Graeme Thickins on Tech

Reflections & analysis about innovation, technology, startups, investing, healthcare, and more .... with a focus on Minnesota, Land of 10,000 Lakes. Blogging continuously since 2005.

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Predictions for Macworld

January 6, 2007 / / 0 Comments

Okay, while I’m on the plane to CES, I thought I’d write about — what else? — the next big show after this one… 🙂 It’s actually an even more significant event — in news terms, anyway. I’m of course talking about Macworld. Wish I could travel to that one, too, but I just can’t afford to be away that long from work and other matters back home. Stevejobs Nonetheless, I’m sure anxiously following all the talk about what will be announced later next week in SF by his royal supremeness, Chairman Steve. And I’m sure I’ll be spending some time in the next few days in Vegas talking with people about what they think is coming.

But my favorite prediction so far is from my longtime colleague, designer Randy Geise, who heads GeiseDesign in the Twin Cities. He’s a huge Apple follower and a fanatically loyal Mac enthusiast, and I’ve found he gets these predictions right more often than not. Here’s his take on what’s we can expect this time:

“Ok, I’m going to go out on a limb about MacWorld…

“I don’t think the iPhone will be ready and I think Jobs would more than likely do a special event for that like he did for iPod and other major hardware introductions. In addition to a whole lot of things, including software and the iTV, I’m betting he has finalized the exclusive agreement with The Beatles, and his ‘one more thing’ will be a limited edition Beatles iPod (ordered blank or pre-filled with all The Beatles’ songs, including some we haven’t heard). Like the ‘red’ iPods, where a certain amount goes to charity, this iPod will be tied into breast cancer charities (since Linda died from that). I don’t think McCartney will make a live appearance but will do a transatlantic iChat with Jobs. This will also tie into the iTV, as all the Beatles’ movies will be available on iTunes and ready to be streamed to your HDtv via iTV.”

What Randy thinks would be “the perfect MacWorld keynote” this time is the following sequence of events:
1) Numbers/performance review.
2) Updated iLife with each app getting something, especially more podcasting features.
3) Updated iWork with spreadsheet and database added (replaces Appleworks).
4) Leopard review/preview/date.
5) iTV intro, shipping now or shortly.
6) Announcement of the exclusive Beatles deal including a Beatles iPod, bare or loaded with every Beatles song ever recorded. Jobs gets McCartney on iChat for an interview.
7) He gets up, announces “one more thing,” pulls out an iPhone, continues his live video chat with Paul, where he announces that, in addition to songs, all The Beatles’ movies are now available for download and streaming over iTV.
8) He demos the phone features and announce pricing and availability.

Says Randy: “I don’t really think The Beatles thing is that far-fetched. From what I’ve read, the whole British copyright law has changed and shortened the lifespan — so, in order to monetize their portfolio, The Beatles have to get their stuff out in wide circulation before it hits the public domain. And there have been rumors, for quite some time, that Jobs has a deal.”

Hope you’re right, Randy — hey, I’m ready for some iBeatles! We’ll know in less than a week….

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Why I’m Going to CES

January 6, 2007 / / 1 Comment

Unless you just returned from a desert island somewhere, perhaps you’ve heard there’s a big trade show coming up in Las Vegas? Though I was a frequent attendee of what many consider its predecessor event, Comdex, I’ve largely ignored CES — never attended it. The most I ever even paid attention to it was in January 2000, when I was part of the team that conceived and planned the brand-new Best Buy web site, which our fearless leader of the then-subsidiary, BestBuy.com (John Walden), presented in prototype form to analysts and press. I did watch a live webcast of that from BBY headquarters in Eden Prairie, MN, which was a very big deal for us.

A few weeks ago, however, I thought maybe it would be interesting to at least experience all the hoopla — so I could say I’ve seen it at least once. But, since then, I’ve really been on the fence trying to decide if I should go. Well, I am hopping on a plane today. Here’s why:

Not because I like Las Vegas or gambling. (I really, really don’t.) Not because I pretend to cover consumer electronics very well (it’s not a major focus of my blog). Not because I like gadgets. (Well, it’s not really about liking — it’s much more about not having the time or money to invest in all that stuff.) And certainly not because I like TV — in fact, I mostly hate it. So, it’s also not because I like home theater, or large-screen HDTVs, or set top boxes, or even high-end audio, either. And, I’m certainly not going because I like gaming.

Now, CES does hype itself this year by saying it’s where “content meets technology,” or something like that. Hey, content I like! But what they mean is largely digital content that plays on TVs, gaming consoles, and all those gadgets that I don’t get to play with all day long like Walt Mossberg does. But, okay, I do like cell phones and wireless and certain online or wireless consumer services categories, I guess, which are also covered somewhat at CES.

But, after all the considerations and the wondering if I really should take the time out, why I’m going to Las Vegas for a few days is simply this: “BlogHaus.” It’s an event/happening that Robert Scoble has been telling us about for the last month. (See more about it here on the PodTech site.) Bloghaus At last count, some 150 of us bloggers will be converging there to hang out in an upper-floor suite at the Bellagio, on Seagate’s dime. It’s a 24 x7 press room-slash-hangout-slash-party for bloggers of every stripe! Hey, who needs the show floor and all the sore feet that go along with it! Someone recently called this event “probably the best, and longest, blogger meetup ever”! I’m really looking forward to it, to seeing old friends and meeting new ones, and will certainly do some live blogging from there.

If you’ll be there, too, and would like to hook up, email me at graeme (at) thickins (dot) com. And if you can’t be, but have any questions or suggestions for me, let me know that, too — by email, or in a comment. Vegas, here I come!

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Web Keeps Changing Newspaper Biz

December 27, 2006 / / 1 Comment

If you needed more confirmation the newspaper industry is undergoing fundamental change, you got it today. First, the surprising news about the Minneapolis Star-Tribune getting unloaded by a company that the WSJ.com says had been considered until now "a big newspaper believer."  Reason?  Apparently, they’re bigger believers in something else. The headline on the WSJ article tells it all: McClatchy’s Minneapolis Sale Aids Web Efforts. [This story may be behind a paywall if you aren’t a subscriber, or aren’t taking advantage right now of their free 1-month trial.]  Sure, McClatchy claims they did it for a tax benefit, and says the Strib has been profitable.  But drill a little further: print circulation has definitely been declining there.  And one wonders if their online businesses are picking up enough slack yet. I think we can assume no.  [Ed.: I’m curious what you think of their latest web efforts: Buzz.MN and Vita.MN.]

Yet all is not bad everywhere in newspaperland. On the positive side of the coin, this statement from the Wall Street Journal’s publisher earlier in the month shows that at least one property is livin’ high:

We hope to build on our recent increases in the number of individuals subscribing to the Journal, which grew more than 10% in the most recent circulation period — the fastest rate since 1980 — at a time when most newspapers and magazines experienced declines.

This quote comes from a piece explaining all the changes coming to the Wall Street Journal and its market-leading online site, WSJ.com, starting January 2.

Also, if you think newspaper readership is declining across the board, think again. Here’s one audience advertisers are hardly ignoring: Newspapers Are the Preferred Medium for Affluent Empty Nesters.

But for some great insight into the world of online journalism, and how it’s impacting the print side of the newspaper business, check out this interview Mark Glaser just did with the managing editor of the WSJ.com on his PBS.org blog, MediaShift: WSJ Gets Comfortable with Blogs, Wants to Boost Community.

Guy Kawasaki Is Comin’ to Town

December 21, 2006 / / 3 Comments

Was I surprised yesterday morning to learn that Guy Kawasaki, master evangelist/author/speaker from Silicon Valley, would be speaking at the U on January 19!  After grabbing tickets for myself and a guest, I immediately emailed Guy and asked him how we could be so lucky to entice him here to Minnesota smack in the middle of winter. [I email with Guy once in a while, and we have a mutual friend in Rich Karlgaard of Forbes. See my coverage of Rich’s latest MN speech.]

Guykuofm

Well, guess what what brings Guy here? [Other than a chance to talk "The Art of the Start."] It’s about pond hockey!  Which has quietly become a really big deal, and Minneapolis is ground zero for this newly revived and now organized sport. I should have known hockey had something to do with this, because I knew Guy was huge into playing the game.  Not that he doesn’t like coming to our state on general principles, mind you. I was instrumental in recruiting him to speak at a MN High Tech Association event several years ago, and I remember hearing him speak here in the mid-’90s when he was still an Apple Fellow. Guy, as you’ll recall, was the original evangelist for the Mac starting in the mid-’80s, which he wrote about in his first two books, "The Macintosh Way" and "Selling the Dream."

So, I asked Guy in my email  if I could do a little interview to use in my blog post.  He was game, so here ya go…

Me:  Guy, what did we do to deserve this?
Guy:  I’m playing in the pond hockey tournament. That was the enticement. 🙂

Me:  What’s the gist of the talk?
Guy:  I’ll be talking about "The Art of the Start" — based on my book, of course. It’s my guide for anyone starting anything.

Me:  How long will it be, and what’s the format?
Guy: Sixty minutes, top ten format with a bonus. [If you read Guy’s books or blogs, you know he loves lists of ten.]

Me:  Will you bad-mouth VCs (we hope)?  <ha, ha>
Guy:  I always tell the truth.

Me:  Will you talk story about Steve Jobs and Apple?
Guy:  Yes, a great deal.

Me:  How much will you talk about hockey? Hey, how can you NOT here?
Guy:  Depends on how we’re doing in the tournament. I think I play in a game before I speak.

Me:  Will you have books for sale?  And will you sign my entire collection ?  🙂
Guy:  I should arrange for a bookstore to be there. I’ll try to make this happen. See you soon!

What a guy!  If you haven’t yet registered, act fast — word is spreading. Complimentary tickets for Guy Kawasaki’s talk on January 19th at the U of M are available by RSVPing at www.TheGuestRegister.com/start. You can register yourself and guests at the same time. Or call 888-889-7787, Event #932.  Mucho thanks for this event go to the sponsors: the U of M’s Venture Center, the Center for Entrepreneurial Studies at the Carlson School, the James J. Hill Library, SDWA Ventures, and PR firm Haberman & Associates. I see Haberman is a co-producer of the U.S. Pond Hockey Championships here in January. Way to go, guys!

[By the way, Guy’s latest blog post is an interview of my friend Marti Nyman at Best Buy.]

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