Reflections & analysis about innovation, technology, startups, investing, healthcare, and more .... with a focus on Minnesota, Land of 10,000 Lakes. Blogging continuously since 2005.

Category: Minnesota (Page 1 of 6)

My 2024 Predictions Post

I have this tendency to publish a post each January about what I see coming in the New Year. I’m a little late this year (being it’s already January 20th), but that’s because the general mood has been leaning negative of late — not exactly motivating for an optimist like me.

I refused to use an AI-generated image this time. I instead chose this awesome photo by Nicole Avagliano via Unsplash.

 

Then again, my post in January 2023 wasn’t real upbeat, either. But that was more of a tongue-in-cheek exercise. The previous year, my post in January 2022 wasn’t a list of predictions, but rather focused on one big positive trend I couldn’t ignore: the startup boom. (Remember those good old days?) Going back to January 2021, I went full-on optimist, though had some fun with it, as we were coming out of that God-awful pandemic year and needed some levity.

Anyway, for this post, I finally got around to fleshing out the notes I’d been making over the past couple of weeks. I tend to not blurt things out — I like to think a bit first. (Call me crazy compared to  most bloggers… haha.) This year, I went beyond tech to some other topics I just find hard to ignore these days. So here goes:

AI … The hype curve has peaked. Enjoy the ride down into the trough of disillusionment. I won’t say anything more because… are there any more words to say at all that haven’t already been said about AI in 2023? A breather is needed for sure, because the hype has been getting out of control as we sit here in early 2024. (Note: I am not anti AI, I am anti *AI hype* and anti *AI washing*, which so many startups are doing in an attempt to raise money.) A funny recent quote I saw is from Philip Elmer-Dewitt, who runs the very popular Apple 3.0 news blog: “I’ve been following the A.I. beat since Ronald Reagan’s first term, and in my experience its champions have consistently over-promised and under-delivered. Large language models and generative A.I. are real things, but so are self-driving cars and they’re still running over pedestrians.”

Startups … According to AngelList, the startup formation number was well down in 2023 —  40 percent since 2021! That’s horrible. I predict the number will pick up somewhat in 2024. However, a meaningful reversal won’t come until 2025 with a new administration.

VC … In 2024, I will not be surprised if more VC funds shut down. (A big one did last month.) And check-writing from those that have been largely sitting on their hands in 2023 may not increase much. The numbers are sobering. Pitchbook reported in December that 38% of VCs “disappeared from dealmaking in 2023.” Pitchbook also reported that VC investors injected only $170 billion into startups in 2023, a decrease of nearly 30% from the $242 billion recorded in 2022. In 2021, the number was $348 billion. Not a pleasant trend.

Apple … My price target for $AAPL shares is $220 by yearend — on the strength of the iPhone 16 in the fall (call it “the AI phone”), advancements with the next Watch, and, yes, the initial success of “spatial computing.” No Apple Car anytime soon, friends. Which is fine with me.

Sports / National … Will gambling on NFL games get out of control? One senses that a crackdown must be coming. Right on cue, Minnesota legislators are trying to have sports betting legalized in our state. I for one am getting really sick of all the gambling hype!! On another topic, with TV commercial time absolutely ballooning to fund NFL largesse, I predict sales of low-cost DVRs, like the $79 Tablo unit (to record live TV and certain streaming channels), will boom — letting consumers without high-cost cable services (like that rascally DirecTV) inexpensively record and watch just the actual game, skipping through the mind-numbing amount of commercials they now blast at us. And no subscription is required.

Sports / Local … The Vikings will do better. Which isn’t saying much. And Gopher football damn-well better improve as well! 2023 was embarrassing. One highlight in 2024: we’re finally going to the Rose Bowl! Okay, it’s only a regular season matchup October 12th against UCLA (in their home stadium), as they become part of the Big Ten (Big 18!) this year. And another glaring college football topic: I fear, as many do, that NIL is ruining the sport (sigh). It’s the main reason Nick Saban resigned as coach at Alabama, Hey, we don’t need more “professional” sports!

Higher Ed … College enrollments will continue to drop nearly everywhere, but prices will of course not fall nearly as fast… if at all? That tells you all you need to know. How bad is higher education? Americans’ confidence in these institutions has dropped from 57% in 2015 to 36% in 2023, according to a July 2023 poll by Gallup. Here’s more, from Barron’s: “College tuition rose 12% on average annually from 2010 to 2022, according to data compiled by the National Center for Education Statistics and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. After adjusting for inflation, college tuition has increased 747% since 1963.” This prediction I don’t make joyously, as two startups in my portfolio are in this space. (Luckily a small percentage.)

Minnesota State Government … Complete DFL control will end — it has to! Hope you enjoyed watching that $18 billion surplus — your money — go poof! That measly $520 rebate check to taxpayers (per couple) was an insult. But you fellow Minnesotans already knew that. More people are leaving the state than the number moving in. It’s not just the weather.

Minneapolis … The city will never be the same, I am convinced. And St. Paul, which is suffering almost as badly (worse with tax increases), shares the same fate. The population of both cities will continue to drop.

Anywhere But the City … Within the state, the escape from the central Twin Cities to the metro area suburbs and rural MN will continue, as will the rise in values for lakefront property, hobby farms, and farmland. I included some great insights into the trend toward remote work outside the cities, from a national viewpoint, in a post I published in January 2021.

And one more prediction for good measure:

The Media Business …. Let me go out on a limb 🙂 — the media industry will continue to contract in 2024. Many more jobs will be lost. Take a guess how many — then double it. One glaring reason: according to an October 2023 Gallup poll, a record-high number of Americans — 39% — say they don’t trust the media at all. That number has steadily increased since 2018.

So, on we go. (Yes, to a brighter 2025.)

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Postscript:

And in my continuing quest to counter the AI hype, I give you this:

A Technologist Spent Years Building an AI Chatbot Tutor. He Decided It Can’t Be Done.

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And Another Postscript:

I saw a  Wall Street Journal Saturday Essay recently (subscription required) entitled “Why Americans Have Lost Faith in the Value of College.” In it, they noted that the decline in undergraduate enrollment since 2011 has translated into 3 million fewer students on campus. Nearly half of parents say they would prefer not to send their children to a four-year college after high school.

Billionaires who slam higher ed also don’t do it any favors. Here’s Elon Musk on the topic in 2020:

“College is basically for fun and to prove that you can do your chores, but not for learning. I don’t consider going to college evidence of exceptional ability. In fact, ideally, you drop out. You don’t need college to learn stuff. Did Shakespeare go to college? Probably not.”

As a former English major, I can attest… 🙂

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And Yet ANOTHER Postscript:

Re: my VC prediction, here’s additional insight into the state of the industry:

VC Funding in 2024: High-Profile Departures, Layoffs and a Glut of Investors Struggling to Generate Returns | Inc.com

Okay, that’s enough postscripts for one post. I publish insights like these to my X account as well, so please follow me there, where I post daily. Over and out!

Who Knew? Airbnb for Boats!

Boat ownership in Minnesota is second only to Florida (despite our weather being, um, less than half as good!). But here’s a better stat: Minnesota leads the nation in most boats per capita as of 2021.

Example of boat type available on Lake MinnetonkaOf course, we are famously called the “Land of 10,000 Lakes,” so it stands to reason. But Minnesota actually has 14,444 lakes of 10 acres or more, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. No wonder we love boating!

GetMyBoat is the world’s largest boat rental marketplace. Yes, it’s been called the GetMyBoat logoAirbnb of boats. Do people stay overnight in boats? Well, only the bigger ones that have such accommodations, I guess. But you can’t blame the company for liking the comparison. Most of their rentals, I’m suspecting, are a day at a time — though I’ve noticed week-long rentals are offered by some owners. But, surely, living on a big boat for a month while working remotely would be an intriguing escape for some digital nomads, no?

Big Money Can Float a Lot of Boats

chart of boat ownership by state

Top 10 States for Boat Ownership in 2020 – Source: Statista (click to enlarge)

It should come as no surprise that boat owners in Minnesota have discovered GetMyBoat. And I suspect many more will be, as expansion is definitely in the works for GetMyBoat. It just announced it has received $21 million in a Series B funding, with boat manufacturing company Yanmar Global, based on Osaka, Japan, taking a majority stake in the company. Yanmar has worked with GetMyBoat since 2018.

In the past two years alone, despite the challenges experienced by the travel and leisure industries worldwide, GetMyBoat says it has achieved 10X revenue growth and now “offers more than 150,000 boat rentals and water experiences across 9,300 destinations.”

Pontoon boat, Voyageurs Nat'l ParkGetMyBoat has a mobile app for iOS and Android that enables users to rent a boat right from their phones. In the news release, the company said, “Our mission is to make the joys of boating more affordable and accessible, and with this growth capital from Yanmar, we will be able to fully realize that dream.”

GetMyBoat is a fully remote company, with headquarters in Foster City, California. A large portion of its team is in South Africa, and it has employees in Toronto, North Carolina, Virginia Beach, and more.

The Local Connection

In Minnesota, the company currently has just one employee, but more than 85 watercraft owners are on the platform here as of March 2022. Of course, in the summer, I learned that number will increase a lot as owners “re-publish” their boats on the platform. SuperAirNautique boat“I’m in close contact with some of our owners here,” said Val Streif, marketing manager, based in Northeast Minneapolis. “Many of them have reported really great stories of growing their side hustle businesses, renting out their boats in the summer months or serving as full-time boat captains for their rentals.” Hmmm, is this a way to ease the payment pressure from those 15-year boat loans many have to take out to live their dreams on the water?

The only outside investor in GetMyBoat is Yanmar as of now. The company has been otherwise funded by the cofounders, serial entrepreneurs Sascha Mornell, CEO, and Example of houseboat available at some locationsRaf Collado. Quite the non-standard startup story! The company launched in 2013, and Yanmar invested for the first round in 2018.

All the Minnesota boats currently on the platform can be seen at this link. There’s a description for each listing saying what the owner/operator offers. The most popular listings in our state currently are on Lake Minnetonka, the St. Croix River, Prior Lake, and the greater Bemidji lakes area. (The photos in this post represent some of those offerings.)

The majority of GetMyBoat’s business is in the United States, but it has a large presence in the Caribbean, Canada, Mexico, and the Mediterranean, and Streif says the company is growing globally.Canoeing, somewhere in Minnesota

So what’s the range of watercraft sizes on the platform? I was told the smallest is a paddleboard (maybe I should rent mine?), and the largest are some superyachts (but none owned by Russian oligarchs, I have been assured!). And there are a whole lot of sizes in between — everything from kayaks and canoes to speedboats, cabin cruisers, pontoons, ski and wakesurfing boats, and even houseboats.

I asked Streif if all the larger boat rentals come with captain included. “No, people can choose boat listings based on this option,” she said. “I would say the vast majority of boat rentals on our platform are captained charters, but it’s not always the case. It will Big party on a Minnesota boatsay on the boat listing either ‘Captain is Included’, ‘Captain is Optional’, or ‘Captain is Not Included’.”

For those rentals with no captain, I asked if the cost is high because of insurance expense. “It’s not necessarily super expensive when it comes to insurance.” she said. “We have some insurance partners that offer bareboat, or non-captained, coverage at competitive rates. The key for boat owners is to make sure, for their own insurance policy, that it covers bareboat rentals when they’re renting out their boats to Ski boat on Gull Lake near Brainerd MNcustomers on the platform without a licensed captain.”

GetMyBoat sees itself as “the driving force in shaping the world of on-demand boating.” It says it’s on track to send 2,000,000 people boating before the end of 2022.

I have a feeling Minnesota will account for a growing number of those rentals as we get into the summer of 2022 — one we are all very much looking forward to, for obvious reasons.

See you on the lake!

 

Who Made the List of ‘The 120 Top People in Minnesota Tech on Twitter’?

Well, for one, me! A Google Alert showed up the other day on my name. It was for a post published on Webbiquity, the blog of a fellow named Tom Pick here in the Twin Cities. Gee, thanks, Tom! My profile pic was even featured in his graphic… the only one shot on a beach, I might add — haha! (By the way, the list is alphabetical, so I’m way down toward the end of the list.)

some of the people of the 'Top 120' list

I’ve known Tom for some years, being in the same general business (marketing). He’s an accomplished B2B marketing consultant and strategist. And he’s been blogging about as long as I have — maybe longer. I officially started writing a blog (meaning on an actual blogging platform) in 2005.  I’m now up to 690 posts! But Tom seems much more serious about his blog. He even has ads! So, maybe he’s making some money from it.

Tom was also early to jump on Twitter, probably about the time I did — in 2007. I resisted starting to tweet in 2006, after the much-hyped launch of Twitter at SXSW in March of 2006. But, several months later, I couldn’t resist “micro-blogging” any longer, so I gave in to the temptation in early 2007. Fast forward, I’m now well beyond 35,000 tweets — and I just can’t stop, haha!  (By the way, have you noticed that Twitter recently dropped that stat on all its user profiles? Why?? That’s too bad.)

Anyway, Tom did an admirable job — I’m sure that compiling the list was a lot of work. (And I thanked him.) I thought it was kinda strange that several people on the list had only 2 or 3 tweets in the last 90+ days… are you kidding? But not to judge here — hey, maybe those tweets were really, REALLY good ones? But I think about 10 or more of us were  listed as having 100+ tweets in the past 90 days. And I know for me it would have been more like 200. Just sayin’! Of course, sharing content of value is what I think Twitter his all about, and that’s really all I try to do.

Tom explains his methodology in his blog post (linked above). He had to walk a fine line and not make anyone mad — including some people he felt a need to mention, even though they aren’t very active on Twitter(??).  Maybe they like Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn  better? Or even Pinterest? Or they’re dancing on TikTok. Each to his own, I guess.

I will say that a lot of us active Twitter users on Tom’s list are very active on LinkedIn as well. In my case, I joined in August 2003 when there were only 18,000 of us there. Now, there are more than 700 million!

Another good thing Tom did in compiling his Twitter list: he left out those who are tweeting a lot about politics. Good call, Tom!

Startup Fundraising – What Works in Minnesota?

100-dollar bills in the snow

No word is uttered more often in startup circles, here or anywhere, than that dastardly F word. More ink is spilled and blather thrown around about it than virtually any other topic in the startup world. Who scored a round this week? Why is raising money so hard? When will we have more funding in our town (state, region)? Blah, blah, blah, and more blah. Multiple media outlets fall all over each other to breathlessly report on any successful VC raise (and even sometimes angel raises) as if it’s the equivalent of being drafted into pro ball or something. And I’m not just talking Minnesota — reporting on fundraising news and tracking the ongoing raises of startups is a veritable global industry unto itself.

Why is the topic so ever-present? Should we really be spending so much time talking and worrying about the process of attracting other people’s money? Or, as many founders might suggest, would you be better off to just shut up and bootstrap, focusing on attracting customers instead?

(Note: This article first appeared at Starting Up North, in two parts, both of which are included here.)

I wanted to probe the minds of a bunch of folks I know and admire here in my home state—founders and investors (many of whom also serve as mentors and advisors), plus some recently successful entrepreneurs— to get insights from their experience, and some useful advice.

What have they learned about raising money here in Minnesota? What works to get a startup going? What doesn’t? What’s realistic? What isn’t? Our objective was to try to help you better understand what really goes on out there behind the scenes, not just what you may hear, or read in various reports and stuffy press releases. And also to maybe break some stereotypes. [In my interviews, I asked the founders a similar set of questions, and of course, a different set of questions for the investors. The viewpoints of each didn’t always align exactly with their peers, but they were all quite forthcoming, for which I’m most grateful – and, hey, we all benefit, right?]

Think Before You Raise

One piece of advice that came up more than once about startup fundraising related to the question of why. “Make sure you really need it,” said Chip Pearson, cofounder of JAMF Software [which was acquired by Vista Equity Partners in late 2017 for… a large number] and now at Bootstrappers.MN. “There seems to be a missing component in people’s thinking regarding funding and business plans. If you don’t have a plan on how you can run your business without funding – albeit slower — then you should really spend the time on that problem and then raise money. The other thing is many people starting out see fundraising as a finish line and not a starting line. At best, fundraising is a distraction. At worst, it becomes the only thing that founders think about.”

This raises the question of, can you generate revenue? “Currently, Minnesota angels like to see traction in the form of revenue or meaningful market validation,” said Sara Russick, cofounder of Gopher Angels and a partner in the Capita3 fund. “They want to know the entrepreneur understands how to sell the product. This is a change from when we launched Gopher Angels in 2012. Then, angels were coming in earlier. Now, there are so many companies to look at, and a limited number of angel investors, so we’ve seen a shift in the stage where they want to come in. This is hard for early entrepreneurs because they need that really early, pre-seed capital. Gopher Angels does follow-on in about one-third of our companies, helping them get through that seed stage.”

One founder’s caveat: “A focus on revenue is the most important thing,” said Markus Mueller, cofounder of FashionBrain.ai, based in Duluth. “However, it’s important to focus on the right revenue — not all revenue is created equal. We coined the term ‘toxic revenue’ for that which is opportunistic and does not really grow the company to being profitable and sustainable. Revenue, yes — but only if it’s generated the right way and secures the future of the company.”

I asked another founder how she feels about focusing on customer revenue instead of raising outside investment. “It’s extremely important to pursue customer revenue right out of the gate,” said Mary Fallon, cofounder of Kidizen. “Outside investment is meant to accelerate the growth of a proven business model. No one will invest in you these days unless you have demonstrated that many customers will pay for your solution, however you define ‘payment’. It needs to be a repeatable interaction. In the ‘either/or’ scenario of this question, it comes down to how much of your business you’re willing to give up to accelerate that growth.”

Warning: Are You Ready?

Dave Russick, cofounder of Gopher Angels, offered this advice to founders: “One, do your own diligence on your future investors. Make sure you find ethical and non-predatory investors. Secondly, make sure you raise enough. Don’t low-ball your funding needs.  Raising takes a lot of time. A founder does not want to have to seek funding every six months. What if you don’t achieve your optimistic projections? And, finally, have a funding strategy. Know what your funding needs may be through the next two or three rounds, and plan accordingly.”

I asked Chip Pearson if founders understand how long it realistically takes to raise a round of angel or VC funding? “Not at all,” he said. “It is a tremendous distraction with a number of levels to it – pitch, term sheet, closing. I was surprised how long it took even with two different, highly capable, experienced CFOs running the process.”

What Fundraising Options Are Founders Pursuing in Minnesota, and Why?

Raising money from Friends & Family. Several I spoke with had something to say about this option. “Many professional investors love to see a friends and family round prior to investing,” said Chip Pearson..” The logic is that founders may not care about losing institutional money, but they don’t want to face a Thanksgiving dinner where they lost their parents’ money.”

Another viewpoint was offered by Jeff Robbins, a partner at Avisen Legal, and founder/organizer of investor group Angel Pollination. “Doesn’t matter. Good investors evaluate an investment potential on the opportunity, the team, and the progress, regardless of how the founders move the ball.”

Several of the founders I talked to for this story raised money from friends and family as their first outside money, including Markus Mueller of FashionBrain; Mary Fallon of Kidizen; and Susan Langer, founder of LiveGiveSave. More from them later.

Seeking out Angel Investors. For most startups, significant funds first come from this source. It’s a big topic here in Minnesota, discussed daily in every corner of our startup community, because, quite simply, it’s how the vast majority of pre-seed and seed-stage startup funding has traditionally happened here in our state.

A favorite question is this one: just how risk-averse are Minnesota angels? Do they deserve the reputation? “For the most part, Minnesota angels are conservative,” said Gopher Angels’ Dave Russick. “There are a handful making bets, but most that do are investing in low dollar amounts to spread the risk.” Gopher Angels now has about 80 members and meets every other month, said Russick, and between 40 and 50 attend a typical meeting, depending on the time of the year. “We live stream and record each meeting. There are usually up to an additional 10 to 15 participating via the live stream or watching the recording after the pitch meeting.”

Dave’s wife, Sara Russick, cofounder of Gopher Angels, has this view: “First, if you’re investing in any startup at all, you’re not risk-averse. Minnesota angels value quality. They’re smart and experienced, and bring an analytical lens to how they invest. They’re not ‘heart and gut’ investors, not chasing the next shiny object. This also means that they’re committed to the success of the startups they invest in. They give lots of time and make meaningful intros—they’re really available to the entrepreneurs.”

What’s the perspective of some of the founders I surveyed for this story regarding angels, and their personal experiences?

Eric Martell, cofounder of a new startup called Pear Commerce, who’s working out of the Osborn 370 startup hub in downtown St. Paul, has had a variety of experiences with angel investors – in both Minnesota and Wisconsin. “My first startup, EatStreet [Madison WI], has raised $49M to date, $45M of which was raised while I was there,” he said. “Those raises spanned regional angels to midwestern VCs to nationwide funds to international funds. Admittedly, I was riding shotgun to my cofounder, Matt Howard, who is still CEO at EatStreet. Locally, I raised $1.5 million from angels to get Gener8tor Minnesota off the ground. This was a great learning experience for both raising local money and also running a micro VC fund. Most recently, Pear Commerce participated in the Brandery startup accelerator and received an investment as part of our participation. We haven’t announced our other funding yet, but watch for some news coming!”

Eric continued: “Here in Minnesota, I’ve raised from both local angels and regional VCs and think both work well. I’ve found angels to have a slightly lower risk tolerance than VCs — which might surprise some people. I have a theory about this: If you’re an angel, unless you’re very fortunate to have investable time and cash to build a true portfolio, you probably will err on the side of more caution because you can’t make the sheer quantity of investments a fund makes — time and cash! If you have three shots in a game of horse, you’re probably not taking any of them from half-court. A fund has a bit more of a luxury to place safer bets — more traction — and take a couple of those half-court shots because, if one goes in, you know you’re going to cover the whole fund. I think the best path to more early-stage fundings in Minnesota is for more funds to supplement the incredible activity of our local angel scene, which I really admire. We need a few more local VCs. But, much love to all the existing local VCs!” [Note: we’re not addressing traditional VC in this article, as we’re focusing on early-stage fundraising.]

Susan Langer, founder of fintech startup LiveGiveSave, based in Red Wing, also found her way to obtaining angel funding: “To date, we’ve raised just shy of $500,000 from family, friends, and a local angel group through two convertible notes. The first note did not mandate conversion to the equity round; the second did.” What worked best for her here in Minnesota? “The community! I was able to build on and network through existing relationships, as well as tap into the growing ecosystem in the Twin Cities metro and Southeast Minnesota. It was a labor of love, as I met with old and new friends to share my vision. Meeting Neela Mollgaard, former executive director of Red Wing Ignite, was a godsend. [Neela is now head of Launch Minnesota, an initiative of the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development.] She connected me with valuable resources, all of whom offered, and continue to offer, measurable support — from mentoring and professional services, to pitch competitions and funding. Four years later, all have contributed to getting us where we are today – a working product in the App Store generating revenue.”

How did Kidizen get to angel funding and ultimately a VC round? “Like many startups, we began with seed money from family and friends and worked contract gigs to make ends meet,” said Mary Fallon, cofounder. “Concurrently, we pursued a few startup competitions, which helped subsidize our bootstrapping and helped us get our name out. Google for Entrepreneurs was one of the competitions that really propelled us down our path. In turn, that helped us raise our first round of convertible debt from angel investors. We followed up with a Series A round led by Origin Ventures in Chicago. We’ll be looking to raise our next round in 2020.”

Markus Mueller of FashionBrain: “Under our previous name (Tryon Media), we did a family and friends round, which obviously was after we had invested our own savings in the company. We then also raised angel funds — about $2 million from 2014 through 2016. Some investors also carry notes with the option to convert to equity.”

What has his experience been with angel investors in the Duluth area? “When I first convinced a few local angels to invest, they opened their networks to help me identify other potential investors. Several of our investors have invested more than once, and a few have more than tripled their initial investment.”

Alternatives: What About Bootstrapping?

I asked some founders how they scraped by early on. Is bootstrapping a viable option? How far can it take you? “We grew my previous company from $3000 pooled from the founders to mid-six-figure revenue per year while we were still students [at UW-Madison],” said Eric Martell of Pear Commerce. “I think timing and opportunity need to line up, and it’s totally possible. But my current company could never exclusively bootstrap to scale. It really depends on what you’re building that determines if that’s a viable path.”

Susan Langer of LiveGiveSave: “Before raising funds from family and friends, Red Wing Port Authority, Southern Minnesota Initiative Foundation, and a small amount from a newly-formed local angel group, my husband and I depleted our emergency and retirement savings. I obtained loans secured by our home and life insurance. In hindsight, I would not have done that with our home, as it created a significant barrier for us when we wanted to get a home equity loan to pay off personal debt.”

Markus Mueller of FashionBrain told me how he bootstrapped: “We started out in a floral-wallpaper adorned former master bedroom and moved out when we were five people, then moved to a 300 square foot office space in Duluth’s Canal Park. We still bootstrap on office space and are actively considering remote work for the entire team and company. We also bootstrapped in other ways. However, it’s wrong to think or assume that bootstrapping can help you avoid fundraising. We bootstrapped to be conscious of the use of funds — not to avoid having to raise funds.”

Mary Fallon, cofounder of Kidizen, which began in 2010, had some great insights: “If you’re choosing the bootstrapping path, you’re willing to take little or no salary while working more hours than you’ve ever worked before. It’s often not a choice but a decision you make based on the passion for your solution paired with a lack of independent wealth. It helps to have a strong support system made up of those who are most affected by this decision, which for me is my family. When Dori, my cofounder, and I started out, we were told that we weren’t your typical startup cofounders. ‘Typical’ meant you were young, male, and willing to sleep on peoples’ couches to circumvent rent or a mortgage. We had husbands and young children and were not in our twenties. We failed many times on our path to now. Bootstrapping is viable, yes – if you can produce strong revenue growth while keeping operating costs low. Then your chances of scaling without outside funds are better.”

Another amazing, more recent story about bootstrapping comes from Mary Kay Ziniewicz, founder of Bus Stop Mamas, which I wrote about here.

Two Different Funding Approaches – One Repeat Tech Entrepreneur

Daren Klum is a Minnesota tech entrepreneur who first cofounded LiquidCool Solutions (formerly known as Hardcore Computer) in 2006, based in Rochester, MN. More recently, he founded Secured2, Minneapolis, a data security company. What did he do differently in those experiences? “In both my startups, we initially followed a similar path. We raised capital from friends, family, and small funds. In the case of LiquidCool, we went the VC route for our Series A and B. At Secured2, we’ve bypassed the dilutive nature of VC. Instead, we’re doing alternative financing to scale the business, working with the largest sell-side M&A firm for software companies in the country.”

What has been his experience finding capital here in Minnesota? “We had tremendous support from friends and family in Minnesota for the early rounds in both my companies. However, the bulk of the $40 million we raised for LiquidCool came from out-of-state sources – in North Dakota, Wisconsin, and California. And most of the $6 million raised so far for Secured2 has also come from out-of-state — Virginia, Ohio, and Michigan. We’ve found larger capital amounts to be very hard to find in Minnesota.”

Klum said he bootstrapped both his companies in the early years. “Without showing a proof of concept and customers, we couldn’t ask anyone to invest. Was bootstrapping a viable option? Yes, I recommend all entrepreneurs bootstrap to minimize the risk for their investors,” he said. “Bootstrapping can replace a seed round if you do it while you have a job. I built my first company this way. I worked a full-time job and, at night in my free time, I would build my new business. Once I had enough built to justify investment, I was able to raise capital and quit my day job.”

How did Klum find and connect with angel investors? “I found all my angel investors through my network of friends, family, and colleagues. As well, I’ve been fortunate to get a couple investments from customers and relationships I built while growing the business.”

How long can a funding round take? “In the early stages, it can go very fast, because you’re generally working with people you know – friends, family, colleagues,” Klum said. “The more time-consuming capital raising comes when you get to your Series A and B rounds. The stakes are higher, there’s more due diligence, more risk, and obviously a lot more capital in play. So, generally, any round past your seed round logically takes more time to land. It can be months or even years to close larger funding amounts. It depends on the type of financing — debt, equity, or convertible.”

How Easy (or Hard) Is It Getting That First Check?

I asked Daren Klum what it was like taking that first investor check. “The first check is always the hardest – it’s usually family, and can be a very sobering experience. Once you take someone’s money, you’re committed and there’s no turning back. I see far too many first-time entrepreneurs take that first check, and then the going gets hard and they quit. Quitting is final. If you quit, you can’t reach success.”

Another viewpoint came from Markus Mueller, the founder of FashionBrain. “Getting the first check wasn’t hard at all — at least it didn’t feel that way. But there was a lot of effort that went into preparing the first pitch deck and engaging potential investors. Pre-work is key — by the entire team. They had my back, as the CEO and key fundraiser. Without their help, I would not have been able to do it. It does not get easier – in fact, I believe it gets harder. So, my advice is to focus and raise money as fast as possible with all effort on fundraising, and then return to driving the company’s business development. I made the mistake to raise funds over more than two years — and I regret the lack of focus the came with that. Know exactly how much money you need — raise exactly that. Don’t oversubscribe by more than 10%, for example. And use the funds to grow your company, to create value. Then, if necessary, raise more money at a higher valuation.”

How hard does Eric Martell of Pear Commerce say it is to get that first investor check? “I think this is a total case-by-case question. It was super hard to get early investors at EatStreet, then easier. I’ve seen companies exactly the opposite. You might have a very compelling vision or track record and get first checks easily, but then need to prove results. Likewise, if you’re a Minnesota tech company doing over $10 million in revenue, you’re flying in some rarified air and are likely to get a ton of love on a larger round.”

Rob Walling is the founder of TinySeed, a startup accelerator designed for bootstrappers. (Previously, he founded Drip, acquired by Minneapolis-based LeadPages, which adopted the Drip name.) I asked him if raising friends and family money is important before looking elsewhere. “Prior funding is less important than how much traction – for example, revenue – a startup has. I’d rather write a check to a founder who is capital efficient enough to make it to revenue without raising any funding.”

Should VC funding be so glorified? When is it the right way to go? “VC funding is simply one way to start a company,” said Rob. “It should not be viewed as a goal or having ‘made it.’ VC funding comes with a pretty major set of drawbacks, and founders should know what they are getting into before signing a deal.”

Can the Crowd Help?

A non-traditional option some have pursued here in Minnesota is crowdfunding. Since Kickstarter entered the national scene several years ago, many founders have tried it or its competitors. But, frankly, only a few startups in Minnesota have had great results. That may be changing. Wes Wierson, cofounder of Rochester startup LEAH Labs, is out to cure cancer in dogs. Here’s what he had to say: “Instead of Kickstarter, where you get a deal on a new tech gadget, the crowdfunding platform we chose—WeFunder—actually gets you equity in the companies you support. It’s been amazing for us. In addition to validating the market through testimonials of angel investors who know we’re building a cool product. and pet owners donating on behalf of their fallen furry friend, it brings much-needed seed investment to our business.”

Traditional VC did not fund Wes’ business early on, after he went through a recent biotech class in the famed Y Combinator accelerator program in Mountain View, California. “I think it’s because they really don’t understand our technical science, and, secondly, they’re more risk-averse than they want you to believe. With equity crowdfunding, we’re able to ignite our business based on the passion of dog owners, and the support of angel investors who understand the high reward market we’re building.”

What’s The Current State of the Minnesota Angel Community?

“When we founded Gopher Angels seven years ago, the angel community was limited to hard-to-find individuals or one angel fund,” said Dave Russick, cofounder. “Gopher Angels was able to provide a home for individuals and micros funds to collaborate on deals, which helped fill the funding gap for seed and early-stage companies. Frankly, there was still a greater need for funding than could be provided by GA. Over the last few years, the funding landscape has improved greatly. There are several new funds available to entrepreneurs, many of whom target specific industries. We also now have active accelerators such as Gener8tor and Techstars Farm to Fork that provide seed funding while helping the companies prepare better for the funding chase. There are also multiple individuals and organizations that are serving to connect founders and investors. We even have some funds such as Urban Innovation that have set up offices in the Twin Cities. In short, the angel investor scene here has changed tremendously and changed for the better!”

Joy Lindsay, partner, Sofia Fund: “I think the angel community in Minnesota is healthy and growing. I’ve been an angel investor for 20 years, and it’s probably the most active I’ve seen during that time. There are many new participants to the angel community. When we raised the original Sofia Fund, we purposely targeted women to join the fund who had never invested in the asset class before. These are people who are not only bringing their money but their expertise and network to engage with companies and help them grow.”

She continued: “Dave and Sara Russick have done an amazing job growing Gopher Angels. I was just at their meeting last week. Again, these angels are smart, engaged individuals from a variety of backgrounds and industries. Many have never invested before, but they join the group and learn from each other. The Minnesota Angel Tax Credit has also been a driver of bringing new people to angel investing. As we all know, investing in startups is very high risk, so anything that can be done to support that activity the better. Minnesota has a rich heritage of giving back. While that has historically meant we are very philanthropic, more and more I also see successful entrepreneurs and corporate executives giving their time and talent to invest in and then to mentor entrepreneurs. Like philanthropy, this work is critically important to the economic growth of the state.”

How does startup attorney Jeff Robbins, who also heads the Angel Pollination investor group, assess the current state of the Minnesota angel community? “I’d say better educated on investing and increasingly not doing so. I would add some color to that – our prime angel community is aging out. They’re moving to warmer climates and investing in funds rather than companies. And the recession has delayed the emergence of next-gen angel investors.”

Is that a clarion call to younger angels out there – time to step up?

Sara Russick of Capita3 (and also a cofounder of Gopher Angels) assesses the current situation thusly: “There are so many awesome entrepreneurs who are working so hard. Many more of them deserve funding than are actually getting it. A small number of angel investors can’t fund them all – it’s that simple. We have tons of resources to help grow the startup community. We need more resources pointed at growing the angel investor community.”

Mary Grove, Minnesota-based partner in Revolution’s Rise of the Rest Fund, sees things in a similar vein: “Minnesota’s startup ecosystem has scaled impressively over the last half-decade. It’s an attractive place to start and scale a company. From the density of Fortune 500s to the talent pool to the capital efficiency of building here. That said, there is still a large gap at the early stage in the funding landscape, especially at the Seed and Series A stage across most sectors.”

What Does the Future Hold for Startups Trying to Raise Capital in Minnesota?

Rob Walling of TinySeed says things look good: “The more Minnesota startups that have success, the more our ecosystem grows. I’ve been in town for three years, and, even during that short time period, I have noticed more events, more startups, and generally more action in our local startup ecosystem.”

Sofia Fund’s Joy Lindsay also likes what she’s seeing. “Raising money for a startup is never easy. But I think there are a few trends in Minnesota that are making it easier. Most of the very early capital invested in startups comes from investors in the general geographic region. We do have an active and growing angel community. But what is also encouraging to me is the growth of new venture funds. In recent years, Capita3, Matchstick Ventures, Great North Labs, The Syndicate Fund, and even funds like the student-run Atland Ventures have all closed new funds to invest in seed and early-stage rounds. These funds didn’t exist five years ago and are actively investing in companies, many of which are based in our state. Then there are funds like Vensana Capital, led by seasoned VC Kirk Nielsen, who recently closed a $225-million fund. Obviously, that capital won’t all go to Minnesota companies, but it’s great to have Kirk based here. We could use more of these large Series A and Series B venture capital funds in our state, but it’s encouraging to see so many new funds starting.”

Joy continued: “One area that excites me is the focus on getting all members of our community interested in entrepreneurship and investing. The Sofia Fund was one of the very first groups to focus on growing the number of women angels, and then investing in women-led companies. Capta3, another local fund, focuses on women-led companies in healthcare. Lunar Startups is a local incubator doing great work to support women, people of color, and other high-potential entrepreneurs. The Aspen Institute, the Center for Economic Inclusion, and the Case Foundation recently held a summit to discuss ‘inclusive investing’. Here in Minnesota, MEDA has provided capital to minority entrepreneurs through its $1 Million Challenge.”

Does attorney Jeff Robbins see things improving? And how do we compare to other states? “Improving over the 2008 recession days? Yes. Minnesota fares well among Midwestern states, and we do have cool companies.”

“The future is bright,’ said Sara Russick. “We’re turning a corner and growing from a nascent entrepreneur ecosystem to one that is being supported from all sides, taking advantage of Minnesota’s awesome people, education, big corporations, and communities. Our state is attracting attention from investors from around the country because they see what’s happening here. As more of our startups begin to mature, we could see the Series A/B gap grow. I hope we see many more Series A and B funds come in to support their growth, and keep our innovation and talent here in Minnesota.”

Mary Grove of the Rise of the Rest Fund provided this perspective: “The good news is, more investors are paying attention and seeking opportunities to establish a local presence here or simply seek out local startups to fund. I believe we’ll continue to see expanded access to capital and the opportunity for more innovative companies to start, and equally importantly, to scale and stay here. Our recent Twin Cities Startup Week was a great example of this trend. I connected with investors and startups alike who had flown in from other cities in the region as well as the coasts to participate. At Revolution’s Rise of the Rest Seed Fund, we’ve invested in six Twin Cities-based companies. I’m proud to be based here and part of the Minnesota entrepreneurial community.”

[Note: The second Rise of the Rest Seed Fund was announced October 28 – another $150 million fund focused on backing entrepreneurs outside traditional coastal hubs.]

The Big Exit: Can Minnesota Expect Another One Soon? Why or Why Not?

(Note: This story originally appeared at Starting Up North. It has been updated to include one more Minnesota tech company that has reached a valuation of more than $1 billion, and another that almost did in 2014.)

Has all this talk about “unicorns” and billion-dollar exits got you down? Doggone it, Minnesota needs some, right? So we can tell our friends in other states, “No, really, we have an awesome startup scene here! We aren’t Flyover Land.” You tell them we have some hot startups going on – you just haven’t heard of them yet. “You just wait – we’ll show you!”

Well, when exactly will we do that? That’s the main question we raise here, as well as why do we want such big exits? And we have some great local leaders who were kind enough to weigh in and give me their take on the subject.

What is an “exit,” anyway? One of three things: it’s when a company sells, has an initial public offering (IPO)… or, um, goes out of business. We’re gonna skip that last one! And the IPO thing we’ll touch on only briefly. We’re mainly talking here about companies getting acquired — by another company (strategic buyer) or a private equity (PE) fund — for multiples of the amount of money that’s been invested in them.

Minnesota Does Okay

First of all, we do have many successful exits here in our state on a regular basis. Granted, not many at $1 billion-plus, at least not what we might consider recent startups — let’s say less than 10 years old. Frankly, there aren’t any here within that young age range that have yet had what we’re defining as a Big Exit. Nor might many people think there will be any, outside the medtech/healthcare sector. Here are seven examples of Minnesota billion-dollar-plus company transactions or valuations in recent times:

• Cray Research was just acquired a couple of months ago by HPE for $1.3 billion. It was founded in Minnesota, sure — but that was 40+ years ago, when Control Data gave Seymour Cray some money to go off on his own. (It still has a presence in our state, and I’m guessing its name is likely to remain on that big building adjacent to the Mall of America for some time.)

• Ceridian, which also still has a major presence in Minnesota, did an IPO in April 2018 that valued it at almost $3 billion. But, again, this is a company that was founded in our state almost 40 years ago as a unit of Control Data.

• ConvergeOne, based in Eagan MN, was acquired by CVC Capital Partners for $1.8 billion in a deal that closed in January 2019. It’s a global IT and managed service provider of collaboration solutions. Founded in 1993, it went public in February 2018 and has more than 2200 employees worldwide, including a few hundred in Minnesota.

• Ability Network, a healthcare company in Minneapolis, was acquired by Inovalon in March 2018 for $1.2 billion. It provides secure web and private networks for healthcare providers and was founded in Minnesota way back in 2000.

• SPS Commerce, a retail supply-chain SaaS company that traces its beginnings to 1987, went public in 2010 at a valuation of $131 million. It now has a market cap of $1.8 billion and employs 1200, more than a thousand of which are based in its downtown Minneapolis headquarters.

• Help Systems, a low-profile IT management company based in Eden Prairie founded in 1982, was valued at $1.2 billion when a private equity firm in Palo Alto CA acquired a controlling interest in 2018. The company has more than 700 employees, about half of which are in Minnesota and neighboring states.

• Proto Labs, based in Maple Plain, was founded in 1999. It grew rapidly, then went public in 2012 at a valuation of $371 million. It  achieved a market cap of $1 billion in early 2013 and has stayed solidly above that level since then, with a valuation most recently of about $2.5 billion.

But the fact remains: no Minnesota startup has achieved a billion-dollar exit or valuation in less than ten years from its founding. None has reached the “unicorn” status that’s been so vaunted in recent years. (Whether you believe that matters or not.)

However,  one came very, very close in late 2010. That’s when data-storage tech company Compellent was acquired by Dell for a cool $960 million. Yes, we will call that a biggie for Minnesota! It was founded in 2002, so it was a very fast eight years to get to the Big Exit. (And I’ve heard this one created up to three or four dozen millionaires. Not too shabby.)

Another Minnesota firm that almost reached the magical threshold was Digital River, based in Minnetonka. In 2014, it was acquired for $840 million by PE firm Siris Capital (NYC) and taken private.  It was one of the original Internet startups in our state and went public in 1998 at a valuation of $142 million. Its valuation today? That’s your guess.

But How Are Other Non-Coastal States Doing?

Let’s get envious now – and talk more recent acquisitions. Some of our fellow Midwestern states have major bragging rights over us when it comes to unicorn-level acuisitions of newer startups:

• Indianapolis’ ExactTarget was acquired by Salesforce for $2.5 billion in 2013. That acquisition has done, and continues to do, great things for that city and state.

• Ann Arbor’s Duo Security was acquired by Cisco for $2.35 billion in 2018. And, of course, the startup community there crowed about what that meant to them.

• Columbus Ohio’s CoverMyMeds was acquired by McKesson for $1.1 billion in 2017. This exit was the biggest in Ohio history.

• Chicago’s Clever Safe was acquired by IBM for $1.3 billion in 2015. It was one of the biggest exits in Chicago tech history and created 80 millionaires.

There have been billion-dollar exits in many other non-coastal cities and towns, too – Raleigh NC, Nashville TN, Lisle IL, and Boulder CO come to mind. You can read about many here, going back over the past decade or more.

Why Hasn’t Minnesota Had Many Billion-Dollar Exits Compared to Other States?

“We maybe have more than many think,” said Jeff Hinck, general partner at Rally Ventures, citing two of the Minnesota company transactions listed above. “And JAMF, which was acquired for a bit under, could sell for that today,” he noted. [PE firm Vista Equity Partners bought a controlling interest in the firm in 2017.] “Compared to the traditional powerhouse states like California, Massachusetts, New York – yes, (we’ve had) far less.” But he thinks we’re trailing other states by not that much. “The reason we have less big exits than some states is that we frankly have fewer startups. Austin, Boulder/Denver, and DC have far more startups, so far more exits. The startups-to-large-exit ratio is probably no different in Minnesota than in those cities — although it is versus those powerhouse states.”

Scott Burns, cofounder and CEO of Structural, sold his previous startup, GovDelivery, in 2016 to Vista Equity Partners (which has rolled it into Granicus). He has a take on why we don’t have more Big Exits: “Investors (here) sitting on a lot of upside are more likely to take an exit before the billion-dollar threshold. I do think we should take more credit for what we have, however. Look at SPS Commerce, which has somewhat quietly grown into a company with a $1.8B market cap.”

Michael Gorman, a managing director at Split Rock Partners, points out our state represents only about 1.5% of the U.S. population. “On most measures, we punch well above our weight based on the level of education, corporate depth, and so forth.” He brought up another local company to watch: “Bright Health has recently raised significant money — not yet an exit — at a healthy valuation, but I don’t know the exact figure.” That firm, plus the recently acquired JAMF, and the Minnesota billion-dollar exits we cite above “collectively still employ thousands of people in Minnesota and have generated great wealth and opportunity,” Gorman added.

So, Why Do We Want Big Exits?

I asked Justin Kaufenberg, cofounder and CEO of SportsEngine. His firm was acquired by NBC Sports in 2016 for an undisclosed – let’s just say “large” – amount: “It takes decades to build an ecosystem capable of growing unicorns,” he said. “You need a round of exits for first-time founders, who then go on to participate in the funding or building of the next round of companies. That second round then enjoys more seasoned founders and executives and more aggressive and patient investors.”

Similar comments came from VC Michael Gorman. [Note: his fund has been an investor in SPS and Help Systems.] “Great exits help reinforce the virtuous circle of innovation, whereby talent is developed, wealth is created, and the innovation capacity of the region is enhanced,” Gorman said. “When a company generates a great exit, it helps the immediate employee beneficiaries and creates additional financial freedom to pursue the next entrepreneurial impulse.”

What Do Other Midwestern States Have That We Don’t?

One M&A professional in Minneapolis had some pointed words in this regard. Rob Griggs is a regional VP for Seattle-based Corum Group, a 30-year old firm focused in sell-side M&A, primarily for small to mid-sized software firms, with more than 300 successful transactions to date. He gives tech-based M&A presentations multiple times per year in fourteen cities across the Midwest. In his previous life, Griggs raised significant funding for multiple startups. “My take is that, locally, we don’t have the focused approach that many of these communities have from universities, incubators, angel investors, successful entrepreneurs, and corporate VCs leveraging resources to build a thriving early-stage investment cycle. When you have even local government assisting, the returns, rewards, and community growth follows. Here, we just don’t have that approach, sadly, in my experience.”

Scott Burns offered a Midwestern example he’s familiar with: “Structural has an office in Indianapolis, so I spend a lot of time there. It had a terrific exit with ExactTarget building up there, executing a successful IPO, and then being sold to Salesforce for $2.5B… this infused a lot of capital and talent into the local tech ecosystem that’s led to a surge in tech startup activity and to a large Salesforce office in town, as well as satellite offices for other companies with headquarters elsewhere.”

Well, yeah, we could use some of that here!

Minnesota Angel Investors Stepping Up?

Are Minnesota founders who have had successful exits doing as much angel investing as their counterparts in other Midwestern cities?

“Not that I can see,” said Griggs. “The few I know pretty much leave town with their cash, more or less. They lose their appetite for risk once they get theirs, unfortunately. A few do a couple of deals, but I don’t see a strong mentor network, or aggressive angel network like I’ve seen in other parts of the country. Cincinnati and KC are very strong at local support.”

Scott Burns has a refreshingly different view. “I’ve seen a surge in founders with successful exits investing locally… putting money back into the community. I don’t have benchmark data to compare us to other communities, but I like the trend in the Twin Cities.”

There’s Something Crazy About Startup Funding These Days

Dave Dalvey, managing general partner at Brightstone Venture Capital, cites some startling figures. “We’re living in a capital marketplace with record high amounts of uninvested capital held by PE and VC funds looking for high-quality investments. The amount of capital raised and as-yet uninvested is referred to as ‘overhang’ or ‘dry powder’ in the industry. According to a recent report, the entire PE industry has more than $2 trillion in dry powder, with $1.2 trillion of this being held by PE buyout-style funds, and just over $400 billion in the hands of VC fund managers.” Most of this overhang lives in two geographic areas, he said, where the competition is particularly tight: the Bay Area and the New York/Boston corridor.

“History has proven that market environments where too much money is chasing too few deals is never a good thing for investors and their ultimate fund returns,” Dalvey continued. “Investors fearful of missing the next big deal throw everything they learned in business school about valuation out the window and buy into this trend towards unicorn pricing without much fundamental valuation support.”

All these competitive market factors, he said, “help build and feed the unicorns on the front end, and keep them fat and happy through the early years of their little unicorn lives — and even through their IPO years.” And he noted we’ve seen close to a dozen unicorn IPOs already in 2019. However, the number of IPOs overall is way down, so that route to an exit would appear to be unlikely for most.

Another surprising fact Dalvey cited, from the Pitchbook/NVCA Q2-2019 report: VC mega-deals (raises of $100 million or more) rose to 208 deals in 2018, or 44% of all deal volume. In 2013, there were just 36 mega-deals, or 13% of all deals. Yikes!

But Maybe We Shouldn’t Be Focusing on Unicorns and Billion-Dollar Exits

Joe Payne is the CEO of Code42. Previously, he led Eloqua to an IPO and, soon after, an acquisition by Oracle in 2013 for close to a billion dollars. “For starters, if you’re building a company, you’re not trying for a billion-dollar exit — you’re trying to build a great, lasting company with a billion-dollar valuation. It’s a subtle but important difference. Minnesota has plenty of billion-dollar companies across many industries that started as nothing and are now worth that kind of money. There is much to be proud of. What the state needs now is to replicate that historical success and apply it to technology companies.”

Another local player doesn’t pay much attention to all this billion-dollar talk. Cathy Connett, an angel investor and managing partner of Sofia Fund, said this: “We may not have had as many billion-dollar exits, but it’s important to look at exits generally in light of the amount of money raised to achieve those exits. First, you need to remove the ‘unicorns’ from the data set. Almost a third of the monies raised nationally in 2017 went into a few unicorns, which are driven largely by hype and are on the coasts. If you look at the data after the unicorns are removed, I think a big factor is our more efficient use of capital in Minnesota. Considering the money invested in Minnesota companies and the cash-on-cash return achieved on that money, you’ll find our companies perform on par, if not better, than other areas.”

Are Tech Company Valuations in Minnesota Simply Lower Than in Other Midwestern States?

“Not at all,” said SportsEngine’s Kaufenberg. “I don’t think there’s any real difference across the country right now. The best companies are all raising money in a fairly predictable and narrow band of valuation, and those deals are competitive.”

VC Michael Gorman agreed: “It’s not my experience that tech valuations in Minnesota are systematically lower. Strong teams and ideas have attracted capital at market rates here.”

I asked Kaufenberg if he’s seen any trend in the valuations of tech companies based in Minnesota. “There’s a lot of competition for the best companies,” he said. “Those growing at 300% in the early stage and 100% in the growth stage are having their valuations pushed up to historic levels. However, that next tier of companies can have a harder time, and valuations in that cohort feel as though they’ve actually come down across the country.”

Scott Burns had a comment in this regard: “We might get slightly lower valuations at the early stages, but even that fairly reflects the fact that we have fewer entrepreneurs with big exits in their past starting new ventures here.”

Will We Have More Billion-Dollar Exits in Minnesota in Coming Years?

Michael Gorman of Split Rock Partners believes so. “We will to the extent we have companies playing in very large markets, led by excellent teams, boasting tech that leads the category, and demonstrating extraordinary growth and/or substantial profitability.”

Jeff Hinck of Rally Ventures didn’t hesitate: “For sure – we have a couple that are already capable of that. We have a lot more that could be, and it will depend on execution and valuation environment at the time of the exit.”

A former VC who was just named head of the Minnesota High Tech Association (MHTA), Jeff Tollefson, had this to say: “While it would clearly benefit Minnesota’s economy to have more billion-dollar exits, I think we will see many more successful singles and doubles rather than big home runs, with exit values in the hundreds of millions, not a billion… Will we see more of those big exits? Absolutely. But I would much prefer seeing dozens of companies achieving nine-figure valuation exits each year and catalyzing future waves of entrepreneurial success in the process.”

Joe Payne, the CEO of Code42, also thinks we’ll have a number of winning companies with billion-dollar valuations. “There’s one mind-shift change that will help Minnesota companies be successful more quickly. Because technology is portable and doesn’t need to be ‘shipped’ in order to win, you must be the best in the world in your space. That’s a mind-shift change for many in the Twin Cities. You can’t be best in Minnesota or best in the Midwest — you have to set your sights higher. You have to be the best in the world.”

No denying Payne has ambitions. “Given our fantastic customers at Code42, our market-leading products, and our world-class team, we have a very good chance to be a billion-dollar company in the next few years.”

Something More Important Than Money?

I asked Jeff Hinck how equity should be structured in order for a big exit to truly have the impact we want in our community. He had this to say: “A sizable number of people should have equity, especially early employees who take more risk joining a startup. If someone does well in a startup, they’re more likely to start one themselves, join another, or recommend to friends asking if they should join startup to go for it. That said, I think more of the reward of being part of a startup is usually the atmosphere and culture of the good ones. It’s just more fun. And what’s better than having fun and being paid more for it?”

So, remember to add that three-letter word when you’re bragging to your friends about the quality-of-life in Minnesota – and that only gets magnified when you’re part of a great startup!

The question now is, are you working in one — or on one — yet?

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