Well, it’s now early February, so I got through the whole month of January without writing my perennial New Year’s predictions post. Last year, it look me three weeks into January before I gathered up enough angles to blather about. This year, there were tons of predictions swirling around in my head around yearend that I thought were bound to come true — but those were so obvious to me that I thought spewing them out would sound stupid. or just plain boring. So, the spirit never moved me to hammer out a post.
Image created by me using ChatGPT’s DALL-E.
This year, I think I’ll just revisit my last year’s predictions and crow about how many were right — or that exceeded my expectations. I’ll also grade any that were wrong or “to be determined.” Here we go, with my words from last year’s post stated first in italics:
• AI … The hype curve has peaked. Enjoy the ride down into the trough of disillusionment. I won’t say anything more because… are there any more words to say at all that haven’t already been said about AI in 2023? A breather is needed for sure, because the hype has been getting out of control as we sit here in early 2024. (Note: I am not anti AI, I am anti *AI hype*… ) Verdict: WRONG! The hype did not let up, I’m sure you all agree.
• Startups … I predict the number of startups will pick up somewhat in 2024 (from 2023’s dismal number). Verdict: RIGHT! According to Crunchbase, the overall number of startup formations, as measured by global venture funding, did slightly increase in 2024 compared to 2023, with the majority of this growth attributed to the significant rise in investment directed towards AI-related startups.
• VC … In 2024, I will not be surprised if more VC funds shut down. Pitchbook reported in December that 38% of VCs “disappeared from dealmaking in 2023.” Verdict: RIGHT! Consider this recently from Pitchbook: “More venture firms than ever are becoming zombies. In 2023, 15,303 unique investors participated in at least one VC deal in the US. But this year, that figure has dropped to 11,425 investors, according to the Q3 2024 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor.” Ouch.
• Apple … My price target for $AAPL shares is $220 by yearend… Verdict: RIGHT! But, actually, the share price of my favorite stock exceeded that number, by a lot: it was $250 on 12/31/24! (Okay, I can’t pass up the temptation to predict a price by the end of 2025. Let’s go with $290!)
• Sports / National … Will gambling on NFL games get out of control? One senses that a crackdown must be coming. Right on cue, Minnesota legislators are trying to have sports betting legalized in our state. Verdict: RIGHT! Sports gambling TV commercials increased in frequency, as any viewer of pro sports on TV can attest — yuck!! But WRONG! – no gambling crackdown appeared that I have seen. Perhaps in some states? Here in Minnesota, thankfully, sports betting still has not been legalized.
• Sports / Local … The Vikings will do better. Which isn’t saying much. And Gopher football damn-well better improve as well! 2023 was embarrassing. One highlight in 2024: we’re finally going to the Rose Bowl! Verdict: RIGHT! On both counts. And my personal favorite of the year was getting to see that Gopher win vs. UCLA in-person at the Rose Bowl! Some awesome memories.
• Higher Ed … College enrollments will continue to drop nearly everywhere, but prices will of course not fall nearly as fast… if at all? Verdict: RIGHT! At both public and private non-profit four-year colleges, there was a 6% decline in enrollment in the fall of 2024. For 46 states, Inside Higher Ed found the average drop was almost 7%. What about costs? In 2024-25, average tuition and fees increased by 2.7% for in-state students at public four-year institutions, and by 3.9% for students at private nonprofit four-year institutions, before adjusting for inflation.
• Minnesota State Government … Complete DFL control will end — it has to! Verdict: Unfortunately, TBD. If you live here (or, if not, you may have seen national coverage), our legislature is still completely dysfunctional — not even in session at this late date! Don’t get me started on this.
• Anywhere But the City … Within the state, the escape from the central Twin Cities to the metro area suburbs and rural MN will continue… Verdict: RIGHT! The populations of Minneapolis and St. Paul both appear to have decreased in 2024 compared to 2023. Minneapolis has had an annual decline of 0.44% per year sine 2020. And St. Paul’s decline has been even more during that time, though specific 2024 data is not yet available. Meantime, census data shows the populations of the suburbs and prime out-state locations (meaning where property valuations are especially increasing) are both on the rise. The population of Crow Wing County, for example (which encompasses part of the Brainerd Lakes Region), grew by 3.69% since 2020, with an estimated growth rate of 0.61% in 2024. And, in a study entitled “The Best Places to Live in the Midwest” conducted by Consumer Affairs, Plymouth MN ranked among the top 10 best Midwest cities to live in, while its larger neighbor Minneapolis ranked in the bottom five. (Sigh, it used to be a great city.)
• The Media Business …. Let me go out on a limb 🙂 — the media industry will continue to contract in 2024. Many more jobs will be lost. Verdict: RIGHT! Nearly 15,000 jobs were eliminated in 2024 across broadcast, television, film, news, and streaming — “extending a two-year run in which the news and entertainment businesses were dealt body blows,” as reported by The Wrap.
Not a bad performance for me, with eight RIGHTS and only two WRONGS (plus one TBD). But, as far as making a long list of predictions for 2025? Well… with all that’s going on, I’ve decided that all bets are off!
Generally, however, I do remain an optimist. So, onward we go.
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