Graeme Thickins on Tech

Reflections & analysis about innovation, technology, startups, investing, healthcare, and more .... with a focus on Minnesota, Land of 10,000 Lakes. Blogging continuously since 2005.

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My 2023 Predictions Post

I asked AI to help me peer into the future. As is my custom, that resulted in me doing my top ten predictions:

robot contemplating the future

Robot contemplating the future, created by me using OpenAI’s DALL-E.

1) I predict, as things move so quickly these days, it will become much more common to see monthly predictions posts popping up. A year is now like a decade.

2) For the first year ever, there will be more articles written about AI than the number of orders of fries McDonalds will sell.

3) More than 60% of Americans will pay no income tax — oh, wait, that’s already the case.

4) Elon Musk will be richer at the end of the year than he is now. But he won’t care.

5) Twitter will go public (again), which will restart the IPO market. The media will refuse to give Elon Musk credit for that, but, you guessed it, he won’t care.

6) The NFL will end the year with more money than God — but God, not a huge football fan, will demand a recount.

7) The number of minutes of commercials on the average NFL game will be more than double the number of actual game minutes.

8) Gopher football will lose to Iowa again. (Kirk Ferentz beats PJ Fleck like a rented mule.)

9) I will not stop talking about football.

10) I might stop doing predictions posts.

p.s. Okay, wanna see what AI would really predict for 2023? Here’s a fun piece from a UK site:
We Made AI Predict What Will Happen In 2023, Here’s What It Said.

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UPDATE 1/2/23:
Speaking of restarting the IPO market, I see Forbes just published a piece naming their picks for companies that are likely to go public in 2023. They don’t have the balls to pick Twitter, as I do — haha! But one of theirs has Elon’s name all over it: SpaceX. There you go — one of the reasons why I said Elon will be richer at the end of the year! I posted the Forbes piece in my new Flipboard magazine, “IPO COMEBACK.”

I Couldn’t Help Myself – I Did It Again

When you sign up for a one-year subscription to the Lensa App (yes, I got sucked into that), you are naturally gonna want to have them fire up their generative AI technology more than once to create additional avatars — at least when you have some down time. (See my last blog post, Generative AI Made Me Do It.)

After all, Lensa says every batch of headshots or selfies you send in will get you different results — even from the same set of photos! So, what the heck, when I had an idle moment during Christmas week, I dug out some additional shots of me, myself, and I, then hit the button to upload them. And, ta-dah, the results are below — which seemed to come through faster this time, by the way.

Note I did not submit any shots that had a Christmas or winter theme, but the smarty-pants AI at Lensa found a way to get into the spirit of the season. Pretty fun. (But then I’m easily amused.)

I hope this second post shows you more of what this amazing technology is capable of doing,  in this wild new realm of generative art. And just think, what will the next version of the technology behind this app (GPT-4) bring us when it comes out?

By the way, a belated Merry Christmas and a very Happy New Year to you!

Nine avatars of Graeme

Generative AI Made Me Do it

Having lived through countless cycles of artificial intelligence hype (I mean promise) over the last few decades, I naturally couldn’t avoid getting sucked into the latest hotness: generative AI. The attention this new flavor is getting lately is almost deafening. And that includes tons of startup funding and rich valuations in recent months, both of which have been declining in other sectors of the technology industry (to say the least).

With my insatiable curiosity for all things tech, I’ve been seeing and reading a lot about generative AI, both as it applies to written content and to art. (You can read some  articles I curate regularly on this topic here.) In particular, I was struck by what the latest version of the popular  Lensa app was doing — specifically, offering AI-generated avatars for anyone willing to sign up on its app and pay a nominal fee. You just submit 10-20 selfie or portrait shots of your mug, and — voila! — get back a whole bunch of AI-generated avatars. Most are what I’d call photo-like illustrations. Actually, it wasn’t all that “voila” — it takes a while for Lensa’s computers to generate these things. Hours for me. I suppose it greatly depends on how many people are signing up on a given day.

Anyway, most of the 200 that I got back were… well, the word crap comes to mind. But I pulled out six that were kinda nice. And, ta-dah, here they are — how generative AI sees Graeme. (Yes, this is an entirely self-absorbed post!) Continue reading

This ‘Office Is Over’ Thing Has Been Coming for a Long Time

Marketwatch article headline

Article headline today (a recurring theme).

The media wants to make a huge deal about how going to work in an office is suddenly becoming passé — the media being mostly centered in New York City, I might add, which also happens to be the largest commercial real estate market in the U.S. But like many things the media gets wrong (or gets late), this trend has been going on for years. Especially for knowledge workers and those who work in the tech industry. They may try to pin it on “upstarts” like Airbnb and its cheeky CEO, Brian Chesky, in articles like this.

photo of Brian CheskyBut we all know this mentality, if you will, has been reality for millions of people for a decade or more.

I’ve been saying for years — ask my friends — that “my office is wherever my MacBook Pro is.” I don’t say it to be funny. It’s simply the truth.

Apple MacBook Pro M1

MacBook Pro M1 by Martin Katler via Unsplash

It’s a prime reason I’ve been an active investor in $AAPL for decades. That was even before it produced its first laptop — which, for you younger types, was called the PowerBook. It was life-altering.

That was my first Apple laptop, and I’ve owned more laptops from my favorite company than I can count since then. (Yes, I keep upgrading to the latest and best.) So, as a self-employed business

Apple Powerbook photo

Apple Powerbook, early 1990s – photo by Everyday Basics via Unsplash

owner, I’ve been doing this “office is anywhere” thing for a long, long time. Which makes me find this latest lament about the demise of the office to be quite amusing.

And who doesn’t get that this mentality/reality is hugely less costly than an office lease?

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p.s. To those of you who were smart enough to invest in $ABNB early on, my hat is off to you. Because it has certainly enabled a large part of the movement away from the traditional office, as it continues to do. And it has created no less than an industry of its own at the same time, enriching legions of property entrepreneurs.

Who Knew? Airbnb for Boats!

Boat ownership in Minnesota is second only to Florida (despite our weather being, um, less than half as good!). But here’s a better stat: Minnesota leads the nation in most boats per capita as of 2021.

Example of boat type available on Lake MinnetonkaOf course, we are famously called the “Land of 10,000 Lakes,” so it stands to reason. But Minnesota actually has 14,444 lakes of 10 acres or more, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. No wonder we love boating!

GetMyBoat is the world’s largest boat rental marketplace. Yes, it’s been called the GetMyBoat logoAirbnb of boats. Do people stay overnight in boats? Well, only the bigger ones that have such accommodations, I guess. But you can’t blame the company for liking the comparison. Most of their rentals, I’m suspecting, are a day at a time — though I’ve noticed week-long rentals are offered by some owners. But, surely, living on a big boat for a month while working remotely would be an intriguing escape for some digital nomads, no?

Big Money Can Float a Lot of Boats

chart of boat ownership by state

Top 10 States for Boat Ownership in 2020 – Source: Statista (click to enlarge)

It should come as no surprise that boat owners in Minnesota have discovered GetMyBoat. And I suspect many more will be, as expansion is definitely in the works for GetMyBoat. It just announced it has received $21 million in a Series B funding, with boat manufacturing company Yanmar Global, based on Osaka, Japan, taking a majority stake in the company. Yanmar has worked with GetMyBoat since 2018.

In the past two years alone, despite the challenges experienced by the travel and leisure industries worldwide, GetMyBoat says it has achieved 10X revenue growth and now “offers more than 150,000 boat rentals and water experiences across 9,300 destinations.”

Pontoon boat, Voyageurs Nat'l ParkGetMyBoat has a mobile app for iOS and Android that enables users to rent a boat right from their phones. In the news release, the company said, “Our mission is to make the joys of boating more affordable and accessible, and with this growth capital from Yanmar, we will be able to fully realize that dream.”

GetMyBoat is a fully remote company, with headquarters in Foster City, California. A large portion of its team is in South Africa, and it has employees in Toronto, North Carolina, Virginia Beach, and more.

The Local Connection

In Minnesota, the company currently has just one employee, but more than 85 watercraft owners are on the platform here as of March 2022. Of course, in the summer, I learned that number will increase a lot as owners “re-publish” their boats on the platform. SuperAirNautique boat“I’m in close contact with some of our owners here,” said Val Streif, marketing manager, based in Northeast Minneapolis. “Many of them have reported really great stories of growing their side hustle businesses, renting out their boats in the summer months or serving as full-time boat captains for their rentals.” Hmmm, is this a way to ease the payment pressure from those 15-year boat loans many have to take out to live their dreams on the water?

The only outside investor in GetMyBoat is Yanmar as of now. The company has been otherwise funded by the cofounders, serial entrepreneurs Sascha Mornell, CEO, and Example of houseboat available at some locationsRaf Collado. Quite the non-standard startup story! The company launched in 2013, and Yanmar invested for the first round in 2018.

All the Minnesota boats currently on the platform can be seen at this link. There’s a description for each listing saying what the owner/operator offers. The most popular listings in our state currently are on Lake Minnetonka, the St. Croix River, Prior Lake, and the greater Bemidji lakes area. (The photos in this post represent some of those offerings.)

The majority of GetMyBoat’s business is in the United States, but it has a large presence in the Caribbean, Canada, Mexico, and the Mediterranean, and Streif says the company is growing globally.Canoeing, somewhere in Minnesota

So what’s the range of watercraft sizes on the platform? I was told the smallest is a paddleboard (maybe I should rent mine?), and the largest are some superyachts (but none owned by Russian oligarchs, I have been assured!). And there are a whole lot of sizes in between — everything from kayaks and canoes to speedboats, cabin cruisers, pontoons, ski and wakesurfing boats, and even houseboats.

I asked Streif if all the larger boat rentals come with captain included. “No, people can choose boat listings based on this option,” she said. “I would say the vast majority of boat rentals on our platform are captained charters, but it’s not always the case. It will Big party on a Minnesota boatsay on the boat listing either ‘Captain is Included’, ‘Captain is Optional’, or ‘Captain is Not Included’.”

For those rentals with no captain, I asked if the cost is high because of insurance expense. “It’s not necessarily super expensive when it comes to insurance.” she said. “We have some insurance partners that offer bareboat, or non-captained, coverage at competitive rates. The key for boat owners is to make sure, for their own insurance policy, that it covers bareboat rentals when they’re renting out their boats to Ski boat on Gull Lake near Brainerd MNcustomers on the platform without a licensed captain.”

GetMyBoat sees itself as “the driving force in shaping the world of on-demand boating.” It says it’s on track to send 2,000,000 people boating before the end of 2022.

I have a feeling Minnesota will account for a growing number of those rentals as we get into the summer of 2022 — one we are all very much looking forward to, for obvious reasons.

See you on the lake!

 

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