Reflections & analysis about innovation, technology, startups, investing, healthcare, and more .... with a focus on Minnesota, Land of 10,000 Lakes. Blogging continuously since 2005.

Category: The Economy (Page 1 of 2)

This ‘Office Is Over’ Thing Has Been Coming for a Long Time

Marketwatch article headline

Article headline today (a recurring theme).

The media wants to make a huge deal about how going to work in an office is suddenly becoming passé — the media being mostly centered in New York City, I might add, which also happens to be the largest commercial real estate market in the U.S. But like many things the media gets wrong (or gets late), this trend has been going on for years. Especially for knowledge workers and those who work in the tech industry. They may try to pin it on “upstarts” like Airbnb and its cheeky CEO, Brian Chesky, in articles like this.

photo of Brian CheskyBut we all know this mentality, if you will, has been reality for millions of people for a decade or more.

I’ve been saying for years — ask my friends — that “my office is wherever my MacBook Pro is.” I don’t say it to be funny. It’s simply the truth.

Apple MacBook Pro M1

MacBook Pro M1 by Martin Katler via Unsplash

It’s a prime reason I’ve been an active investor in $AAPL for decades. That was even before it produced its first laptop — which, for you younger types, was called the PowerBook. It was life-altering.

That was my first Apple laptop, and I’ve owned more laptops from my favorite company than I can count since then. (Yes, I keep upgrading to the latest and best.) So, as a self-employed business

Apple Powerbook photo

Apple Powerbook, early 1990s – photo by Everyday Basics via Unsplash

owner, I’ve been doing this “office is anywhere” thing for a long, long time. Which makes me find this latest lament about the demise of the office to be quite amusing.

And who doesn’t get that this mentality/reality is hugely less costly than an office lease?

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p.s. To those of you who were smart enough to invest in $ABNB early on, my hat is off to you. Because it has certainly enabled a large part of the movement away from the traditional office, as it continues to do. And it has created no less than an industry of its own at the same time, enriching legions of property entrepreneurs.

The Startup Surge to End All Surges?

Photo by Chuttersnap via Unsplash

As big trends go, I’d label this one blockbuster. Startup formation is on fire. It jumped 24% year-over-year in 2020 here in the U.S. Consider this from the Economic Innovation Group:

“A new Census Bureau dataset allows us to track early-stage entrepreneurial activity in almost real-time. For the duration of the pandemic, the Bureau’s Business Formation Statistics series has provided a detailed look at the number and character of new business applications on a weekly basis. Its findings suggest that the pandemic delivered a massive shock to American entrepreneurship that has seriously altered established trends in new business formation. Counter to expectations, 2020 shaped up to be the best year for business applications on record.” (Emphasis mine.)

bar chart of business applications

Then there’s this analysis from Oberlo:

“In 2010, the number of new business applications came in at 2.50 million. But as new business statistics show, in 2020, 4.35 million applications were submitted. That’s a whopping 74 percent more. It is also a 24.19 percent increase from 2019 and the biggest increase of the past decade by a mile.”

[Note: This post first appeared as an article on Grit Daily.]

I’ve experienced (and survived!) at least five technology/business cycles since going entrepreneurial and founding my consultancy more than three decades ago. And each of these cycles drove a startup surge that was considerable. (One, the dot-com cycle, saw a reversal for a few years after it peaked in 2000. So, surprisingly, did the startup surge driven by the advent of the smartphone era, but that was due to the financial crash of 2008.) I benefited greatly from every single one of those surges – getting to partner with so many wide-eyed entrepreneurs who were doing some crazy, innovative things and reaped some big rewards.

But this latest explosion of startups – call it the Covid Surge, the #WorkFromAnywhere Surge, the Digital Transformation Surge – whatever name you want to hang on it, this baby stands well above the rest.

line chart of new business applications

It’s More Than Just the ‘Cool Kids’

Today, it seems everybody wants to be a startup. Or at least work for a startup. Or start planning a startup. Or marry someone who has a startup. There’s even a term for those who wish they could do a startup, or who dream about doing it someday: “wannapreneur.”

Quite simply, these people just do not lust after a traditional career anymore. Seriously, when do you remember a time you felt this sorry for big corporations? They’re so unloved. (Wiping a tear.) Who in their right mind wants to work for one company for the rest of their career – or, hell, even five years anymore?

You, Mr. or Ms. Millennial, GenZer, GenXer, or even Boomer, have other ideas about how you want to live your life. In charge of your own destiny – that’s what. With a chance to build wealth well beyond what you could as an employee for the rest of your life.

Do I get an amen?

The Great Resignation: ‘Been Nice Knowing Ya, Boss’

What I say is driving this latest startup-surge-for-the-ages is not Covid, and not #WorkFromAnywhere, per se – rather, a by-product of it. It’s called freedom. People got a taste of freedom of when they want to work, and where. And, for many, how they do that work – without being under the nose of some boss.

Surely you’ve seen multiple stories by now about how so many people are quitting their jobs rather than go back to the office. LinkedIn alone will bury you in them. (Which raises the question, why do they write so much about all this quitting when it obviously affects their model? No question they’re quite dependent on big companies and their recruiting ads, and all the ladder-climbing robots who flog their corporate accomplishments on the platform. Makes you think LinkedIn is really going to need that freelance marketplace platform we keep hearing rumors about if it wants to keep growing anywhere near like it has.)

Granted, not everyone who’s quitting their job is doing a startup. Some are taking different jobs (duh). A slew of others would describe what they’re doing as simply “going freelance.” But many if not most of those are forming a legal entity to do that – the Company of Me – which shows how serious they are. It seems fair to assume the majority of these new entities are “solopreneurs” initially. That may or may not fit your definition of a startup – but, regardless, today we’re looking at huge company formation numbers overall, those that have already happened in 2020 and the similar numbers rolling in for 2021.

If you’re into economics, more great insights come from this article, including the following:

“There is a widespread perception that small businesses create the most jobs in the United States and other advanced economies. Research suggests that it is new businesses (emphasis mine), not small ones, that create these jobs (Haltiwanger et al. 2013). Studying the patterns in startup activity is hence an indicator of future employment growth.”

A Telling Finding

Amazingly, a survey just published by Digital.com found that one-third of workers who quit their jobs within the last six months started a business. That is just an unprecedented number in my experience!

graphic of workers starting businesses

More insights from the survey:

“Sixty-two percent of respondents say they are starting a business to be their own boss, and 60% say they are passionate about pursuing a business idea… Although many respondents say the pandemic influenced their decisions, they also cite several reasons for leaving the workforce. Forty-four percent of workers quit their jobs because they want better wages and benefits, 42% want to focus on their health, and 41% desire a more rewarding career. Sixty percent of new entrepreneurs learned about launching a startup business during the pandemic lockdown.”

Many startups begin life as personal service companies. Some of those actually go on to become product companies, whether hardware, software, even manufacturing businesses. A great many upstarts during the Covid era were founded as retail or ecommerce ventures. Online shopping went ballistic during the pandemic, and so many smart entrepreneurs took advantage of that.

It’s Easier Today

Historically speaking, entrepreneurs in the U.S. today have it pretty nice.

Consider all the factors that make their plight not nearly as difficult as it used to be:
• The low cost of starting a business
• The speed of creating a business entity (at least in most states; looking at you, California)
• Accessibility to capital, with a myriad of funding sources
• The low cost of capital these days
• And so many resources to learn how to do a startup, with organizations (both for-profit and nonprofit) practically tripping over each other to help entrepreneurs. These resources encompass many low-cost and even free services – coaching, classes, mentorship, accelerator programs, competitions with cash awards, and the list goes on.

Speaking of resources for starting a business, the outfit that sponsored the above survey, Digital.com, offers a wealth of links for new entrepreneurs.

So, What Are You Waiting For?

There’s never been a better time. But then, I’m biased.

 

Nice Followup to My Post About Predictions for the New Year…

I wrote a post a couple weeks ago called “Ten Predictions for Optimists in 2021.” Not to get too serious about it, because I wrote the post to bring some, shall we say, lightheartedness, to the current state of affairs. But I couldn’t help but take some pride in my prediction abilities when, early this Saturday morning, I read a very informative Barron’s Roundtable discussion by some really smart people. It was entitled in part, “Welcome to the Roaring ’20s” (subscription required, though I was able to access the whole piece in my Apple News app).

Barron's Roundtable graphic

One of the participants in this roundtable of market watchers and investment gurus was a guy named Henry Ellenbogen, Chief Investment Officer at Durable Capital Partners. He’s in the center, bottom row, above. (One of his firm’s claims to fame is that it was an early investor in DoorDash, which IPOed in late 2020 and is up substantially. And they just invested in another big round for the Brit counterpart, Deliveroo.) Here are some of Henry’s insights from the roundtable:

One of the most fundamental trends that will come out of 2020 is that America will spread out. The first suburbanization trend started in 1810. I would argue that we are now in the fifth phase, and it is going to be as powerful, if not more so, than the first four. Knowledge workers are going to be able to separate economic opportunity from where they live. A lot of tech companies now talk about being time-zone companies as opposed to geographically based. Working from home, even for people who have to go to the office two or three days a week, will allow people to move to the suburbs and more distant places, lowering their cost of living and enhancing their quality of life. The services that accompany these workers are also going to spread out. The productivity gains will be significant. Before Covid, 10% of Americans spent two hours a day commuting to work, and 40% spent an hour. You’re going to return this time to people in the form of enhance productivity.

But what about tech companies lowering compensation levels for people who move from high population centers? Will that cause some people to rethink such moves?

If people can really work remotely, competition in the marketplace will take care of compensation discrepancies. If you want to have the best employees and they can live where they want, you are going to have to pay them based on a national wage.

What do you expect from the economy in 2021? (a question from Lauren Rublin, Barron’s Senior Managing Editor)

There is an underlying assumption that we get decoupled from Covid by the vaccines. If that happens, there is going to be a tremendous pent-up desire for experiences and consumption. Starting this summer, we might have six months of New Year’s Eve parties.

There you go, my optimist friends. Start getting the champagne ready!

 

Ten Predictions for Optimists in 2021

1) Covid will end; mass bonfire celebrations of people burning masks will break out everywhere. (Backyard fireplace sales will quintuple by year end.)

Bonfire and Airstream Trailer

Photo Credit: Airstream2Go

2) Coffee shops will become so busy you’ll have to take a number and stand in line to get in. (But think of the fun conversations you’ll have in line! And people will actually be able to understand you, because you won’t have a mask on.)

3) Getting “Zoomed” will come to mean when a stock craters – and I would so enjoy watching one in particular do that. (But there are so many other good stocks to buy, or just hold. Did somebody mention Apple?)

4) People will still be able to work from anywhere – but, you guessed it, the office won’t even be near the top of that list, to put it mildly. (Work-from-anywhere is a gift from God. #ForeverWFX!)

5) “Going downtown” will still suck, wherever you are. (But geography don’t lie: there’s still 97% of the USA that is not a city.)

6) You will never hear someone brag, “Hey, I get to go to New York City” or “I can’t wait to ride that subway.” (Sorry, not much to be positive about for NYC.)

7) Road trips will remain popular, RV prices will stay crazy high, and those stocks will be top performers. (Side note from my past experience: you’ll never be sorry if you buy an Airstream.)

8) Consumer air travel will come back faster than business travel – because, duh, people have been going crazy. (Book away!)

9) California will tax you for even thinking about traveling there. They’re already getting ready to tax out-of-state college students – no lie. (But no truth yet to the rumor they’ll charge you money at the border to drive your RV in.)

10) Austin TX will become its own state when more people and companies move there than the entire rest of the state’s population. The people running SXSW will be so ecstatic, their heads will explode and hotel accommodations for their next event will be booked all the way to Oklahoma. (Maybe just look for a parking place for your RV?)

Good luck, people. Keep smiling and thinking positively!

A Look at How Boredom Became Such a Thing

How’s your #VirusFreakout shutdown been going? I sure was bored. Not the whole time, but a good part of it. Waiting for clients to get going with writing projects and communications strategy engagements was the maddening thing that contributed mostly to my boredom — day after mind-numbingly slow day. So I decided to sit down and write about… what else? Boredom.

girl looking bored

Photo by Tatiana via Pexels

And I surprised myself. I discovered a fascinating topic! It turned out to be a wonderful way to relieve my own boredom. I learned there’s been much written about this topic in recent years — and especially in recent months. Yes, I was not the only writer to trip onto this topic to help pass the time of day.

In fact, I even discovered that boredom has been written about in the world of finance — stock trading, to be specific:

If You’re Bored, You Can Trade Stocks
I didn’t do that, mind you — and won’t. (I’m a buy-and-hold guy.) But here’s a key excerpt from the writer of this great financial newsletter: “The weird thing about the coronavirus crisis is that it simultaneously (1) caused a stock market crash and (2) eliminated most forms of fun. If you like eating at restaurants or bowling or going to movies or going out dancing, now you can’t. If you like watching sports, there are no sports. If you like casinos, they are closed. You’re pretty much stuck inside with your phone. You can trade stocks for free on your phone. That might be fun? It isn’t that fun, compared to either (1) what you’d normally do for fun or (2) trading stocks not in the middle of a recessionary crisis, but those are not the available competition. The available competition is ‘Animal Crossing’ and ‘Tiger King’.”

The author wrote about this phenomenon previously: “We talked last month about what I guess I will call the Boredom Markets Hypothesis, the idea that an important driving force in modern stock markets is the demand of retail investors for entertainment. The basic theory is that ordinary people will do more trading (1) if trading is entertaining and (2) if other things are less entertaining: The more bored they are, the more they will trade stocks.”

He goes on to cite a Bloomberg piece that supported his hypothesis: “Forget buy-and hold. Stuck at home and dreaming of a killing, bored retail traders are branching out into all manner of Wall Street exotica. Darting in and out of stock options, dabbling in complicated exchange-traded funds, devouring trading how-to books by the dozen — all have become tools in the self-directed portfolio playbook. Locked down and socially distant with lots of time and (apparently) money to spare, they’re leveraging zero-percent brokerage fees in new and surprising ways.”

And he adds this interesting little insight: “The number of investors at Robinhood currently holding the U.S. Oil Fund (USO), the biggest exchange-traded fund invested in oil, stands at 171,000, 20 times the number of users that held the fund in early March, according to website Robintrack, which uses Robinhood’s data to show trends in positioning but isn’t affiliated with it. The popularity of the fund only increased after negative oil prices captivated and confused traders…. Ordinarily, one thinks of retail traders as momentum followers who sell stocks when they go down. But when investments go down in an entertaining way—USO plunged in March, and has had troubles ever since, because it owns oil futures that can now go below zero—traders flock to it because, you know, at least they can feel something. ‘Ooh, a stock that can go below zero,’ they almost say, ‘that’s new, sounds fun, I want that’.”

I found that whole discussion extremely entertaining — in my own little boredom world. And I’m now hooked on this guy’s newsletter.

But I discovered so much more.

Bored games – Every day suddenly feels the same. That doesn’t have to be a problem.
We’re told by this writer to just let boredom happen… “even for just a short time, (it) allows us to think about what it is telling us. Maybe right now we can’t pursue all the things we normally find meaningful, but spending the time deliberately thinking about what matters most is never a bad thing. Then we can choose to act. The scope of what we do — learning a new language or just baking a cake — matters less than the fact that we are the ones doing the choosing.” Yes, you are the master of your boredom fate. So choose your cure carefully and happily, I guess.

Is It Burnout or Boredom? The Answer Matters.
Assuming it’s the latter, the author has this recommendation for entrepreneurs: “Marry your mission all over again. Over time, entrepreneurs occasionally lose sight of the reason they started their companies. If you’re having trouble connecting to your mission, you may need to revise it or at least get to know it again. See whether your original mission still matters to you, and rework it if it doesn’t. That way, you’ll feel more in tune with your company’s output, which should help energize your work. Re-examine your initial business plans, and revisit the places or memories that inspired you to open shop. Returning to your original passion will help you gain perspective on why it might not be a good fit any longer or how you lost your connection to it. Journaling and speaking with trusted mentors are two activities that can give you a sense of perspective, enabling you to rediscover your spark.” Imagine that — actually talking to people you trust can be a cure for boredom. Yeah, okay. Brilliant.

The Surprising Benefits of Being Bored
Many of us shy away from boredom, but it’s actually very good for creativity, according to one expert: Sandi Mann, a senior psychology lecturer at the University of Central Lancashire in the UK. “We lead incredibly busy lives, constantly hopping from one task to the next, and when we’re blessed with a little bit of downtime, we pick up our phones, and scroll the boredom away. But is that the best way use of our time?” Mann says boredom is an essential part of the creative process and should be applied to our day-to-day lives. She thinks we should try not to fear boredom when it hits us. “We should embrace it,” she says – a philosophy that she has now taken into her own life. “Instead of saying I’m bored when I’m stuck in traffic, I’ll put music on and allow my mind to wander – knowing that it’s good for me. And I let my kids be bored too – because it’s good for their creativity.” Of course, her whole professional career is about studying boredom, so of course she would train her kids.

Being Bored Can Be Good for You — If You Do It Right. Here’s How.
This one gets down to some prescriptives for all you millions of Covid shutdown folks out there. Here’s a long excerpt:

“If you’re waiting for brilliance to strike, try getting bored first. That’s the takeaway of a study published recently in the journal Academy of Management Discoveries [there’s a journal for that?], which found that boredom can spark individual productivity and creativity.” The article again cites Sandi Mann, who’s also authored a book entitled “The Upside of Downtime: Why Boredom Is Good,” and a proponent of embracing that emotion, negative connotations and all. Here are some ways she says being bored can be a good thing for your mind, imagination, and productivity, and how to do it right (these are article excerpts):
• As demonstrated by the new study and plenty others before it, boredom can enable creativity and problem-solving by allowing the mind to wander and daydream. “There’s no other way of getting that stimulation, so you have to go into your head,” Mann says. You may be surprised by what you come up with when you do (says the article).
• Step away from screens, work, and other stressors long enough to feel bored. Studies have shown, for example, that modern tools including work emails, social media, and dating apps can strain mental health — so taking a break can be a valuable opportunity to recharge.
• Mann says it’s important not to conflate boredom with relaxation. A purposefully tranquil activity, such as yoga or meditation, likely doesn’t meet the definition of trying and failing to find stimulation. To tap into true boredom, she suggests picking an activity that requires little or no concentration — like walking a familiar route, swimming laps, or even just sitting with your eyes closed — and simply letting your mind wander, without music or stimulation to guide it. [My emphasis there.] Mann says our cultural attachment to our phones is paradoxically both destroying our ability to be bored, and preventing us from ever being truly entertained. [Yikes, that’s a heavy insight!] “We’re trying to swipe and scroll the boredom away, but in doing that, we’re actually making ourselves more prone to boredom, because every time we get our phone out we’re not allowing our mind to wander and to solve our own boredom problems.”

Got that, phone phreaks?

The article has a great conclusion: “Next time you find yourself in line at the grocery store, in a tedious meeting, or killing time in a waiting room, resist the urge to scroll. You’re bound to get bored — and your brain, mood, and work performance just might improve.”

So, it’s all good — boredom is the best thing that could possibly come out of a total shutdown of our economy.

Yeah, right! But I’ve had enough of it for a while, thank you very much. And so have a lot of other people, as you can see from Google Trends:

Google Trends graph on search term "Boredom"

Now I’m totally ready for the Big Open that’s coming our way!

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P.S. By the way, to cure my boredom over the past couple of months, one thing I did was play carpenter. I replaced a large part of my deck and built a deck gate – from scratch! – the photos of which you see here. I dutifully posted these to my Instagram page (which I only go to when I’m really bored). What did you do?

two photos showing the work Graeme did on his deck during the coronavirus shutdown

 

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