Reflections & analysis about innovation, technology, startups, investing, healthcare, and more .... with a focus on Minnesota, Land of 10,000 Lakes. Blogging continuously since 2005.

Category: Minnesota (Page 1 of 7)

From Bootstrapping a $70M Company to Leading a VC Fund: Lessons for Founders

Twin brothers Rob and Ryan Weber, founding partners of Great North Ventures, have raised two funds and invested in more than 50 startups to date and counting, throughout the Midwest and the rest of the county. Well before that success, however, they were founders themselves of their own ventures, beginning in their 20s, and they learned a lot the hard way in their life as “operators,” a label they proudly wear. From that experience, it’s no surprise they have actionable advice for entrepreneurs in today’s world of AI and fintech. I recently interviewed Rob and Ryan to hear some of the stories they willingly share as hard lessons for founders launching startups today.

We begin with a story from their early bootstrapping days with their startup, Freeze.com , which they founded in Minnesota in the late 1990s. “We raised an angel round of $320,000 in the spring of 2000, just before the dot-com bubble popped,” said Rob. “We were generating around $50k a month in free cashflow from advertising revenue from our prior dot-com publishing business, so we didn’t really feel we needed the cash from the angel round. However, we were excited to bring on a couple of those angel investors as board members to provide us mentorship and guidance.”

In the year after this angel round, Rob and Ryan hired their first dozen employees and were on the verge of launching their core optimization back-end system, which they had been incubating. “Meanwhile, our monthly cashflow began to decline very quickly,” said Rob, “as the majority of our ad revenues came from dot-com startups that had run out of funding. We were down to less than $100,000 in the bank and were losing money every month.”

That led to a particularly mentally difficult period, Rob said. “I remember one week I couldn’t force myself to walk up the stairs to our office, and the anxiety was causing a serious lack of sleep. Luckily, I got help and worked through this very difficult time.” AI illustration depicting Rob Weber dreading to go upstairs to the office

Rob and Ryan’s board – a benefit of that angel round – advised them to reduce their operating costs and conserve cash to weather the storm. “At age 21, my brother and I had to let go a third of those first employees. It was first time we’d ever had to experience a layoff. It was hard.” However, the pair managed to launch their back-end system, and pretty quickly start to generate significantly more free cashflow with the help of their remaining team.

They were definitely back on track. “By 2005, we had scaled to $30 million in annual revenue and $5 million in EBITDA,” said Rob. I asked him what were the hard lessons he and his brother took away from that very difficult early period.

“Number one, raise cash when you don’t know if you need it,” he said. “It will be easier to do and you never know what the future will bring to your business. And, two, remember your business doesn’t define who you are. Founders sometimes lose track of this because they commit so much energy to their business.”

Because Rob and Ryan have lived the founder’s journey literally from a cold start (pun intended), and now evaluate founders for a living, they have more valuable lessons they can share to help today’s founders. The ones from the early days are especially instructive, as founders who bootstrap successfully for survival often are the ones that VCs find the most promising to fund.

Profitability Isn’t Optional, and Metrics Are Critical

Moving from survival to profitability was a journey the brothers obviously conquered. “When we were just starting out, we had pretty good aggregate metrics for our web traffic, such as how much traffic we were getting each day, from which search terms, and so forth,” said Rob. “But we had no idea how the traffic was converting and contributing to our revenue generation.” Once he and Ryan launched their optimization system, they had much better granularity as to how traffic was converting. “That allowed us to run experiments and optimize for efficiency,” said Rob. “The vast majority of our competitors had no such optimization system, so our revenue and free cashflow started to soar.”

This focus on metrics remains essential for startups today, the brothers point out. “Most lack granular KPI measurement for their businesses, which causes them to make decisions based on intuition alone,” said Ryan. “And that does not scale well.”

There’s a problem with the “growth-at-all-costs” mindset of many venture-backed companies, Rob points out. “Such heavily funded companies can get by with a poorer understanding of the KPIs that drive their business. Even though they operate inefficiently, they can continue to afford to burn lots of cash.” The key takeaway here is that founders mustbuild a fundamentally sound business first, Rob maintains. “Capital should amplify a great business, not create a temporary one.”

The Unfair Advantage of Technical DNA

Both Rob and Ryan studied computer science in college. They didn’t do coding or design work themselves once they launched their startup, “but we were very active and curious about how our team was developing our core systems,” said Rob, “and very involved in product design decisions.”

Ryan added: “Our background studying math and computer science caused us to take a pragmatic, analytical approach to decision making. I also think our technical background made us more relatable across our team. We always placed a high degree of value on technical roles, whereas some companies overvalue sales, for example.”

How involved were Rob and Ryan with their team? “We were very much ‘in the trenches’ understanding how our business was growing,” said Rob. “We were able to make effective decisions quickly. What changed over time as we scaled our business was the need to build a team that was also very entrenched in the technology aspects of our business, and to empower them to make decisions.”

The key lesson here for founders, both brothers agree, is that a deep understanding of your technology, product, and market is your most defensible asset. And having a team that also gets that is mandatory.

Scaling with Scarcity Breeds Creativity

Can a lack of resources help drive a founder to seek his or her own solutions? “We didn’t have a large enough engineering team to automate everything, so we would do a lot of tasks ad hoc,” said Rob. “One example was how we scheduled email campaigns to our opt-in email list. Because that list had grown into the millions, we couldn’t schedule one big email campaign because it would crash our email server. So, instead, for about a year in the early days, I had to break up email campaigns into a series of smaller campaigns and set an alarm to remember to check on them and start up new campaigns. This created a lot of interruption in my personal life – which basically didn’t exist! Eventually, we developed better email scheduling tools, but you do what it takes to grow – and we did.”

The brothers ran their startup – by this time named W3i, and later NativeX – with an intense focus on capital efficiency and a culture of ownership. “When others on the team see how you’re willing to accept certain hardships or personal sacrifices in growing your business,” Ryan noted, “it makes them more willing to take that on themselves. Our early team very much all had this founder mindset.”

The lesson for founders is this: Constraints can actually be a good thing. They force you to build a lean, resilient, and resourceful team.

Looking Through the Investor’s Lens: The Great North Ventures Thesis

When the Weber brothers look at a pitch now, they admit they must see past the flashy growth numbers to the underlying unit economics. “In nearly every first call,” said Rob, “I ask how much capital has been invested into the business to get to where they are now. It isn’t so much how much revenue they’re generating relative to what they’ve burned, but, rather, how much have they really accomplished with the capital that’s been invested?”

With their experience, they ask themselves: Is this a real business, or just a story the entrepreneur seeks to fuel with capital? “I once invested a small angel check into a startup that raised a Seed round pre-launch. I remember the startup burned through all the Seed capital and ultimately never even launched their product. This stuck with me. There are many ‘founders’ out there that, even if they were able to successfully raise a Seed round, still would not be able to organize a team to deliver a well-crafted product that solves a real problem.”

What smart investors like the Webers look for are founders who are obsessed with their business model and their unit economics, not just the funding they seek.

“A really good example of what we call ‘Seed-strapping’,” said Rob, “is our portfolio company WithMe, which began in Chicago, whose founder proudly admits he raised the least amount of capital necessary.”

Investing in Founder-Market Fit

How does Great North Ventures evaluate founding teams today? “I’m looking for founders who have uncovered a market tailwind that is being underutilized and, as such, have created the opportunity to solve a problem in a new way that wasn’t possible before,” said Rob. “Often, this is through the unleashing of an emerging technology where incumbents are slow to adopt.”

Rob goes on: “When Ryan and I were teenagers, in the mid-to-late ‘90s, Internet usage was exploding and, although there were many people in the world experimenting with web publishing, there was a huge imbalance. That is, the opportunity created by the rapid, widespread adoption of the Internet was far greater than the number of web publishers putting up new websites.”

Ryan adds: “Ideally, the founders we look at have been tinkering with whatever technology they plan to unleash so they have mastered the skills required to properly harness it within their business.”

Essentially, the Weber brothers back founders who have a unique, almost unfair, insight into the problem they’re solving. It’s the “Why you?” question.

“Typically, I see the unique insight coming from one of two areas: technology-driven or market-driven,” said Rob. “Founders who have mastered a new technology can often deploy their skills into any number of vertical markets, which can provide them an advantage over incumbents. Think back to the late ‘90s: no one at giant Walmart was going to take on Jeff Bezos when it came to pioneering in e-commerce, despite Bezos having no retail background. Market-driven insights can be very powerful, too, especially in more complex industries where problems are super obvious outside of the industry. When founders have a more market-driven insight but lack technical skills, that’s okay. But we strongly prefer they have a cofounder or early team member who has strong technical skills to complement them.”

Net-net, the brothers look for evidence that the founders are the only people in the world who can build this specific company.

Investing in Capital Efficiency

It’s helpful to look at how the Weber brothers view a startup’s request for capital. Just a number means little – it’s the strategic plan that matters.

“I’ve often seen that, even when startups are competing in the same market, how they deploy capital is frequently more important than the total capital raised,” said Rob. “I’ll give one example from our portfolio. We have a startup in our portfolio called Inhabitr, which was also originally founded in Chicago (but now in California). It provides an AI-powered platform for B2B furniture procurement. Around the time we led their Seed round, a handful of other competitors raised much larger early funding rounds. While Inhabitr invested in its core AI capabilities and chose to partner with others in the furniture retail space, their competitors invested heavy amounts of capital into developing their own inventory and warehouses. Over time, most of Inhabitr’s competitors significantly underperformed because of this poor deployment of capital.”

The Webers’ bootstrapping background gives then a keen eye for founders who will treat every dollar of investment with the same care they’d treat their own last dollar.

Thus, they look fora clear, credible plan for how their fund’s capital becomes a force multiplier for the founders’ existing resourcefulness.

“One thing we often see,” said Ryan, “is startups burning large amounts of capital to fund their unproven go-to-market strategy. A better approach is to deploy small amounts of capital in the early going to develop expertise in one, scalable market channel. Once they’ve mastered that channel, that’s the time to plow capital into it.”

Conclusion: The Best Founders Think Like Investors

The Webers believe, whether you’re bootstrapping or raising millions, the goal is the same: build a durable, valuable company. They know the best founders are always thinking about the long-term health and defensibility of their business.

What final piece of encouragement would Rob and Ryan add? They jointly advise: “Cultivate an unwavering focus on your customers and the problem you’re solving, and let that guide you in key decisions. The investment you make into systems that allow you to understand your customers at the most granular level will likely be your most profitable investment.”

If you’re a founder building with this mindset, and you’re a fit for Great North Ventures’ investment strategy, Rob and Ryan want to hear from you.

To learn more about Rob and Ryan Weber’s background, check out my prior post here.

———-

Note: This post first appeared on the Great North Ventures website, with my byline, and here’s my bio that appeared with it:

Graeme Thickins is a startup advisor and an investor in Great North Ventures Fund I. He is also an angel investor in two subsequent Great North portfolio companies. He has written previously for and about Great North Ventures and its founders over several years.

 

MN Entrepreneurs and the Fortune 500 – A Look Back to One of My Favorite Posts

graphic showing the state map of Minnesota with the words Fortune 500 over itI’ve been writing about Minnesota startup founders for a long time. I can’t remember the first post I wrote about one — probably sometime in 2006. But I do know I’ve penned innumerable such posts over the years. One of my favorite recurring subjects was Robert Stephens, founder of The Geek Squad. I did a search recently to unearth just how many times I wrote about him. It was twelve! Yes, that many posts about just one of our state’s many successful tech founders! Why?  I guess because he was such a fascinating and quotable guy — and of course because I admired his success. Some of my posts about Robert were lengthy features, while others just mentioned his participation in certain local events. Here’s my list of all those posts.

What does Robert have to do with the Fortune 500? His firm was acquired by one: Best Buy. Which you surely know if you live here. And both firms were, of course, founded right here in Minnesota. The significance of his acquisition cannot be overstated: it became the basis of a massive services business for Best Buy, which continues to this day.

My favorite post about Robert was headlined and dated thusly:

text of the headline of Graeme's favorite post about Robert Stephens

Why does this one stand out for me? Because it isn’t just about one of my favorite founders, but also one of my favorite topics: branding. I re-discovered what a great read it was (if I do say so myself!) when I went back to it after so many years. (Warning, it’s a long one.) The full post is here.

Speaking of Fortune 500 firms here in Minnesota… some years after the above, I wrote a commissioned piece on this topic: “Minnesota Has Long Had a High Per-Capita of Fortune 500s. How’s That Working Out?” I didn’t write about Best Buy in that one, but I did quote at least one other Minnesota founder, whose firm was acquired by a Fortune 500 — for close to a billion dollars.

Recently, I was reminded that I only focused on Twin Cities-based Fortune 500s when I wrote that article. How could I have forgotten an out-state Fortune 500: Fastenal, founded and based in Winona MN to this day.. No, it isn’t a very high-tech company, but what an amazing growth story it has been over the years! The recent passing of its iconic founder and CEO, Bob Kierlin, reminded us all of that. I just posted on LinkedIn about him. Some of his very wise words were included there.

The lesson in all of this? Minnesota grows some great ones!

 

My Predictions Post for 2025: All Bets Are Off

[Disclosure: This post was in no way, shape, or form written by “A.I.” It is purely “H.I.”]

Well, it’s now early February, so I got through the whole month of January without writing my perennial New Year’s predictions post. Last year, it look me three weeks into January before I gathered up enough angles to blather about. This year, there were tons of predictions swirling around in my head around yearend that I thought were bound to come true — but those were so obvious to me that I thought spewing them out would sound stupid. or just plain boring. So, the spirit never moved me to hammer out a post.

an AI-generated image of men looking at a Predictions Market wall display

Image created by me using ChatGPT’s DALL-E.

This year, I think I’ll just revisit my last year’s predictions and crow about how many were right — or that exceeded my expectations. I’ll also grade any that were wrong or “to be determined.” Here we go, with my words from last year’s post stated first in italics:

AIThe hype curve has peaked. Enjoy the ride down into the trough of disillusionment. I won’t say anything more because… are there any more words to say at all that haven’t already been said about AI in 2023? A breather is needed for sure, because the hype has been getting out of control as we sit here in early 2024. (Note: I am not anti AI, I am anti *AI hype*… ) Verdict: WRONG! The hype did not let up, I’m sure you all agree.

StartupsI predict the number of startups will pick up somewhat in 2024 (from 2023’s dismal number). Verdict: RIGHT! According to Crunchbase, the overall number of startup formations, as measured by global venture funding, did slightly increase in 2024 compared to 2023, with the majority of this growth attributed to the significant rise in investment directed towards AI-related startups.

VCIn 2024, I will not be surprised if more VC funds shut down. Pitchbook reported in December that 38% of VCs “disappeared from dealmaking in 2023.” Verdict: RIGHT! Consider this recently from Pitchbook: “More venture firms than ever are becoming zombies. In 2023, 15,303 unique investors participated in at least one VC deal in the US. But this year, that figure has dropped to 11,425 investors, according to the Q3 2024 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor.” Ouch.

AppleMy price target for $AAPL shares is $220 by yearend… Verdict: RIGHT! But, actually, the share price of my favorite stock  exceeded that number, by a lot: it was $250 on 12/31/24! (Okay, I can’t pass up the temptation to predict a price by the end of 2025. Let’s go with $290!)

Sports / NationalWill gambling on NFL games get out of control? One senses that a crackdown must be coming. Right on cue, Minnesota legislators are trying to have sports betting legalized in our state. Verdict: RIGHT! Sports gambling TV commercials increased in frequency, as any viewer of pro sports on TV can attest — yuck!! But WRONG! – no gambling crackdown appeared that I have seen. Perhaps in some states? Here in Minnesota, thankfully, sports betting still has not been legalized.

Sports / LocalThe Vikings will do better. Which isn’t saying much. And Gopher football damn-well better improve as well! 2023 was embarrassing. One highlight in 2024: we’re finally going to the Rose Bowl! Verdict: RIGHT! On both counts. And my personal favorite of the year was getting to see that Gopher win vs. UCLA in-person at the Rose Bowl! Some awesome memories.

Higher EdCollege enrollments will continue to drop nearly everywhere, but prices will of course not fall nearly as fast… if at all? Verdict: RIGHT! At both public and private non-profit four-year colleges, there was a 6% decline in enrollment in the fall of 2024. For 46 states, Inside Higher Ed found the average drop was almost 7%. What about costs? In 2024-25, average tuition and fees increased by 2.7% for in-state students at public four-year institutions, and by 3.9% for students at private nonprofit four-year institutions, before adjusting for inflation.

Minnesota State GovernmentComplete DFL control will end — it has to! Verdict: Unfortunately, TBD. If you live here (or, if not, you may have seen national coverage), our legislature is still completely dysfunctional — not even in session at this late date! Don’t get me started on this. [Update 2/7/25: progress! So, this pick could turn into a RIGHT!]

Anywhere But the CityWithin the state, the escape from the central Twin Cities to the metro area suburbs and rural MN will continue… Verdict: RIGHT! The populations of Minneapolis and St. Paul both appear to have decreased in 2024 compared to 2023. Minneapolis has had an annual decline of 0.44% per year since 2020. And St. Paul’s decline has been even more during that time, though specific 2024 data is not yet available. Meantime, census data shows the populations of the suburbs and prime out-state locations (meaning where property valuations are especially increasing) are both on the rise. The population of Crow Wing County, for example (which encompasses part of the Brainerd Lakes Region), grew by 3.69% since 2020, with an estimated growth rate of 0.61% in 2024. And, in a study entitled “The Best Places to Live in the Midwest” conducted by Consumer Affairs, Plymouth MN ranked among the top 10 best Midwest cities to live in, while its larger neighbor Minneapolis ranked in the bottom five. (Sigh, it used to be a great city.)

The Media Business …. Let me go out on a limb 🙂 — the media industry will continue to contract in 2024. Many more jobs will be lost. Verdict: RIGHT! Nearly 15,000 jobs were eliminated in 2024 across broadcast, television, film, news, and streaming — “extending a two-year run in which the news and entertainment businesses were dealt body blows,” as reported by The Wrap.

Not a bad performance for me, with eight RIGHTS and only two WRONGS (plus one TBD). But, as far as making a long list of predictions for 2025?  I’ve decided that all bets are off! Why? Well, with an improving economy, a promising outlook for increased M&A activity, and, yes, even a better environment for early-stage startup funding, it could be a blockbuster year. So, frankly, it’s beyond my wildest imagination to make predictions right now!

Yes, I remain, as always, an unapologetic optimist!

Eight Up-and-Coming Healthcare & Medtech Startups I Hosted Recently

Among many other things I do, I serve on the Board of a wonderful organization called MinneAnalytics, a community of some 20,000 data and business professionals. The seventh edition of our Healthcare Data Science Conference took place Friday, April 19, 2024 at the Best Buy headquarters campus in suburban Minneapolis. More than 1000 attended.

In my role as Startup Showcase Organizer, I hosted yet another session of startup pitches at this conference. It was the 15th such session we’ve had over the past decade. (We do them at all our major conferences, not just the events we do focused in healthcare.) Not counting this session, we’ve now featured a total of 114 startups, which collectively have raised hundreds of millions in capital and created thousands of jobs. About 10% of them have had successful exits via acquisition so far.

Big Crowd

The startup session at the recent conference had what I think was the largest attendance of any we’ve ever done. It was standing room only throughout the two and half hours. I attribute that both to the quality of the startups, and to the amazing medtech ecosystem we have here in Minnesota.

The startup presenters and their companies were as follows. I encourage you to visit their websites to learn more the amazing work each is doing!

• Mark Summers, Dosentrx

Dosentrx web page image

 

• Tony Hyk, TheraTec

TheraTec web page image

 

• Jeremiah Scholl, AESOP Technology

AESOP web page image


• Keith Kallmes, Nested Knowledge

Nested Knowledge web page image

• Lia Butler, NeoPrediX

NeoPrediX web page image

• Laura Stoltenberg, Cryosa

Cryosa web page image


• Ping Yeh, Vocxi Health

Vocxi web page image

 

• Chris Darland, Peerbridge Health

Peerbridge web page image

 

A VC Panel Discusses Funding Issues

A panel I organized took place after the startup pitches. It packed the room even further — very little standing room was left! The topic was, “The Current Funding Environment for Healthcare and Medtech Startups.”

Panorama of the audience during the panel

I asked each panelist, What was the single best insight or comment you would cite from the discussion?

Frank Jaskulke, Medical Alley Association: “Having heard Stephanie Rich share that they may see 2500 companies in a year to invest in 3 or 4 — that really highlights the competition startups face. But it also speaks to the importance of engaging the right investors, not just any investors. A startup can waste a lot of time chasing the wrong targets.”

Stephanie Rich, Bread & Butter Ventures: “The biggest thing I was struck by was the interest in venture and healthcare by our ecosystem and attendees! The attendance and questions were amazing.” [Stephanie sat in for her colleague Mary Grove, who called in at the last minute with a cold.]

Dave Dalvey, Brightstone Venture Capital: “The tracking and market implications of ‘overhang’ or ‘dry powder’ as it’s called in the venture capital industry are important to understand. Too much or too little un-invested capital held by active venture managers, at a time when a new company is in the market for funding, has a significant impact on the pricing, terms, and general receptiveness of a fund manager to a new opportunity.”

Greg Banker, Vensana Capital: “I liked Dave’s comment about making sure to research VCs before you go out to fundraise, to ensure you’re a match for their criteria — or that you’re similar to other investments they’ve made in the past. For example, if you’re raising a seed investment and the fund you’re trying to talk with has never done anything but Series B and beyond — well, not likely a fit.”

We had some great questions after each pitch, and after the panel. Thanks again to all who participated and attended!

The next Startup Showcase will be held at the largest annual MinneAnalytics event of them all: Data Tech, to be held on June 7, 2024 at the same venue. It will draw 1200+ registrants and feature 40+ speakers, in addition to the startup pitch session.

Data Tech conference logo

If you’re able to attend, look me up!

My 2024 Predictions Post

I have this tendency to publish a post each January about what I see coming in the New Year. I’m a little late this year (being it’s already January 20th), but that’s because the general mood has been leaning negative of late — not exactly motivating for an optimist like me.

I refused to use an AI-generated image this time. I instead chose this awesome photo by Nicole Avagliano via Unsplash.

 

Then again, my post in January 2023 wasn’t real upbeat, either. But that was more of a tongue-in-cheek exercise. The previous year, my post in January 2022 wasn’t a list of predictions, but rather focused on one big positive trend I couldn’t ignore: the startup boom. (Remember those good old days?) Going back to January 2021, I went full-on optimist, though had some fun with it, as we were coming out of that God-awful pandemic year and needed some levity.

Anyway, for this post, I finally got around to fleshing out the notes I’d been making over the past couple of weeks. I tend to not blurt things out — I like to think a bit first. (Call me crazy compared to  most bloggers… haha.) This year, I went beyond tech to some other topics I just find hard to ignore these days. So here goes:

AI … The hype curve has peaked. Enjoy the ride down into the trough of disillusionment. I won’t say anything more because… are there any more words to say at all that haven’t already been said about AI in 2023? A breather is needed for sure, because the hype has been getting out of control as we sit here in early 2024. (Note: I am not anti AI, I am anti *AI hype* and anti *AI washing*, which so many startups are doing in an attempt to raise money.) A funny recent quote I saw is from Philip Elmer-Dewitt, who runs the very popular Apple 3.0 news blog: “I’ve been following the A.I. beat since Ronald Reagan’s first term, and in my experience its champions have consistently over-promised and under-delivered. Large language models and generative A.I. are real things, but so are self-driving cars and they’re still running over pedestrians.”

Startups … According to AngelList, the startup formation number was well down in 2023 —  40 percent since 2021! That’s horrible. I predict the number will pick up somewhat in 2024. However, a meaningful reversal won’t come until 2025 with a new administration.

VC … In 2024, I will not be surprised if more VC funds shut down. (A big one did last month.) And check-writing from those that have been largely sitting on their hands in 2023 may not increase much. The numbers are sobering. Pitchbook reported in December that 38% of VCs “disappeared from dealmaking in 2023.” Pitchbook also reported that VC investors injected only $170 billion into startups in 2023, a decrease of nearly 30% from the $242 billion recorded in 2022. In 2021, the number was $348 billion. Not a pleasant trend.

Apple … My price target for $AAPL shares is $220 by yearend — on the strength of the iPhone 16 in the fall (call it “the AI phone”), advancements with the next Watch, and, yes, the initial success of “spatial computing.” No Apple Car anytime soon, friends. Which is fine with me.

Sports / National … Will gambling on NFL games get out of control? One senses that a crackdown must be coming. Right on cue, Minnesota legislators are trying to have sports betting legalized in our state. I for one am getting really sick of all the gambling hype!! On another topic, with TV commercial time absolutely ballooning to fund NFL largesse, I predict sales of low-cost DVRs, like the $79 Tablo unit (to record live TV and certain streaming channels), will boom — letting consumers without high-cost cable services (like that rascally DirecTV) inexpensively record and watch just the actual game, skipping through the mind-numbing amount of commercials they now blast at us. And no subscription is required.

Sports / Local … The Vikings will do better. Which isn’t saying much. And Gopher football damn-well better improve as well! 2023 was embarrassing. One highlight in 2024: we’re finally going to the Rose Bowl! Okay, it’s only a regular season matchup October 12th against UCLA (in their home stadium), as they become part of the Big Ten (Big 18!) this year. And another glaring college football topic: I fear, as many do, that NIL is ruining the sport (sigh). It’s the main reason Nick Saban resigned as coach at Alabama, Hey, we don’t need more “professional” sports!

Higher Ed … College enrollments will continue to drop nearly everywhere, but prices will of course not fall nearly as fast… if at all? That tells you all you need to know. How bad is higher education? Americans’ confidence in these institutions has dropped from 57% in 2015 to 36% in 2023, according to a July 2023 poll by Gallup. Here’s more, from Barron’s: “College tuition rose 12% on average annually from 2010 to 2022, according to data compiled by the National Center for Education Statistics and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. After adjusting for inflation, college tuition has increased 747% since 1963.” This prediction I don’t make joyously, as two startups in my portfolio are in this space. (Luckily a small percentage.)

Minnesota State Government … Complete DFL control will end — it has to! Hope you enjoyed watching that $18 billion surplus — your money — go poof! That measly $520 rebate check to taxpayers (per couple) was an insult. But you fellow Minnesotans already knew that. More people are leaving the state than the number moving in. It’s not just the weather.

Minneapolis … The city will never be the same, I am convinced. And St. Paul, which is suffering almost as badly (worse with tax increases), shares the same fate. The population of both cities will continue to drop.

Anywhere But the City … Within the state, the escape from the central Twin Cities to the metro area suburbs and rural MN will continue, as will the rise in values for lakefront property, hobby farms, and farmland. I included some great insights into the trend toward remote work outside the cities, from a national viewpoint, in a post I published in January 2021.

And one more prediction for good measure:

The Media Business …. Let me go out on a limb 🙂 — the media industry will continue to contract in 2024. Many more jobs will be lost. Take a guess how many — then double it. One glaring reason: according to an October 2023 Gallup poll, a record-high number of Americans — 39% — say they don’t trust the media at all. That number has steadily increased since 2018.

So, on we go. (Yes, to a brighter 2025.)

———————————————

Postscript:

And in my continuing quest to counter the AI hype, I give you this:

A Technologist Spent Years Building an AI Chatbot Tutor. He Decided It Can’t Be Done.

———————————————

And Another Postscript:

I saw a  Wall Street Journal Saturday Essay recently (subscription required) entitled “Why Americans Have Lost Faith in the Value of College.” In it, they noted that the decline in undergraduate enrollment since 2011 has translated into 3 million fewer students on campus. Nearly half of parents say they would prefer not to send their children to a four-year college after high school.

Billionaires who slam higher ed also don’t do it any favors. Here’s Elon Musk on the topic in 2020:

“College is basically for fun and to prove that you can do your chores, but not for learning. I don’t consider going to college evidence of exceptional ability. In fact, ideally, you drop out. You don’t need college to learn stuff. Did Shakespeare go to college? Probably not.”

As a former English major, I can attest… 🙂

———————————————-

And Yet ANOTHER Postscript:

Re: my VC prediction, here’s additional insight into the state of the industry:

VC Funding in 2024: High-Profile Departures, Layoffs and a Glut of Investors Struggling to Generate Returns | Inc.com

Okay, that’s enough postscripts for one post. I publish insights like these to my X account as well, so please follow me there, where I post daily. Over and out!

« Older posts