Graeme Thickins on Tech

Reflections & analysis about innovation, technology, startups, investing, healthcare, and more .... with a focus on Minnesota, Land of 10,000 Lakes. Blogging continuously since 2005.

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Stylin’ Times for ‘Tech’ and ‘Venture’

Things may seem dull here in the dog days of summer as August fizzles away, but it’s only temporary. Signs are solid for the technology industry and the venture investment sector going forward. First, check out this post by Keith Benjamin, saying he thinks the current credit crunch will actually help the venture industry. And he reiterates his positive feelings in an op-ed piece on VentureBeat, saying technology stocks are “swinging back into favor.”

VMware’s IPO, which priced August 13, has become the latest symbol. It’s even been called “the Google of Virtualization,” as this piece from CNBC states. VMW offered its shares at $29, and they proceeded to rocket to $50 on the first day of trading — thus becoming the most successful IPO since Google. The shares are now trading around $70. For more detail on the VWware story, see this overview on Renaissance Capital’s IPOHome.com. Vmwarechart

Now, fast forward ten days and check out this AP story from August 24th: Tech Revival Predicted in IPO Market. It talks about what more is now coming in the way of tech IPOs, including NetSuite, EqualLogic, 3Par, and our own Minneapolis-based Compellent.

Look for a very upbeat fall if you’re a tech investor or a participant in the technology venture industry.

It Won’t Just Be Facebook Getting Personal With Ad Targeting

So, the Wall Street Journal screams out this morning, on top of page B1, that ad targeting is coming to social networking site Facebook. See the article here (may require subscription). It seems, in order to justify the $10 billion valuation some of its investors are touting, they’re realizing that — oh, yes — we need to monetize this baby! Yeah, that’s right, before we go IPO…. 🙂 Facebooktargets So, let’s start giving advertisers the ability to pinpoint their ads at just the specific individuals on Facebook, within certain very narrow demographics, that will most be interested in the product or service they’re advertising. Such, after all, is the Holy Grail of marketers everywhere. And, by golly, Facebook sure does seem to be a place where a glorious experiment like this could be carried out.

But, if Facebook needs more monetization of its service, think how much all the other, lesser social networks must, too. There are literally hundreds of thousands of these networks already set up, and more coming online every day. A typical site may only have a few thousand members. Ning alone will soon have 100,000 sites using their social networking platform. And an increasing number of firms offer such platforms for anyone to set up a social network, with basic levels of service that are free. See this recent TechCrunch post, which reviews several of them, and this accompanying chart that compares these offerings in great detail.

Sure, Facebook and MySpace, and a handful of other second-tier sites most people couldn’t name, account for a huge percentage of social networking web traffic today. But the long-tail of social networking sites promises to have traffic at least that big, collectively, ongoing. Have you ever stopped to think how these small players are supposed to monetize their sites? Meaning, get advertiser revenue that can support the cost of running a social network, paying for bandwidth, adding new features and original content, and so forth. The way things stand, there is little they can do now to pay for their sites. Some may be charging members for subscriptions, but that model is surely not one that can gain much traction.

Thus, I say longtail monetization via targeted advertising is the bigger story in social networking, with advertisers getting their ads (or sponsored editorial content) only to the specific demographics they want to reach, out in the long tail. Say, only males 20-30 interested in water sports, living in urban areas in the southest U.S. Perhaps a given ad would appear on hundreds or even thousands of sites, as opposed to a media buy that’s a huge swath of readers on just a single large site. So, for example, instead of buying exposure to 2 million people, the ad may only be seen by 200,000. But the idea is that ad performance will be much better because the audience is more interested in the ad, and more likely to act on it.

I think this latest news of Facebook starting the ball rolling with targeted social networking advertising is great. A large, innovative site like this should rightfully lead the way. But, with specialized ad targeting technology becoming available from new startups, I think it marks the beginning of what could be a much larger trend toward monetization of the entire social networking landscape. And I will surely be following this space very closely.

UPDATE (8/23): To add these links to the latest Hitwise social network rankings….for the U.S. and for the rest of the world.

2nd UPDATE (8/24): Online Media Daily posted a story this morning, by Gavin O’Malley, that attributes quite a statement to Forrester analyst Josh Bernoff — that Facebook’s ad targeting plan “could represent the most significant move in the world of online advertising since the advent of AdSense.”

How the Top Ad Networks Rank

Do you ever wonder how the various online advertising networks compare in size to one another? How much traffic each gets? Well, comScore does a monthly report, and the July numbers just came out, as part of this August 17 press release. (See table 4.) They call this report their “Ad Focus Ranking,” which they define as “top entities supporting online advertising” (it’s U.S. only). Note that not all sites listed in the table are ad networks, just those marked with a double asterisk.

The top five ad networks are (1) Advertising.com, (2) ValueClick, (3) Google Ad Network (yes, it’s true — they’re not first in everything), (4) Tribal Fusion, and (5) Blue Lithium. The “reach” of these five sites — meaning the percentage of the entire Internet population that visited each site at least once in July — ranged from a high of 88% down to 66%. That represents some mighty big numbers, folks — 158 million and 119 million uniques, respectively. These sites are the current top-dogs in the ad network world.

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Of the 50 sites listed in comScore’s Ad Focus Ranking, 21 of them are designated as advertising networks.

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DEMO Alumni Party Packed ‘Em In

I don’t know how many people actually showed up last night at Zibibbo in Palo Alto, but the DEMO folks said more than 500 had pre-registered. It’s a good thing they reserved the whole place for this affair — bar, patio, restaurant — because they needed every bit of that space. It was close quarters! But fun, and I saw many old friends, colleagues, and clients, and met some other interesting people. I thought I’d come pretty far, flying in from Minneapolis just in time (and staying today to do some other business), till I learned some other dude had come from France!

The roster of company founders and their VCs and PR people at this gala was pretty amazing. I could name drop, but I won’t. You could look at my Flickr pix of the party, though, and maybe pick out some you know. The list of companies that DEMO has launched, over some seventeen years, is nothing short of remarkable. What a record this conference has. You can read all about that at Demo.com. And, while you’re there, sign up for DEMOfall ’07 in September in San Diego. I’ll be there with bells on.

Here’s a selection of some on my (bad) photography from last evening. Hey, it’s not easy trying to swill wine with a notebook in one hand and a camera in the other! ….while engaging in charming banter 🙂 Well, trying to, anyway.

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Photo 1: I see the lights, I see the party lights…

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Photo 2: My buddy Shel Israel, doing his best to hold up a structural support….

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Photo 3: A lot of glassware was in motion….it’s a wonder he got through.

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Photo 4: Chris Shipley, DEMO Executive Producer, gave a rousing talk, focusing on recent success stories of DEMO alum companies, old and new….

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Photo 5: Chris Gammill (left) of Teleflip, and Eric Moyer of Boorah, both DEMO ’07 alums….

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Photo 6: Kim Polese, CEO of Spikesource, and Steve Larsen, CEO of Krugle….yes, things were getting fuzzy at this point.

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Photo 7: The sign was lit up as I left….just like me!

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