Zealand companies (70 per cent), and the remainder in South Korea and South-East Asia.

‘‘With interest rates rising across the region, attractive valuations are beginning to emerge in the mid-cap space at the same time as earnings growth has become the key driver for investment returns,” TPG Capital said in a marketing pitch seen by Street Talk.

‘‘We believe this market backdrop provides a great point in time to launch our growth strategy in the region.”

Thickins will lead the fund from Australia. It is expected to write checks between $75 million and $150 million. On his hit list are developed, profitable, cash-flow-positive companies looking for funding to expand offshore or improve productivity through tech and operational upgrades.

The firm has had a good year, sweeping funeral services business InvoCare off the ASX and chasing a $4 billion payday at its clinical research organisation Novotech. However, its attempt to offload its pets and vets business Greencross to EBOS collapsed at the last minute after tepid investor support for funding the acquisition.

TPG is touting its strong track record in the region.

The new fund will see TPG compete with the likes of Morgan Stanley Private Equity Asia, Crescent Point, BPEA EQT and Quadria Capital for Asian small-cap and middle-market companies.

——————–

Needless to say, I will continue to follow Joel’s progress! And, one day, I just might make the trip Down Under (where I was born) to see him.

A Great Way to ‘AI Enhance’ Your Headshots

It’s no secret there are far too many really bad headshots all over LinkedIn, and everywhere else online for that matter.  Wouldn’t it be great if something came along to help us normal people solve that problem? Talk about a huge market opportunity! Well, something did — and you can probably guess it would be… yes, we can thank our favorite new friend, AI.

Specifically, a startup called The Multiverse AI  has brought us what they describe as an “AI Headshot Generator” that lets you “turn your selfies into professional headshots” to “boost your professional image.”  Who can’t use some of that in this day and age of… yes, friends, I’m going to say it: Personal Branding. Some examples provided by The Multiverse AI are shown here (click the image to enlarge). some examples of AI enhanced headshots

Actually, it doesn’t have to be just selfies you submit — it can be any photos that include you, by cropping into those images to show just your head and shoulders. I know, I got to test it, and I don’t think any of mine were selfies. I hardly ever shoot a selfie! But I have lots of photos that include me. (Those cropped sections, however, have to be a minimum of 512 x 512 pixels, which was a bit of a challenge for me.)

If you follow my blog, you’ve seen me write about this topic of headshots since AI became such a hot thing in 2022 — namely, in the following two posts.

Generative AI Made Me Do it

I Couldn’t Help Myself – I Did It Again

But that was about avatars, which was sort of a plaything for a while — and I created a bunch with an app called Lensa. I sure had fun with it! This new service from The Multiverse AI, however, is a big step up from that, because it produces photo-realistic images that don’t look fake,  or created by… a bot?

How Good Is It?

Well, ta-dah — I’m debuting my favorite new headshot, courtesy of my experience with The Multiverse, right here on my blog today. It’s the one in the upper right under “About Graeme.” That image replaces the one I’ve had there for more years than I can remember. So, kudos to The Multiverse for finally getting me to update that old one!

And here’s a much larger image of all the best ones I got back after my submission, so you can see the variety their service produces. (Click to enlarge.) 12 headshot images of Graeme Thickins

So, What’s the Story on This Startup?

I learned it was launched on Product Hunt back in September 2023, with good success. Who’s behind it? Well, three cofounders you can see here. And a hat-tip to Tanya, who found me on LinkedIn and requested a connection. I thought it sounded interesting, so I took her up on it. Glad I did!

By the way, another interesting way to use The Multiverse — also a much-needed service — is to create AI-generated professional headshots for your team. There are so many startups — and for that matter, larger companies — who have horribly inconsistent headshots of their teams, or their executive lineup, Well, here’s a way to fix that. Yay! I’ll be recommending it — or using it myself for certain clients.

So… how’s your headshot?

My 2024 Predictions Post

I have this tendency to publish a post each January about what I see coming in the New Year. I’m a little late this year (being it’s already January 20th), but that’s because the general mood has been leaning negative of late — not exactly motivating for an optimist like me.

I refused to use an AI-generated image this time. I instead chose this awesome photo by Nicole Avagliano via Unsplash.

 

Then again, my post in January 2023 wasn’t real upbeat, either. But that was more of a tongue-in-cheek exercise. The previous year, my post in January 2022 wasn’t a list of predictions, but rather focused on one big positive trend I couldn’t ignore: the startup boom. (Remember those good old days?) Going back to January 2021, I went full-on optimist, though had some fun with it, as we were coming out of that God-awful pandemic year and needed some levity.

Anyway, for this post, I finally got around to fleshing out the notes I’d been making over the past couple of weeks. I tend to not blurt things out — I like to think a bit first. (Call me crazy compared to  most bloggers… haha.) This year, I went beyond tech to some other topics I just find hard to ignore these days. So here goes:

AI … The hype curve has peaked. Enjoy the ride down into the trough of disillusionment. I won’t say anything more because… are there any more words to say at all that haven’t already been said about AI in 2023? A breather is needed for sure, because the hype has been getting out of control as we sit here in early 2024. (Note: I am not anti AI, I am anti *AI hype* and anti *AI washing*, which so many startups are doing in an attempt to raise money.) A funny recent quote I saw is from Philip Elmer-Dewitt, who runs the very popular Apple 3.0 news blog: “I’ve been following the A.I. beat since Ronald Reagan’s first term, and in my experience its champions have consistently over-promised and under-delivered. Large language models and generative A.I. are real things, but so are self-driving cars and they’re still running over pedestrians.”

Startups … According to AngelList, the startup formation number was well down in 2023 —  40 percent since 2021! That’s horrible. I predict the number will pick up somewhat in 2024. However, a meaningful reversal won’t come until 2025 with a new administration.

VC … In 2024, I will not be surprised if more VC funds shut down. (A big one did last month.) And check-writing from those that have been largely sitting on their hands in 2023 may not increase much. The numbers are sobering. Pitchbook reported in December that 38% of VCs “disappeared from dealmaking in 2023.” Pitchbook also reported that VC investors injected only $170 billion into startups in 2023, a decrease of nearly 30% from the $242 billion recorded in 2022. In 2021, the number was $348 billion. Not a pleasant trend.

Apple … My price target for $AAPL shares is $220 by yearend — on the strength of the iPhone 16 in the fall (call it “the AI phone”), advancements with the next Watch, and, yes, the initial success of “spatial computing.” No Apple Car anytime soon, friends. Which is fine with me.

Sports / National … Will gambling on NFL games get out of control? One senses that a crackdown must be coming. Right on cue, Minnesota legislators are trying to have sports betting legalized in our state. I for one am getting really sick of all the gambling hype!! On another topic, with TV commercial time absolutely ballooning to fund NFL largesse, I predict sales of low-cost DVRs, like the $79 Tablo unit (to record live TV and certain streaming channels), will boom — letting consumers without high-cost cable services (like that rascally DirecTV) inexpensively record and watch just the actual game, skipping through the mind-numbing amount of commercials they now blast at us. And no subscription is required.

Sports / Local … The Vikings will do better. Which isn’t saying much. And Gopher football damn-well better improve as well! 2023 was embarrassing. One highlight in 2024: we’re finally going to the Rose Bowl! Okay, it’s only a regular season matchup October 12th against UCLA (in their home stadium), as they become part of the Big Ten (Big 18!) this year. And another glaring college football topic: I fear, as many do, that NIL is ruining the sport (sigh). It’s the main reason Nick Saban resigned as coach at Alabama, Hey, we don’t need more “professional” sports!

Higher Ed … College enrollments will continue to drop nearly everywhere, but prices will of course not fall nearly as fast… if at all? That tells you all you need to know. How bad is higher education? Americans’ confidence in these institutions has dropped from 57% in 2015 to 36% in 2023, according to a July 2023 poll by Gallup. Here’s more, from Barron’s: “College tuition rose 12% on average annually from 2010 to 2022, according to data compiled by the National Center for Education Statistics and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. After adjusting for inflation, college tuition has increased 747% since 1963.” This prediction I don’t make joyously, as two startups in my portfolio are in this space. (Luckily a small percentage.)

Minnesota State Government … Complete DFL control will end — it has to! Hope you enjoyed watching that $18 billion surplus — your money — go poof! That measly $520 rebate check to taxpayers (per couple) was an insult. But you fellow Minnesotans already knew that. More people are leaving the state than the number moving in. It’s not just the weather.

Minneapolis … The city will never be the same, I am convinced. And St. Paul, which is suffering almost as badly (worse with tax increases), shares the same fate. The population of both cities will continue to drop.

Anywhere But the City … Within the state, the escape from the central Twin Cities to the metro area suburbs and rural MN will continue, as will the rise in values for lakefront property, hobby farms, and farmland. I included some great insights into the trend toward remote work outside the cities, from a national viewpoint, in a post I published in January 2021.

And one more prediction for good measure:

The Media Business …. Let me go out on a limb 🙂 — the media industry will continue to contract in 2024. Many more jobs will be lost. Take a guess how many — then double it. One glaring reason: according to an October 2023 Gallup poll, a record-high number of Americans — 39% — say they don’t trust the media at all. That number has steadily increased since 2018.

So, on we go. (Yes, to a brighter 2025.)

———————————————

Postscript:

And in my continuing quest to counter the AI hype, I give you this:

A Technologist Spent Years Building an AI Chatbot Tutor. He Decided It Can’t Be Done.

———————————————

And Another Postscript:

I saw a  Wall Street Journal Saturday Essay recently (subscription required) entitled “Why Americans Have Lost Faith in the Value of College.” In it, they noted that the decline in undergraduate enrollment since 2011 has translated into 3 million fewer students on campus. Nearly half of parents say they would prefer not to send their children to a four-year college after high school.

Billionaires who slam higher ed also don’t do it any favors. Here’s Elon Musk on the topic in 2020:

“College is basically for fun and to prove that you can do your chores, but not for learning. I don’t consider going to college evidence of exceptional ability. In fact, ideally, you drop out. You don’t need college to learn stuff. Did Shakespeare go to college? Probably not.”

As a former English major, I can attest… 🙂

———————————————-

And Yet ANOTHER Postscript:

Re: my VC prediction, here’s additional insight into the state of the industry:

VC Funding in 2024: High-Profile Departures, Layoffs and a Glut of Investors Struggling to Generate Returns | Inc.com

Okay, that’s enough postscripts for one post. I publish insights like these to my X account as well, so please follow me there, where I post daily. Over and out!

#EnterpriseAI: General Mills Is ‘Transforming With the Power of Cloud and AI’

I attended an event yesterday at the headquarters of General Mills to hear how the company has partnered with Google Cloud over the past few years to transform itself in the age of cloud and AI. No doubt, hearing how any Fortune 500 could pull off something like this would be quite a story, I figured, let alone a company that’s been around for 155 years(!). Yes, we’ve been known to build ‘em to last here in Minnesota.

I pulled into Betty Crocker Drive in Golden Valley MN about 8:15 am and drove into the sprawling, grassy campus, with several gleaming buildings. I hear it’s not all that busy these days, however, what with remote work. But it may be the most impressive facility of any of our giant local companies for holding a big event like this. The crowd looked like it numbered 300 or more. Being that I’m a big fan of in-person events (but somewhat skeptical of AI hype), I had to check it out. Plus I felt an obligation to be there in light of my role as a board member of MinneAnalytics. (We love data and AI!)

So, what I thought I’d do is share my notes with you, along with some photos, plus stand-out quotes from the executive panel that followed the morning speakers.

Notes from the Opening Keynote by Rich Rubenstein, VP-Data & Analytics

Rich Rubenstein

Rich Rubenstein

– All General Mills data is now on the Google Cloud Platform today.
– The company uses Vertex AI.
– “This is not a science-fair project. We use AI every single day.”
– The focus is on innovation — “in products, in go-to-market, and in how we connect with consumers.”
– On the topic of AI hype: “There’s a tremendous amount of light and heat in this space. But we know we have a solid foundation. We’ve invested in someone [Google] that we know can take us a long way.”

 

Some Remarks from Jenny Hon, Senior Director, Strategy & Enterprise Architecture

– The cloud transformation journey is based on the company’s purpose: “To be the undisputed leader in food.”
– “All signs indicate that our ‘Accelerate Strategy’ is working.” accelerate strategy
– How we win is by doing four things: “Boldly building brands, relentlessly innovating, standing for good, and unleashing our scale.”
– She noted that General Mills has nine billion-dollar brands.
– The company used Cloudera for a long time, “but it wasn’t enough to take us where we wanted to go.”
– What is cloud for General Mills? They focus primarily on infrastructure as a service (IaaS).
– Developing a FinOps practice has been a major focus — “to ensure business unit cloud spends don’t blow their budgets.”

Some Remarks from Josh Moe, Senior Manager, Enterprise Architecture

– “Our aspiration is to lead CPG in data and analytics.”
– The company began in 2019 with a big bet in data analytics with Google Cloud.
– They had looked at two major vendors [the other was Microsoft Azure].
– “We moved SAP from on-prem to cloud. There was a lot of complexity in that.”
– “We did a major transformation and data migration in 24 months. Even Google doubted we could do that.”
– Specifically, the data lake migration took 15 months, and the data center migration took 18 months.
– “We did a full rebuild of how we do SAP.”
– The company’s “Analytics Enterprise Data Warehouse” is on BigQuery. “It’s the enabler of the work we’re doing in AI.”
– “We’re very intentional about our data. Do we own it? Or just subscribe to it?”
– The company has “Automated Self-Service Infrastructure Processes” that provide a simple and secure experience for its data scientists, product teams, and developers.

Some Remarks from Hanna Gordon, Director, Digital & Technology Data Science

– She started with General Mills in 2016, and has managed rapid growth of its AI/ML team.
– In 2019, the team began work with Google Cloud and Google AI.
– Forbes has called her AI team one of the fastest-growing in the country.
– “We have 6 million models in production today.” [Are you kidding me!?]
– Their first use case went live in 2020.
– In 2022, the company’s migration was complete and they began building a machine learning engineering team.
– In 2023, her team has been optimizing workflows, building MLops, and working with generative AI, “like everyone else.”
– The team now numbers 75 in the U.S. and India.
– They now have three core roles: data scientist, ML engineer, and MLops analyst (the most recent role).
– She showed a slide (see “Model Growth”) that listed their number of models per year, and the number of predictions per month — now 500 million(!) from the current 6 million models.

Following the above talks, after a break, there was an executive panel moderated by Saher Asad, Director of Engineering for Google Cloud. The participants were:
– Jeff Young, Chief Data Officer, Prime Therapeutics
– Jason Staloch, VP-Digital Core, General Mills
– Mark Langanki, CTO, C1 (ConvergeOne)

A few highlights:
– Staloch: “Gen AI is the third big thing [transformational technology], after the Internet and the iPhone, that really started on the consumer side.”
– Young: “The first thing we look at with gen AI: is it safe and secure?… We have to be able to wall off our data.”
– Staloch: “There’s a closer relationship now between business and IT. We can tell the story better now.”
– Asad: “Gen AI has taken a lot of the complexity out” [of the AI journey].
– Langanki: “One use case we found, when a conversational chat answer is ‘I don’t know’, we feed that chat into gen AI to find out what the real question was.”
– Young: “Building internal literacy is important for us.”
– Staloch: “The focus should not be on finding a use case but, rather, what is the problem?”
– Langanki: “The conversation on a bot must stay private.”
– Asad: “There’s a big rush now in gen AI, but it’s not the answer to every problem.”
– Staloch: “We’re introducing a private LLM for employees.”
– Young: “The biggest challenge now is how to deploy AI at scale.” His advice: “Start slow. Make sure your data is as high quality as possible,”

One final point cited by Asad, the moderator: Gartner has found over time that only 60% of IT pilots make it into production. The firm also reported recently that it predicts 91% of future IT projects will involve AI. You do the math.

Thanks to General Mills and Google Cloud for putting on this event!

By the way, there were several more technical and hands-on sessions in the afternoon, but I wasn’t able to stay for those. I’ll be interested to hear from colleagues about those sessions.

Have you asked ChatGPT to write your resume or bio?

I got an inquiry from a reporter recently who wanted to know if myself or any of my colleagues could suggest good ChatGPT prompts to use to write a resume. (I sent her to one of my contacts who’s into career counseling, thinking he might weigh in.) I had nothing to offer her myself, but her request got me wondering… what would happen if I asked this all-knowing, all-seeing platform to write a bio for me. I don’t need no stinking resume, but bios — yeah, they’re cool. I’ve had to write them in the past in several lengths for various purposes.

AI-generated image of robot writing flowery language

Robot writing flowery language, created by me using OpenAI’s DALL-E.

So I did just that – submitted my request to ChatGPT. I figured, being that my online presence now spans some 28 years, including tons of writing over that time, 20 years on LinkedIn (as of this summer), and 16 years on Twitter (along with other sundry social-media sites I care less about), this surely should not be a big deal for the current King of AI to handle, right? It has total, complete access to that online presence of mine (at least through the fall of 2021).

Well, I found out quickly. It took only seconds to get results. I tried several approaches — asking for bio lengths of 300, 200, and 100 words. And I made it a point after my first tries to reference LinkedIn and Twitter in my prompt, thinking that surely would provide more grist for the mill, wouldn’t you think? (Well, the results didn’t change much that I could discern — which surprised me.)

Anyway, below is the first one I got — the 300-word version. (It’s actually 366, so apparently ChatGPT doesn’t know how to count – haha!) What got me was how over-the-top gushy it was! I would never be able to write one like this myself. It reminds me of the types of author bios that publishers put on book jackets… you know, to make the person sound like he/she walks on water? And, surprisingly, it contains no specific details or references about my background — just a bunch of flowery language:

Graeme Thickins is a renowned marketing strategist, prolific writer, and influential industry figure who has left an indelible mark on the world of marketing. With an extensive online history, a wealth of writings, and a stellar reputation, Graeme has established himself as a trusted authority and sought-after resource in the field.

Through his blog, articles, and social media presence, Graeme has consistently shared valuable insights, trends, and thought-provoking ideas, showcasing his deep knowledge and expertise in marketing strategy. His writings cover a wide range of topics, including brand management, digital marketing, integrated campaigns, and market research, among others. Graeme’s ability to distill complex concepts into accessible and engaging content has garnered a significant following and earned him a reputation as a thought leader in the marketing community.

Known for his strategic mindset and analytical approach, Graeme has a keen eye for identifying emerging market trends and consumer behaviors. He combines this astute understanding with his extensive experience to craft innovative marketing strategies that drive results. His knack for blending traditional and digital marketing channels has garnered attention, and his campaigns have consistently delivered impressive outcomes for the organizations he has worked with.

Beyond his writings and marketing expertise, Graeme’s reputation is also built on his collaborative nature and willingness to help others succeed. He actively engages with his audience, offering guidance, mentorship, and constructive feedback. His generosity in sharing his knowledge and insights has earned him the respect and admiration of colleagues and industry peers alike.

Graeme’s reputation extends to speaking engagements and industry events where he shares his expertise and experiences. His presentations are renowned for their practicality, delivering actionable takeaways that resonate with attendees. He is often sought after as a speaker, panelist, and workshop facilitator due to his ability to educate, inspire, and empower marketing professionals at all levels.

In summary, Graeme Thickins is a highly respected marketing strategist, accomplished writer, and influential industry figure. Through his online history, extensive writings, and sterling reputation, he has proven his ability to navigate the ever-evolving marketing landscape and consistently deliver impactful results. His dedication to knowledge sharing and fostering professional growth has made him a trusted resource and an invaluable asset to the marketing community.

But, damn, I sure sound like an impressive guy, huh? And it didn’t cost me a dime.

Ain’t AI great?  Well now, wait a minute — let’s hold off deciding that …

——–

p.s.  By the way, it’s interesting that HR people already have ways to defeat AI-written resumes. Humans win again!

“Expose ChatGPT Resumes and Uncover Real Talent Using These 5 Effective Strategies”
https://www.entrepreneur.com/leadership/expose-chatgpt-resumes-and-uncover-real-talent-using-these/448146

 

« Older posts