Graeme Thickins on Tech

Reflections & analysis about innovation, technology, startups, investing, healthcare, and more .... with a focus on Minnesota, Land of 10,000 Lakes. Blogging continuously since 2005.

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High Anticipation at Macworld

The hotel is stirring early this morning. I thought I’d sleep in till maybe 5:30 or so (still kinda being on MN time and all), but no way — doors were slamming in the hallway early. [And then I found out this damn hotel doesn’t even put coffee out in the lobby till 7:00 am? Geez…] Anyway, the line for the Steve Jobs keynote must be hugely long already, two blocks down 4th Street. I’m convinced people were in it all night.Macworldkeynotesign

I don’t care — I’ll follow it on the blogs.  If all those bloggers really want to invest that much effort, work that hard, to type faster than the next guy, who am I not to relax and take advantage of it?  I did it last year while sitting comfortably in the CES Bloghaus — I’ll do the same this year.Stevejobsiflubbed

Which blogs are the best bet?  Well, Paul Kedrosky suggests these major names, but there are many. For the past several years, Apple has not provided a live video stream (rather, a tape-delayed broadcast hours later), but Kedrosky says they really have an obligation to, since it’s such a market-moving event.  And he’s right — an analyst on CNBC this morning even said GOOG and EMC will get a boost today from Macworld, with announcements related to the event. So, it’s more than just AAPL here, which is likely to get a 4-5% pop itself, I just heard.  Here’s what I said in comment on Kedrosky’s blog:

yeah – Walt Mossberg et al get unfair advantage to trade stocks 🙂

the competition to get into the keynote is unreal – soo restrictive – I talked to a guy in the press registration line yesterday who’s been to 12 Macworlds, and even he can’t get in this time

when I asked the lady behind the desk about a live stream, she said, "Well, I can’t say" – so there may be hope

We’ll see if that live stream happens. You might want to watch the Macworld Expo site.

Biggest Macworld Ever, But More Sedate?

The lines were blocks long around Moscone West early this morning, and that was just people wanting to get their badges.  The real stuff doesn’t even start till tomorrow morning — the Steve Jobs keynote and the opening of the exhibitor floors. Somethingintheair

From the Starbucks a block away, and now from the media lounge, the best stuff I’ve seen online so far:
• Troy Wolverton’s piece in the Merc News comparing to last year’s event, Macworld: Always cool, but calmer?

• A UK site that reported Job’s keynote speech outline has been spied on the web, which was repeated by another site here: Steve Jobs Macworld 2008 Keynote Speech Leaked on Wikipedia. True?  Who knows. (Any Apple employee discovered leaking anything gets summarily fired and forfeits every penny of their financial benefits, based on the contract they sign when they accept employment.)
• Macapper ran this Pre-Show Link Orgy post.
• Mainstream blog Techcrunch reported earlier today about Google Beefing Up the iPhone Interface.
• And I discovered I only need to carry my iPhone to navigate the Macworld showfloor, thanks to this little iPhone app. Great, cuz this laptop bag is already getting heavy….

More soon.

DEMO ’08 Is Coming – And I’m Pumped

Fellow innovation junkies, your day is fast approaching: it’s almost DEMO time again, and I can’t wait!  You’ve heard me say before that this is simply the best tech conference there is, which is why I cover every single one of them. Demo08reignite
The anticipation for this event is like no other, not to speak of the surprises — with up to 70 new companies or products launching at each of the twice yearly conferences. This is where you see the new stuff. How does 2,380 company launches over 17 years of experience sound?  It’s an amazing record. Through it all, as the DEMO folks say, their focus "remains on one thing: the future." Read more on the DEMO About page.

Jwmarriott1So, yes, January 28-30, I’ll be in Palm Desert, CA, attending the DEMO ’08 conference as a member of the press corps again. And, as part of this prestigious group, I’ve been given the opportunity to offer Tech~Surf~Blog readers a special discount to attend.
You can get more than $600 off if you register through this special, whiz-bang link. Demo07poolsceneClick here for more DEMO information and conference details, and here’s a great FAQ page, too. (Just be aware that this discount cannot be combined with other offers or promotions, or applied to registrations that have already been processed.) 
I really hope you can make it, because I love to meet my readers in person!  And I know you will find it a valuable experience.Jwmarriott2_2

The thing about DEMO is that it’s so much fun, too. Here are some of the events. There’s nothing that beats partyin’ with your fellow innovation junkies (between blog posts, of course).

And the venue?  Oh, baby, this place is awesome: the JW Marriott Desert Springs Resort, as you can see from a few pix I’ve included here. Click here as well for more about the hotel and travel details.

Here’s how the DEMO folks recently talked about their record over the years in picking winners. They do have an uncanny ability to uncover new trends:

"DEMO was there when the seeds of Web 2.0 were planted… exploring some
of the first Web services before we even had buzz words to describe
them. We have stayed true to our mission: to find great innovation
wherever it occurs, identify market trends through the lens of the
products coming to market, and expose you to new ideas and
opportunities.

"DEMO does not follow trends – we invent them.
Never has this been more apparent when the NBC Today Show segment on
January 1st featured Top Tech Trends for 2008 and highlighted two DEMO
Alumni who launched at previous DEMO events – Ugobe and Dash. It was
great to see companies making an impact on the market with technologies
identified by DEMO two years earlier."

Want to read some more good stuff about their predictions and trends for 2008?  The DEMOblog is a great resource, written by the show’s executive producer, Chris Shipley, and edited by Keith Shaw. It’s one of the best kept secrets out there in blog-land, and is actually an online version of the venerable DEMOletter.

So, net-net — you really want to know what’s coming?  Attend DEMO — simple as that.  See you there if you can make it!  And watch for my next post on the event, which will include a listing and links to all the presenting companies, just as soon as they’re announced to us press folk (the weekend before).

New Face of Venture Investing: the ‘Small’ Guys

The world of venture investing has changed….in case you haven’t noticed. Yes indeed, "small" is very much in — as in smaller investments — especially for startups having anything to do with the Internet. [And that would include most everything to do with IT and software today, not to speak of consumer services.]  The reason is simply that startups don’t require as much capital in this age of…whatever you want to call it: "Web 2.0" or "the Internet as platform."

A great article in Saturday’s Wall Street Journal drove that point home again: VC’s New Math: Does Less = More?  The main subject of the article was Peter Thiel, the former CEO of PayPal, who now runs a small VC firm that’s become the talk of the Valley.  It invests "sometimes just a few hundred thousand dollars" in its deals, says the article, which also quotes him as saying that the venture-capital world "definitely needs to be shaken up." Thiel and his fellow founders and execs from his PayPal days have built quite a record of investing, including an early stake in Facebook. Last year, the NY Times also published an excellent article about Thiel and his "mafia": It Pays to Have Pals in Silicon Valley.

Newfaceofvc_2

But Peter Thiel and his gang are hardly the only ones leveraging this new model. I present here six more that have it figured out pretty well, too, with most already reaping rewards, as firms they have backed have either been acquired or achieved big paper valuations. [There are surely other "new VCs" I could feature here, but these six are the ones I know best, from reading and commenting on their blogs, hearing them speak at conferences, or actually meeting some of them in person.] Note that most of these guys began by investing their own money as angels, which they gained from successful careers as tech entrepreneurs or traditional VCs, but all those that did start that way have morphed into the new breed VC, because they’re now investing other people’s money as well. That is, they’ve raised traditional VC funds, but tend to focus those funds on smaller, Internet/Web 2.0 type investments. (Thiel’s new career even goes beyond this, however, as he also manages a hedge fund, as noted in the Journal article.)

Breeding Winners
Who are the others pictured above? Josh Kopelman of First Round Capital is based in the most unlikely of places, suburban Philadelphia, but calls himself the "Redeye VC" (which is the name of his blog) because he’s flying to the Valley so often. His entrepreneurial background includes Half.com, which was acquired by Ebay. Josh was the subject of a feature just published by Fortune on people to keep an eye on in 2008, as the traditional media continues to discover these guys we know, because it’s realizing how much wealth they’re helping create behind the scenes. Josh’s portfolio will impress you.

Fred Wilson is the reigning godfather of Web 2.0 investors from his perch in NYC at Union Square Ventures. And that’s largely on the strength of his blogging — he blogs on his firm’s site, and at his personal blog, AVC. Check out his firm’s portfolio of Internet investments. Fred is hands-down the most prolific of the VC bloggers (with more readers than only Guy Kawasaki). I actually don’t know how he has time for much else with all the blogging and Twittering he does. (He’s an investor in Twitter.) But then, he’ll tell you he actually learns about many of his deals through his blogging. He considers it an unfair advantage, and has caused many other VCs to catch on to the benefits of writing in the blogosphere. For more on Fred, who’s actually a pretty private and low-profile guy (for example, he doesn’t show up at too many conferences), see this profile that appeared on a Wired blog earlier this year. 

Jeff Clavier is one of only two of this group based in the Valley — Palo Alto in this case. [Note that two of the others are in SF, but three are elsewhere.] Jeff has an extremely interesting and eclectic background, starting in France, where he did an IT startup, acquired by Reuters, where he later served as a corporate VC. There, he managed early investments in such firms as Yahoo! and Verisign. He later migrated to the Valley and become one of the early investors in Web 2.0. His blog, Software Only, was an early and influential voice in this new world of venture capital. Just a few months ago, Jeff announced on his blog his new $12 million seed fund.

Brad Feld is based in Boulder, CO, and is one of five partners in The Foundry Group. He’s a prolific blogger, at both Feld Thoughts and Ask the VC. The latter is one of the best resources I know of for enterpreneurs seeking advice online. Brad is an amazing, high energy guy. A marathoner and an inveterate entrepreneur with a masters from MIT, he’s lived the entrepreneur’s life as founder of a
software firm that was acquired by AmeriData Technologies (later acquired by GE Capital), where he served as CTO. Brad was a driving force behind the launch this past summer of the TechStars competition in Boulder, and his firm has already funded some of the winners.

Dave Hornik is a very well known member of this new breed of VC, for two reasons — he was an early player, and he’s based in the Valley. His firm, from its cool digs on Sand Hill Road in Menlo Park, invests in more than just Internet services, however. Some of the names you would know in its Internet portfolio are Six Apart, Technorati, Evite (acquired), Shopping.com/Epinions (acquired), Postini (acquired), and Tumbleweed. Dave’s VentureBlog was one of the earliest VC blogs, which certainly contributed to his popularity, though he’s posting much less frequently there of late.

Aydin Senkut, by contrast, is probably the newest and least known of the group. An early Google manager, he left in 2005 and now runs Felicis Ventures in SF. You say you’ve never heard of it?  Well, check out his portfolio. He was one of the subjects of a NY Times article a few days ago entitled A Post-Google Fraternity of Investors. While the ex-Googlers now investing in startups (most as angels, some as VCs) are not as tight-knit a group as the ex-PayPal founders and execs, there are potentially many more of them.

What do you think of this new breed of venture investor?  Are they really changing the game, or are they simply more of the same-old Vulture Capitalists, just dressed in tee-shirts and jeans?  🙂  And, how early do you think entrepreneurs with new ideas should approach these guys?  Will you?

UPDATE (1/7/08): For more on this trend in venture capital, no one says it better than Chris Shipley, Executive Producer of the DEMO Conferences. Check this out, from a series of recent DEMOblog posts on 2008 predictions: Venture Capital Feels a Pinch[And, by the way, look for me at DEMO ’08 in Palm Desert, CA, January 28-30.]

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