Graeme Thickins on Tech

Reflections & analysis about innovation, technology, startups, investing, healthcare, and more .... with a focus on Minnesota, Land of 10,000 Lakes. Blogging continuously since 2005.

Category: Startups (Page 1 of 28)

A Great Way to ‘AI Enhance’ Your Headshots

February 11, 2024 / / 0 Comments

It’s no secret there are far too many really bad headshots all over LinkedIn, and everywhere else online for that matter.  Wouldn’t it be great if something came along to help us normal people solve that problem? Talk about a huge market opportunity! Well, something did — and you can probably guess it would be… yes, we can thank our favorite new friend, AI.

Specifically, a startup called The Multiverse AI  has brought us what they describe as an “AI Headshot Generator” that lets you “turn your selfies into professional headshots” to “boost your professional image.”  Who can’t use some of that in this day and age of… yes, friends, I’m going to say it: Personal Branding. Some examples provided by The Multiverse AI are shown here (click the image to enlarge). some examples of AI enhanced headshots

Actually, it doesn’t have to be just selfies you submit — it can be any photos that include you, by cropping into those images to show just your head and shoulders. I know, I got to test it, and I don’t think any of mine were selfies. I hardly ever shoot a selfie! But I have lots of photos that include me. (Those cropped sections, however, have to be a minimum of 512 x 512 pixels, which was a bit of a challenge for me.)

If you follow my blog, you’ve seen me write about this topic of headshots since AI became such a hot thing in 2022 — namely, in the following two posts.

Generative AI Made Me Do it

I Couldn’t Help Myself – I Did It Again

But that was about avatars, which was sort of a plaything for a while — and I created a bunch with an app called Lensa. I sure had fun with it! This new service from The Multiverse AI, however, is a big step up from that, because it produces photo-realistic images that don’t look fake,  or created by… a bot?

How Good Is It?

Well, ta-dah — I’m debuting my favorite new headshot, courtesy of my experience with The Multiverse, right here on my blog today. It’s the one in the upper right under “About Graeme.” That image replaces the one I’ve had there for more years than I can remember. So, kudos to The Multiverse for finally getting me to update that old one!

And here’s a much larger image of all the best ones I got back after my submission, so you can see the variety their service produces. (Click to enlarge.) 12 headshot images of Graeme Thickins

So, What’s the Story on This Startup?

I learned it was launched on Product Hunt back in September 2023, with good success. Who’s behind it? Well, three cofounders you can see here. And a hat-tip to Tanya, who found me on LinkedIn and requested a connection. I thought it sounded interesting, so I took her up on it. Glad I did!

By the way, another interesting way to use The Multiverse — also a much-needed service — is to create AI-generated professional headshots for your team. There are so many startups — and for that matter, larger companies — who have horribly inconsistent headshots of their teams, or their executive lineup, Well, here’s a way to fix that. Yay! I’ll be recommending it — or using it myself for certain clients.

So… how’s your headshot?

My 2024 Predictions Post

January 20, 2024 / / 0 Comments

I have this tendency to publish a post each January about what I see coming in the New Year. I’m a little late this year (being it’s already January 20th), but that’s because the general mood has been leaning negative of late — not exactly motivating for an optimist like me.

I refused to use an AI-generated image this time. I instead chose this awesome photo by Nicole Avagliano via Unsplash.

 

Then again, my post in January 2023 wasn’t real upbeat, either. But that was more of a tongue-in-cheek exercise. The previous year, my post in January 2022 wasn’t a list of predictions, but rather focused on one big positive trend I couldn’t ignore: the startup boom. (Remember those good old days?) Going back to January 2021, I went full-on optimist, though had some fun with it, as we were coming out of that God-awful pandemic year and needed some levity.

Anyway, for this post, I finally got around to fleshing out the notes I’d been making over the past couple of weeks. I tend to not blurt things out — I like to think a bit first. (Call me crazy compared to  most bloggers… haha.) This year, I went beyond tech to some other topics I just find hard to ignore these days. So here goes:

• AI … The hype curve has peaked. Enjoy the ride down into the trough of disillusionment. I won’t say anything more because… are there any more words to say at all that haven’t already been said about AI in 2023? A breather is needed for sure, because the hype has been getting out of control as we sit here in early 2024. (Note: I am not anti AI, I am anti *AI hype* and anti *AI washing*, which so many startups are doing in an attempt to raise money.) A funny recent quote I saw is from Philip Elmer-Dewitt, who runs the very popular Apple 3.0 news blog: “I’ve been following the A.I. beat since Ronald Reagan’s first term, and in my experience its champions have consistently over-promised and under-delivered. Large language models and generative A.I. are real things, but so are self-driving cars and they’re still running over pedestrians.”

• Startups … According to AngelList, the startup formation number was well down in 2023 —  40 percent since 2021! That’s horrible. I predict the number will pick up somewhat in 2024. However, a meaningful reversal won’t come until 2025 with a new administration.

• VC … In 2024, I will not be surprised if more VC funds shut down. (A big one did last month.) And check-writing from those that have been largely sitting on their hands in 2023 may not increase much. The numbers are sobering. Pitchbook reported in December that 38% of VCs “disappeared from dealmaking in 2023.” Pitchbook also reported that VC investors injected only $170 billion into startups in 2023, a decrease of nearly 30% from the $242 billion recorded in 2022. In 2021, the number was $348 billion. Not a pleasant trend.

• Apple … My price target for $AAPL shares is $220 by yearend — on the strength of the iPhone 16 in the fall (call it “the AI phone”), advancements with the next Watch, and, yes, the initial success of “spatial computing.” No Apple Car anytime soon, friends. Which is fine with me.

• Sports / National … Will gambling on NFL games get out of control? One senses that a crackdown must be coming. Right on cue, Minnesota legislators are trying to have sports betting legalized in our state. I for one am getting really sick of all the gambling hype!! On another topic, with TV commercial time absolutely ballooning to fund NFL largesse, I predict sales of low-cost DVRs, like the $79 Tablo unit (to record live TV and certain streaming channels), will boom — letting consumers without high-cost cable services (like that rascally DirecTV) inexpensively record and watch just the actual game, skipping through the mind-numbing amount of commercials they now blast at us. And no subscription is required.

• Sports / Local … The Vikings will do better. Which isn’t saying much. And Gopher football damn-well better improve as well! 2023 was embarrassing. One highlight in 2024: we’re finally going to the Rose Bowl! Okay, it’s only a regular season matchup October 12th against UCLA (in their home stadium), as they become part of the Big Ten (Big 18!) this year. And another glaring college football topic: I fear, as many do, that NIL is ruining the sport (sigh). It’s the main reason Nick Saban resigned as coach at Alabama, Hey, we don’t need more “professional” sports!

• Higher Ed … College enrollments will continue to drop nearly everywhere, but prices will of course not fall nearly as fast… if at all? That tells you all you need to know. How bad is higher education? Americans’ confidence in these institutions has dropped from 57% in 2015 to 36% in 2023, according to a July 2023 poll by Gallup. Here’s more, from Barron’s: “College tuition rose 12% on average annually from 2010 to 2022, according to data compiled by the National Center for Education Statistics and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. After adjusting for inflation, college tuition has increased 747% since 1963.” This prediction I don’t make joyously, as two startups in my portfolio are in this space. (Luckily a small percentage.)

• Minnesota State Government … Complete DFL control will end — it has to! Hope you enjoyed watching that $18 billion surplus — your money — go poof! That measly $520 rebate check to taxpayers (per couple) was an insult. But you fellow Minnesotans already knew that. More people are leaving the state than the number moving in. It’s not just the weather.

• Minneapolis … The city will never be the same, I am convinced. And St. Paul, which is suffering almost as badly (worse with tax increases), shares the same fate. The population of both cities will continue to drop.

• Anywhere But the City … Within the state, the escape from the central Twin Cities to the metro area suburbs and rural MN will continue, as will the rise in values for lakefront property, hobby farms, and farmland. I included some great insights into the trend toward remote work outside the cities, from a national viewpoint, in a post I published in January 2021.

And one more prediction for good measure:

• The Media Business …. Let me go out on a limb 🙂 — the media industry will continue to contract in 2024. Many more jobs will be lost. Take a guess how many — then double it. One glaring reason: according to an October 2023 Gallup poll, a record-high number of Americans — 39% — say they don’t trust the media at all. That number has steadily increased since 2018.

So, on we go. (Yes, to a brighter 2025.)

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Postscript:

And in my continuing quest to counter the AI hype, I give you this:

A Technologist Spent Years Building an AI Chatbot Tutor. He Decided It Can’t Be Done.

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And Another Postscript:

I saw a  Wall Street Journal Saturday Essay recently (subscription required) entitled “Why Americans Have Lost Faith in the Value of College.” In it, they noted that the decline in undergraduate enrollment since 2011 has translated into 3 million fewer students on campus. Nearly half of parents say they would prefer not to send their children to a four-year college after high school.

Billionaires who slam higher ed also don’t do it any favors. Here’s Elon Musk on the topic in 2020:

“College is basically for fun and to prove that you can do your chores, but not for learning. I don’t consider going to college evidence of exceptional ability. In fact, ideally, you drop out. You don’t need college to learn stuff. Did Shakespeare go to college? Probably not.”

As a former English major, I can attest… 🙂

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And Yet ANOTHER Postscript:

Re: my VC prediction, here’s additional insight into the state of the industry:

VC Funding in 2024: High-Profile Departures, Layoffs and a Glut of Investors Struggling to Generate Returns | Inc.com

Okay, that’s enough postscripts for one post. I publish insights like these to my X account as well, so please follow me there, where I post daily. Over and out!

I Told You We Were in a Startup Boom

January 22, 2022 / / 1 Comment
man standing in fireworks

Photo by Rakicevic Nenad via Pexels.

And it seems to be raging even more. Thank you, Great Resignation. You’ve started something big.

A new survey from Digital.com has found 43% of Americans plan to start a business in 2022. Whoa, that would be a big number! With findings like this, it certainly appears entrepreneurship is continuing to gain ground as a career choice. And this news comes on top of almost 5,000,000 new businesses having been launched between January and November of 2021, according to the Census Bureau. I call it a major (positive!) trend coming out of the pandemic.

[When I say I told you, you may recall I wrote about this topic some five months ago, but these latest numbers just drive the point home even more.]

Of the 1250 adults surveyed across the U.S., more than 2 of 5 – or four in ten, if you prefer – said they were planning to launch a new venture. What’s more, though some of these will surely be “side gigs,” 55% of these aspiring new business owners say they will leave their current jobs during the year. Yes, quitting is a hot thing. The number of job openings has gone ballistic nationwide. Time to feel even more sorry for your neighborhood job recruiter, I guess.

Taking the Leap

It seems the decision to go it alone is just not as daunting as it used to be. People are increasingly looking to be masters of their own fate, this data is showing us. They are emboldened. And you know what’s especially surprising in the results of this survey? One-third of these planned new startups in 2022 will be launched by first time entrepreneurs.

What kinds of businesses will these founders be pursuing? The survey said the most popular categories are these: “retail” (presumably including ecommerce), which came in at 14.6%. followed by “business & finance” at 10.91%, and “computer & IT” at 10.17%.

“One of the drivers for The Great Resignation is that people want to feel a sense of purpose,” said Dennis Consorte, Digital.com’s small business expert. “Business ownership can give you the flexibility to pursue what matters to you in a way you believe will be most meaningful and impactful.”

Having It Both Ways

What about launching a new business without quitting one’s current job? Yes, it happens – a lot, traditionally. (I did it early in my career.) And this new survey finds that practice will likely be continuing this year. In fact, I daresay it will become more common. Some 29% of survey respondents don’t plan to leave their current job during 2022.

What’s one big factor at play here? It’s this: 26% of the employed and self-employed individuals who responded to the survey currently work fully-remotely, and 40% more work both remotely and in-person. As the survey sponsor so astutely notes: “Remote work may allow for more flexibility to simultaneously continue current work while beginning a new endeavor.”

Thank you Covid, I guess? It’s making entrepreneurship easier! Especially when that new business can be run totally online. And the survey found 32% percent of these planned new businesses intend to operate that way.

Why Start a New Business?

The survey asked respondents who plan to launch a new venture what is motivating them. The chart below tells the story.

chart showing reasons to start a business

How to Finance It?

It’s easy saying you’ll start a business, but a little thing like money always comes up. Well, get this: 13% of the entrepreneurs who responded to this survey reported having raised more than $100k for their planned new venture! Twenty-nine percent said they’ve raised more than $50k, 57% raised more than $25k, and 87% raised at least some amount of money. Female entrepreneurs reported raising slightly less money than men. What about investing some of one’s own money? That matters, too – and 34% of these entrepreneurs said they’ve invested between $6k and $50k of their own cash.

“If you want to pursue a startup full-time, then it’s a good idea to have at least 6 months’ savings and to adopt a frugal lifestyle,” said Digital.com’s Consorte. “Raising money can often help you move faster, but it can come at a high cost. Start with friends and family, and opt for models where you don’t have to give up too much equity in the beginning. You’re going to need it if you get to a point where you want to bring in institutional investors.”

Great advice there! Read more about this eye-opening survey here and here.

A final note: As the survey sponsor says, “Whether or not these plans turn to action remains to be seen. But what’s clear is the exploding interest in entrepreneurship.”

Amen! I, for one, will plan to follow up with some yearend data. Meantime, as 2022 gets underway – likely a strong recovery year for workers as the pandemic eases — be sure to support your local entrepreneurs!

 

The Startup Surge to End All Surges?

September 9, 2021 / / 1 Comment

Photo by Chuttersnap via Unsplash

As big trends go, I’d label this one blockbuster. Startup formation is on fire. It jumped 24% year-over-year in 2020 here in the U.S. Consider this from the Economic Innovation Group:

“A new Census Bureau dataset allows us to track early-stage entrepreneurial activity in almost real-time. For the duration of the pandemic, the Bureau’s Business Formation Statistics series has provided a detailed look at the number and character of new business applications on a weekly basis. Its findings suggest that the pandemic delivered a massive shock to American entrepreneurship that has seriously altered established trends in new business formation. Counter to expectations, 2020 shaped up to be the best year for business applications on record.” (Emphasis mine.)

bar chart of business applications

Then there’s this analysis from Oberlo:

“In 2010, the number of new business applications came in at 2.50 million. But as new business statistics show, in 2020, 4.35 million applications were submitted. That’s a whopping 74 percent more. It is also a 24.19 percent increase from 2019 and the biggest increase of the past decade by a mile.”

[Note: This post first appeared as an article on Grit Daily.]

I’ve experienced (and survived!) at least five technology/business cycles since going entrepreneurial and founding my consultancy more than three decades ago. And each of these cycles drove a startup surge that was considerable. (One, the dot-com cycle, saw a reversal for a few years after it peaked in 2000. So, surprisingly, did the startup surge driven by the advent of the smartphone era, but that was due to the financial crash of 2008.) I benefited greatly from every single one of those surges – getting to partner with so many wide-eyed entrepreneurs who were doing some crazy, innovative things and reaped some big rewards.

But this latest explosion of startups – call it the Covid Surge, the #WorkFromAnywhere Surge, the Digital Transformation Surge – whatever name you want to hang on it, this baby stands well above the rest.

line chart of new business applications

It’s More Than Just the ‘Cool Kids’

Today, it seems everybody wants to be a startup. Or at least work for a startup. Or start planning a startup. Or marry someone who has a startup. There’s even a term for those who wish they could do a startup, or who dream about doing it someday: “wannapreneur.”

Quite simply, these people just do not lust after a traditional career anymore. Seriously, when do you remember a time you felt this sorry for big corporations? They’re so unloved. (Wiping a tear.) Who in their right mind wants to work for one company for the rest of their career – or, hell, even five years anymore?

You, Mr. or Ms. Millennial, GenZer, GenXer, or even Boomer, have other ideas about how you want to live your life. In charge of your own destiny – that’s what. With a chance to build wealth well beyond what you could as an employee for the rest of your life.

Do I get an amen?

The Great Resignation: ‘Been Nice Knowing Ya, Boss’

What I say is driving this latest startup-surge-for-the-ages is not Covid, and not #WorkFromAnywhere, per se – rather, a by-product of it. It’s called freedom. People got a taste of freedom of when they want to work, and where. And, for many, how they do that work – without being under the nose of some boss.

Surely you’ve seen multiple stories by now about how so many people are quitting their jobs rather than go back to the office. LinkedIn alone will bury you in them. (Which raises the question, why do they write so much about all this quitting when it obviously affects their model? No question they’re quite dependent on big companies and their recruiting ads, and all the ladder-climbing robots who flog their corporate accomplishments on the platform. Makes you think LinkedIn is really going to need that freelance marketplace platform we keep hearing rumors about if it wants to keep growing anywhere near like it has.)

Granted, not everyone who’s quitting their job is doing a startup. Some are taking different jobs (duh). A slew of others would describe what they’re doing as simply “going freelance.” But many if not most of those are forming a legal entity to do that – the Company of Me – which shows how serious they are. It seems fair to assume the majority of these new entities are “solopreneurs” initially. That may or may not fit your definition of a startup – but, regardless, today we’re looking at huge company formation numbers overall, those that have already happened in 2020 and the similar numbers rolling in for 2021.

If you’re into economics, more great insights come from this article, including the following:

“There is a widespread perception that small businesses create the most jobs in the United States and other advanced economies. Research suggests that it is new businesses (emphasis mine), not small ones, that create these jobs (Haltiwanger et al. 2013). Studying the patterns in startup activity is hence an indicator of future employment growth.”

A Telling Finding

Amazingly, a survey just published by Digital.com found that one-third of workers who quit their jobs within the last six months started a business. That is just an unprecedented number in my experience!

graphic of workers starting businesses

More insights from the survey:

“Sixty-two percent of respondents say they are starting a business to be their own boss, and 60% say they are passionate about pursuing a business idea… Although many respondents say the pandemic influenced their decisions, they also cite several reasons for leaving the workforce. Forty-four percent of workers quit their jobs because they want better wages and benefits, 42% want to focus on their health, and 41% desire a more rewarding career. Sixty percent of new entrepreneurs learned about launching a startup business during the pandemic lockdown.”

Many startups begin life as personal service companies. Some of those actually go on to become product companies, whether hardware, software, even manufacturing businesses. A great many upstarts during the Covid era were founded as retail or ecommerce ventures. Online shopping went ballistic during the pandemic, and so many smart entrepreneurs took advantage of that.

It’s Easier Today

Historically speaking, entrepreneurs in the U.S. today have it pretty nice.

Consider all the factors that make their plight not nearly as difficult as it used to be:
• The low cost of starting a business
• The speed of creating a business entity (at least in most states; looking at you, California)
• Accessibility to capital, with a myriad of funding sources
• The low cost of capital these days
• And so many resources to learn how to do a startup, with organizations (both for-profit and nonprofit) practically tripping over each other to help entrepreneurs. These resources encompass many low-cost and even free services – coaching, classes, mentorship, accelerator programs, competitions with cash awards, and the list goes on.

Speaking of resources for starting a business, the outfit that sponsored the above survey, Digital.com, offers a wealth of links for new entrepreneurs.

So, What Are You Waiting For?

There’s never been a better time. But then, I’m biased.

 

I Wrote Another Article for Grit Daily… This Time on Startup Grit

January 7, 2021 / / 0 Comments

Grit Daily is a very cool media site based in NYC. It was founded by an amazing guy named Jordan French (seriously, read that bio). And he has a bunch of other great team members around him. (You should subscribe — support independent journalism you won’t find anywhere else!)

I was introduced to Jordan by an another amazing guy, who’s based right here in the Twin Cities: William Harris. He connected me with Jordan right before I headed off to SXSW in March 2019. Jordan was kind enough to accept me as a contributor, and I wrote my first piece for Grit Daily on my experience at that crazy event: “Partying at SXSW for Your Health.” I wrote another piece in the ensuring months that included one of my most favorite topics, Apple: “Amex, Apple vie for top spot in heated ‘metal card’ wars”... about my weird love affair with a couple of new credit cards.

Fast forward to the beginning of 2021 — what we all hope will be a much better year — I just published another article on Grit Daily. This one is called, “10 New Year’s Resolutions If You Think You Have a Startup In You.” It aims to help anyone who’s thinking they’re ready to quit their day job and go off and build something big. Hope you like it. Tell me if you do!

 

 

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