Reflections & analysis about innovation, technology, startups, investing, healthcare, and more .... with a focus on Minnesota, Land of 10,000 Lakes. Blogging continuously since 2005.

Tag: economy

A Look at How Boredom Became Such a Thing

How’s your #VirusFreakout shutdown been going? I sure was bored. Not the whole time, but a good part of it. Waiting for clients to get going with writing projects and communications strategy engagements was the maddening thing that contributed mostly to my boredom — day after mind-numbingly slow day. So I decided to sit down and write about… what else? Boredom.

girl looking bored

Photo by Tatiana via Pexels

And I surprised myself. I discovered a fascinating topic! It turned out to be a wonderful way to relieve my own boredom. I learned there’s been much written about this topic in recent years — and especially in recent months. Yes, I was not the only writer to trip onto this topic to help pass the time of day.

In fact, I even discovered that boredom has been written about in the world of finance — stock trading, to be specific:

If You’re Bored, You Can Trade Stocks
I didn’t do that, mind you — and won’t. (I’m a buy-and-hold guy.) But here’s a key excerpt from the writer of this great financial newsletter: “The weird thing about the coronavirus crisis is that it simultaneously (1) caused a stock market crash and (2) eliminated most forms of fun. If you like eating at restaurants or bowling or going to movies or going out dancing, now you can’t. If you like watching sports, there are no sports. If you like casinos, they are closed. You’re pretty much stuck inside with your phone. You can trade stocks for free on your phone. That might be fun? It isn’t that fun, compared to either (1) what you’d normally do for fun or (2) trading stocks not in the middle of a recessionary crisis, but those are not the available competition. The available competition is ‘Animal Crossing’ and ‘Tiger King’.”

The author wrote about this phenomenon previously: “We talked last month about what I guess I will call the Boredom Markets Hypothesis, the idea that an important driving force in modern stock markets is the demand of retail investors for entertainment. The basic theory is that ordinary people will do more trading (1) if trading is entertaining and (2) if other things are less entertaining: The more bored they are, the more they will trade stocks.”

He goes on to cite a Bloomberg piece that supported his hypothesis: “Forget buy-and hold. Stuck at home and dreaming of a killing, bored retail traders are branching out into all manner of Wall Street exotica. Darting in and out of stock options, dabbling in complicated exchange-traded funds, devouring trading how-to books by the dozen — all have become tools in the self-directed portfolio playbook. Locked down and socially distant with lots of time and (apparently) money to spare, they’re leveraging zero-percent brokerage fees in new and surprising ways.”

And he adds this interesting little insight: “The number of investors at Robinhood currently holding the U.S. Oil Fund (USO), the biggest exchange-traded fund invested in oil, stands at 171,000, 20 times the number of users that held the fund in early March, according to website Robintrack, which uses Robinhood’s data to show trends in positioning but isn’t affiliated with it. The popularity of the fund only increased after negative oil prices captivated and confused traders…. Ordinarily, one thinks of retail traders as momentum followers who sell stocks when they go down. But when investments go down in an entertaining way—USO plunged in March, and has had troubles ever since, because it owns oil futures that can now go below zero—traders flock to it because, you know, at least they can feel something. ‘Ooh, a stock that can go below zero,’ they almost say, ‘that’s new, sounds fun, I want that’.”

I found that whole discussion extremely entertaining — in my own little boredom world. And I’m now hooked on this guy’s newsletter.

But I discovered so much more.

Bored games – Every day suddenly feels the same. That doesn’t have to be a problem.
We’re told by this writer to just let boredom happen… “even for just a short time, (it) allows us to think about what it is telling us. Maybe right now we can’t pursue all the things we normally find meaningful, but spending the time deliberately thinking about what matters most is never a bad thing. Then we can choose to act. The scope of what we do — learning a new language or just baking a cake — matters less than the fact that we are the ones doing the choosing.” Yes, you are the master of your boredom fate. So choose your cure carefully and happily, I guess.

Is It Burnout or Boredom? The Answer Matters.
Assuming it’s the latter, the author has this recommendation for entrepreneurs: “Marry your mission all over again. Over time, entrepreneurs occasionally lose sight of the reason they started their companies. If you’re having trouble connecting to your mission, you may need to revise it or at least get to know it again. See whether your original mission still matters to you, and rework it if it doesn’t. That way, you’ll feel more in tune with your company’s output, which should help energize your work. Re-examine your initial business plans, and revisit the places or memories that inspired you to open shop. Returning to your original passion will help you gain perspective on why it might not be a good fit any longer or how you lost your connection to it. Journaling and speaking with trusted mentors are two activities that can give you a sense of perspective, enabling you to rediscover your spark.” Imagine that — actually talking to people you trust can be a cure for boredom. Yeah, okay. Brilliant.

The Surprising Benefits of Being Bored
Many of us shy away from boredom, but it’s actually very good for creativity, according to one expert: Sandi Mann, a senior psychology lecturer at the University of Central Lancashire in the UK. “We lead incredibly busy lives, constantly hopping from one task to the next, and when we’re blessed with a little bit of downtime, we pick up our phones, and scroll the boredom away. But is that the best way use of our time?” Mann says boredom is an essential part of the creative process and should be applied to our day-to-day lives. She thinks we should try not to fear boredom when it hits us. “We should embrace it,” she says – a philosophy that she has now taken into her own life. “Instead of saying I’m bored when I’m stuck in traffic, I’ll put music on and allow my mind to wander – knowing that it’s good for me. And I let my kids be bored too – because it’s good for their creativity.” Of course, her whole professional career is about studying boredom, so of course she would train her kids.

Being Bored Can Be Good for You — If You Do It Right. Here’s How.
This one gets down to some prescriptives for all you millions of Covid shutdown folks out there. Here’s a long excerpt:

“If you’re waiting for brilliance to strike, try getting bored first. That’s the takeaway of a study published recently in the journal Academy of Management Discoveries [there’s a journal for that?], which found that boredom can spark individual productivity and creativity.” The article again cites Sandi Mann, who’s also authored a book entitled “The Upside of Downtime: Why Boredom Is Good,” and a proponent of embracing that emotion, negative connotations and all. Here are some ways she says being bored can be a good thing for your mind, imagination, and productivity, and how to do it right (these are article excerpts):
• As demonstrated by the new study and plenty others before it, boredom can enable creativity and problem-solving by allowing the mind to wander and daydream. “There’s no other way of getting that stimulation, so you have to go into your head,” Mann says. You may be surprised by what you come up with when you do (says the article).
• Step away from screens, work, and other stressors long enough to feel bored. Studies have shown, for example, that modern tools including work emails, social media, and dating apps can strain mental health — so taking a break can be a valuable opportunity to recharge.
• Mann says it’s important not to conflate boredom with relaxation. A purposefully tranquil activity, such as yoga or meditation, likely doesn’t meet the definition of trying and failing to find stimulation. To tap into true boredom, she suggests picking an activity that requires little or no concentration — like walking a familiar route, swimming laps, or even just sitting with your eyes closed — and simply letting your mind wander, without music or stimulation to guide it. [My emphasis there.] Mann says our cultural attachment to our phones is paradoxically both destroying our ability to be bored, and preventing us from ever being truly entertained. [Yikes, that’s a heavy insight!] “We’re trying to swipe and scroll the boredom away, but in doing that, we’re actually making ourselves more prone to boredom, because every time we get our phone out we’re not allowing our mind to wander and to solve our own boredom problems.”

Got that, phone phreaks?

The article has a great conclusion: “Next time you find yourself in line at the grocery store, in a tedious meeting, or killing time in a waiting room, resist the urge to scroll. You’re bound to get bored — and your brain, mood, and work performance just might improve.”

So, it’s all good — boredom is the best thing that could possibly come out of a total shutdown of our economy.

Yeah, right! But I’ve had enough of it for a while, thank you very much. And so have a lot of other people, as you can see from Google Trends:

Google Trends graph on search term "Boredom"

Now I’m totally ready for the Big Open that’s coming our way!

———

P.S. By the way, to cure my boredom over the past couple of months, one thing I did was play carpenter. I replaced a large part of my deck and built a deck gate – from scratch! – the photos of which you see here. I dutifully posted these to my Instagram page (which I only go to when I’m really bored). What did you do?

two photos showing the work Graeme did on his deck during the coronavirus shutdown

 

Gov. Doug Burgum Touts ND, Rich Karlgaard Sizes Up the Economy

event ballroom and stage

North Dakota has a lot going for it. The state embodies many good, positive things. The spirit of the pioneering American West. The frontier. Teddy Roosevelt. Hard work. Endless possibilities. Family values. The great American farmer. It also happens to have one of the best damn football programs in the entire U.S.A.: the NDSU Bison. Oh, and not the least, a booming economy.

I consider myself lucky to live in the next-door state, where I can closely admire what’s going on there. So, early Thursday morning, February 20th, I jumped in my car and headed Northwest to Fargo to attend the annual “Economic Outlook” luncheon event put on by the Fargo-Moorhead-West Fargo Chamber of Commerce.

It was fantastic! I’d only heard about it a few days earlier, in one of the email newsletters I get regularly from the fine folks at the Emerging Prairie organization.  (Thank you, Greg.) I knew it would be a bit of a time investment — a seven-hour round trip! But I happened to have the day open, and I quickly decided I just couldn’t miss the main speaker, my friend Rich Karlgaard (who happens to be a native of Bismarck, North Dakota).

Rich is the longtime Publisher of Forbes and a well known  futurist and speaker, whom the Chamber described as “one of the most influential and respected figures in the technology, economic, and business worlds. He advises audiences on how to harness an organization’s disruptive spirits to maximize business opportunities in the global marketplace. He’s also a regular panelist on one of cable news’ most popular business shows, Forbes on FOX.” Rich has a long bio, and you can learn more about him here, including his many great books. He’s one of my all-time favorite people in the tech business! We originally met some 20 years ago, and I manage to connect with him from time to time.

I arrived about 40 minutes early and was lucky enough to run into Rich as soon as I walked in. So we had a nice chance to catch up before the crowd started arriving. The event was held in a huge ballroom, and Rich drew a full house of business leaders. It was a packed,  high-energy affair!

Doug Burgum (left) and Rich Karlgaard

Doug Burgum (l) and Rich Karlgaard.

As we chatted in the big room, just as it was starting to fill, he saw his friend and colleague Doug Burgum, the noted software founder, VC, and now the Governor of North Dakota, walk into the room. So, we headed over to chat with him. I of course know Doug’s VC firm, Arthur Ventures, quite well and regularly stay in touch with some of the folks there. But Doug has been focused on serving as Governor since assuming that office more than three years ago. He was slated to give some opening remarks.

Times Are Good in North Dakota

“Every region in the country would trade places with us,” Doug declared after taking the stage. “There’s never been a better time for us here!” Then he started ticking off a list of ratings for his state:

• #1 Best Place to Raise a Family

• #1 for Millennials

• Fargo is the #1 Hottest Job Market, with Bismarck (the capitol) coming in at #9

• And, as we’ve all heard by now, North Dakota is the #2 Oil Producing State

“We’re powering and feeding the world,” the Governor said. He also noted that North Dakota ranks high in broadband deployment — one of the most connected states in the U.S.  As one of the top agriculture states, and arguably the most technologically advanced in ag tech, he said, “We need to have every combine connected!”

He went on to say that his state has one of the lowest unemployment rates, and that it needs more workers and education. “Our number-one priority is developing a larger, better educated workforce.”

The Main Event

Billed as a talk on “Tech, Trade, Turbulence, and the 2020 Election,” it was now time to hear from the keynoter, Rich Karlgaard. He began by saying he’s now been with Forbes for 28 years. (I remember when he began as editor of a brand-new publication called Forbes ASAP, after being a key team member of a ground-breaking Silicon Valley-based publication called Upside, which I loved and was where I first came to know him. I had the honor of introducing Rich at a huge event in downtown Minneapolis in 2000  — that will provide some more color about his early career.)

Rich Karlgaard on stageRich kicked off by mentioning a couple of his recent books, “The Soft Edge” and “Team Genius.” The latter, he said, received praise from Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, and — interesting tidbit — Rich noted that Satya once reported to Doug Burgum at Microsoft. Then Rich quickly dove into a hot topic of the  moment, the 2020 elections, as the latest Democratic train wreck debate had just happened the night before. His first slide spoke of “The Grim Logic of Money,” referring to the massive sums at play for Bernie and Bloomberg. He commented on some of the candidates, noting that Minnesota’s Amy Klobuchar “can’t get into orbit,” and that Nate Silver, the noted statistician, recently said Bernie will come up short of delegates, at only 1500-some, when 1991 are needed to get the nomination. He said it’s looking like a brokered convention this summer — “a mess like Chicago” (referring to 1968).

Rich dove right into a rapid-fire talk with many slides, touching on a  whole array of topics. It was hard to keep up the note-taking, but I was trying:

GDP Growth Rates

Trump has averaged 2.6% 2017-2019. Obama averaged 2.2%  2009-2016. George W. Bush averaged 2.1% 2001-2008 (but that last year was the financial crash). With the you-know-what virus scare, GDP in Q1 2020 will not be good, he said. But he nonetheless sees 2.2 to 2.3% growth for the year — a solid “B.”

Reasons for Hope

“Stocks are still undervalued — there’s room to grow,” said Karlgaard. He noted the increase in housing starts in December of 16.9%. Combined mortgage and household debt is near the bottom of the recent historical range. Interest payments on federal debt as a percent of GDP are way down. And CEO confidence rebounded in Q4 according to the Conference Board. “Also, small business optimism is going up,” he said. “It dipped a bit in Q4 but remains high.”

Life in the Valley

Rich put up a slide of Peter Thiel, the noted conservative VC and billionaire founder, who used to be in Silicon Valley but now lives in LA. Not sure the subtle point there, but Rich made a funny comment: “We conservative Republicans in Silicon Valley could hold our quarterly meetings in a phone booth.”

Bits vs. Atoms

Speaking in North Dakota, Rich couldn’t help but bring up what he calls the “atoms industries” — meaning mining, agriculture, industrial production, manufacturing. The kinds of industries where it’s harder to raise capital — as opposed to the digital industry centered in Silicon Valley, where money flows. (But a side note here: North Dakota is also a major software hub, with the Microsoft Dynamics business in Fargo being one of the largest employers in the state.)

Calling a 2020 Winner

“Trump is favored by voters in the world of atoms,” he said. “Meanwhile, Dems assume they’re better at digital things.” The Obama campaign in 2012 “cleaned Mitt Romney’s clock,” with social media and other digital tools. But, Rich said, look out for Brad Parscale, Trump’s digital campaign manager in 2016, who’s now heading the entire campaign in 2020. He cited a commentator who calls him “smart and dangerous.”

So, the digital edge may be changing. “Look what the Dems did in Iowa!” Karlgaard exclaimed — meaning the big digital fail. He predicts Trump wins easily in November.

Tech Trends that Are “Mega”

So, where are things headed in tech? Rich’s Megatrend #1 is this: “The tech economy is not slowing down — it’s speeding up.” The old Moore’s Law  essentially brought us a 30% improvement each year. But advances in semiconductors will soon be taking us from 30 billion to 60 billion transistors per chip. Taiwan Semiconductor just announced it will be opening a production facility for 3-nanometer silicon — a feat unheard of not long ago. He put up a slide citing “The New Engine of Disruption: Diane Greene’s Law” (she being the recent head of Google’s cloud division, and formerly a cofounder of VMware.) The new norm this brings us, says Karlgaard, is “a 60% annual improvement in digital bang for the buck.” He also quoted Scott Guthrie, head of Microsoft Azure: “Cloud not only scales up — it scales out, to users.” That referring to computing at the edge, which brings us advances like “near-instant trend analysis.” What industries will be transformed in the next decade? Here’s the slide: list of industries that will be transformed

Megatrend #2: “Extreme valuation creates asymmetric funding.” To illuminate, Rich cited the valuation of Tesla, currently at about $166 billion, as compared to GM at $49 billion. “Tesla’s getting free money,” he said. “They roll the dice! The investors want that.” GM, on the other hand, has investors that are primarily pension funds — and they don’t like or want change. What this trend results in, he said, is “repeated assaults to the profits of legacy companies.” And he couldn’t help but cite the current number of “unicorn” companies: it’s now up to 524.

Megatrend #3: “Digital awareness is becoming more important.” And here Rich delves into what the says are best practices — one being “cultural clarity.” Companies  have to know who they are, what they’ll do, and what they won’t do. He showed  what Fred Smith, CEO of FedEx, calls his triangle of health for companies: “Execution” on the left, “Values” on the right, and “Strategy” on the bottom. And he cited Scheel’s, a privately held, employee-owned sporting goods and entertainment chain headquartered in Fargo, which is “a good example of executing on its self-identity.” Another couple of best practices come out in his 2015 book, Team Genius: 1) small is better when it comes to teams, and 2) seek cognitive diversity — meaning both analytical and intuitive people. An example he cited: the pairing of two opposites at Starbucks: Howard Schultz and Howard Behar. When its rapid growth stalled, and customer service was suffering, the hard-charging Schultz promoted the other Howard to deal with the soft side of the business. Behar, not an analytical type and not even a college grad, was critical to the creation of what became Starbucks unique culture, eventually becoming president of Starbucks North America and Starbucks International. Another example of teaming: Fred Smith at FedEx had the “inside view” nailed, but he recruited a key outsider from Silicon Valley as a board member: Judy Estrin, who brought the digital view. Finally, Karlgaard talked about all the Silicon Valley technical-genius founders and cofounders with 800 math SAT scores: Woz, Zuck, and many other well-known names. “No HR manager ever got fired for hiring 800 scores!” But there’s a lot more to talent in the world of cognitively diverse teams in this digital age.

Do you know how many players got list of Karlgaard's "Super Powers"drafted ahead of Tom Brady, he asked? There were scores of them — and he showed many of the names you’ve never even heard of. So the question he asks is, “How do you find more Tom Bradys?” That’s a topic Rich addresses in his most recent book, Late Bloomers (also coming out in paperback soon). And he gave us a brief list of what he puts forth in that book as his key “Super Powers” — shown in the slide here. (I have the book and recommend it — in fact, I brought it along to get Rich to sign it!)

During the audience Q&A following his talk, Rich made an interesting comment about Fargo-Moorhead: “I think it punches well above its weight. I see it as a smaller Austin TX or Columbus OH.” Yes, indeed — population isn’t everything. Intangibles matter.

As the event ended and Rich was being interviewed by a local TV station, I chatted with a few good folks I’d met, then jumped back into my car to get back home before dark. My head was buzzing all the way back down Interstate 94. So glad I made the trip!

 

 

 

 

 

The Clear and Simple Solution to the Current Downturn: The Entrepreneurial Economy

The big answer to our current economic plight is not a new one: it is staring us right in the face. It has brought us out of many a recession before this one, and it will do so again. It is simply this: the ingenuity and perseverance of the American entrepreneur. Something never be taken lightly! 

I was delighted to recently stumble across a blog post from GrowThink entitled The "Downturn" — Keeping Things in Perspective, by the firm's founder, Jay TuroIt is so good, I just want to do everything I can to spread it. GrowThink-blog
I *so* wish I would have written it, because this every message has been going around in my head for some time now. And it's a message I guarantee you won't get from the mainstream media!

I wanted to call it out here as required reading.  What you should get out of it is this: stop paying attention to the "woe-is-me" media … flight negativity with every bone in your body … and do everything you can to support our country's strong, ever-committed entrepreneurial economy.  It is THE major source of new jobs and wealth creation in this country, and we all benefit from it greatly in myriad ways, directly or indirectly.  It has been, and will continue to be, what makes our economy grow, and our country great.  And no recession can hold it down!  People, layoffs are about the past — the entrepreneurial economy is about the future…and change, positive change!!

I believe the year 2009 will bring great things, and I'm very proud to say I'm a supporter and believer in American Capitalism.  It is the best political and economic system in the world, and it's a strong now as it ever was.

UPDATE 12/22/08: I was delighted to see that my friend Brian Solis wrote an *absolutely awesome* post on TechCrunch the day after I posted the above, called Fear Kills Businesses, Dead.  It's a great complement to what I'm saying here in my post.  There are so many reasons for businesses to be positive — yes, right now — particularly if you're a lean, mean, nimble tech startup!  Read this post by Brian, and take it to heart!  It even quotes my friend and past client Steve Larsen, who used to be based here in Minnesota.  (See an article I wrote on Steve earlier this year, which appeared on "Chief Executive" magazine's site: Zen and the Art of Startup Maintenance.)