Reflections & analysis about innovation, technology, startups, investing, healthcare, and more .... with a focus on Minnesota, Land of 10,000 Lakes. Blogging continuously since 2005.

Tag: startups (Page 1 of 19)

How Two Midwest VCs Have Mastered Success Through Multiple Tech Cycles

For twin brothers Rob and Ryan Weber, founding partners of Great North Ventures in Minnesota, entrepreneurship began in college, just as the Internet was taking off in 1996. As computer science majors (and Rob later switching to entrepreneurial studies), they learned quickly that Internet traffic could be monetized. Over a few years, they built several websites that became profitable businesses before they even graduated.

headshots of Rob and Ryan Weber

Rob Weber (left) and Ryan Weber, Founding Partners of Great North Ventures.

They tell a favorite story. An LA company wanted to buy their business and flew them out. They’d never flown anywhere, and were too young to rent a car, so they brought along their mom, whom they introduced as their marketing consultant. But they decided not to sell. Why should they, when they were enjoying making lots of money, having come from humble beginnings? But their real passion was to continue building things no one else was doing. When the dot-com crash came in 2000, they were well positioned to weather the storm, having consolidated their businesses into a profitable entity that, being based in Minnesota, they playfully named Freeze.com.

This is the story of how they moved on from winning in that early tech cycle to master those that followed, and how they positioned themselves to win in what is now the biggest cycle of them all.

Investing in Others’ Ideas

In the early- to mid-2000s, not only were Rob and Ryan running their successful Freeze.com business, which grew to some 30 employees, but they soon became angel investors on the side, backing promising businesses they saw some of their peers starting. And that brought them rewards later when they realized exits from some of these investments. It was a harbinger of things to come, as they went on to became successful VCs in later years. (More on that soon.)

What happened just a few years after the dot-com era was the dawning of another huge cycle, driven of course by mobile technology — and most notably by the iPhone, beginning in 2007. The Webers’ business, which had by now adopted the name W3i, jumped on the opportunity to benefit from the explosion of opportunity that presented itself in mobile advertising.

Lessons Learned

Looking back, what did the Weber brothers learn from their experience in those first two tech cycles?

“In our high school to early college days, we spent 1996 to 2000 marketing our different websites, so that by the time we launched Freeze.com, we already had an in-depth understanding of how to grow an Internet publishing business efficiently,” said Rob. “While others were burning huge amounts of VC capital in the late ’90s, we were growing a bootstrapped publishing business built on a strong foundation. What really set us apart from other dot-com businesses at the time was our proprietary business intelligence system, which gave us a competitive advantage in optimizing traffic acquisition and site optimization, including proprietary A/B testing systems.”

“We were heavy users of performance data,” said Ryan. “We pushed the limits of data center capacity in the early 2000s, actually having to build out our own.” (Note: well before the cloud tech cycle.) “We ran thousands of experiments optimizing our website using A/B testing through our proprietary back-end publishing technology. That allowed us to dominate the category of free PC software versus other rivals for many years, leading to strong profitability. We built recommendation systems early-on using data we collected to optimize the performance of our website.”

Rob added: “When the dot-com bust occurred in 2000, the tide went out on thousands of VC-backed dot-com businesses. Those that survived and thrived were the ones that focused on iterating quickly and taking a very analytical approach to delivering efficient, lasting growth.” Freeze.com was indeed one of those.

Technology Was Paramount

Ryan Weber recounted lessons learned as the brothers built their expanded business, W3i, and leveraged the latest technology advances, including AI and ML (That business was later renamed NativeX.) “We recruited Dr. James Shanahan, a PhD in machine learning then affiliated with UC Berkeley. Under his guidance, we developed predictive advertising models that leveraged non-personally identifiable data we collected from our embedded SDK in popular iPhone and Google Play apps and games. Our prediction models were leveraged to increase conversion rates for our advertisers.”

NativeX’s ad tech allowed developers to make more money off their apps. For example, Sega was one gaming firm that partnered with NativeX to boost its mobile advertising revenue. “We operated in the mobile ad tech space,” said Rob. “There were hundreds of competitive companies. We had a successful exit — most didn’t. Applovin became one of the other big winners. Their team delivered incredibly high-performing AI models.”

Rob offers some insightful history in this regard. “Early on, Amazon performed extensive experimentation and A/B testing to optimize customer lifetime value. Unlike many competitors who focused on short-term profits, Amazon’s foundational ‘customer obsession’ and long-term perspective led it to make strategic bets on what would build loyalty and increase customer spending over time. This was similar to the system we built early on with Freeze.com. Obviously we didn’t achieve the scale of Amazon, but with a similar approach, we grew very fast and efficiently.”

In the early days of the App Store, which launched in 2008, the most common way to make money from an app was to charge for it, often 99 cents. “But just like with the web, over time it was the free apps that quickly went on to dominate the traffic on mobile,” said Rob. “And just like the Facebook games, which grew extremely quickly just prior to this time period, free-to-play games leveraging virtual currencies dominated the top-grossing charts in the App Store. We knew that not all popular free games and apps were great for driving demand for virtual currency, so we focused on creating a system to help games and apps that had poor monetization to make more money. Just like earlier when we focused on PC software categories that generated excessive amounts of traffic but that consumers were unwilling to pay for.”

Leveraging Some Heavyweight Experience

The Weber brothers never really needed outside investment as they grew their profitable businesses. But, in their journey to grow W3i / NativeX, they realized that taking some angel investment from certain key, longtime Silicon Valley tech execs, whom they had met, would bring value to their business. These investors became valuable advisors and mentors as the brothers expanded the business to 170 employees. They were successful operators who guided them at critical junctures. And they benefited when NativeX went on to be acquired in 2016.

“We also tapped the strength of the technology ecosystem here in our own state of Minnesota, in terms of managing and leading as a data-driven technology business,” said Ryan. This was as the mobile tech cycle was leading right into the cloud cycle. “We hired Andy Johnson as our CEO. Andy’s background as an executive at various companies gave him a front-row view of the world’s leading database marketing solutions and some of the organizational and business requirements to scale such a business, which was helpful to us for our digital advertising model.”

NativeX built the technology it needed and also leveraged other talent in the San Francisco Bay Area. With the aforementioned Dr. James Shanahan, an adjunct professor at Berkeley, Ryan said they were able to recruit top PhD students to work for them that were primarily looking to gain experience before commanding top market wages. The competition for this talent was fierce, Ryan recounts. “But the key was having a leader who was a competent mentor and coach. Shanahan was very personable, encouraging his team to be a part of the company and to fully engage in team-building activities. He knew the stakes were high and went out of his way to build and retain key talent. Also, Shanahan was active in the industry, striving to understand the state of the art. That included, extremely early-on, following advances in neural networks and their breakthrough uses of ‘deep learning’ – foundational research sparking massive interest in AI, which eventually led to LLMs – and seeking to figure out the trajectory and potential for our business.”

“At W3i, we had only built our A/B testing capabilities internally, and we outsourced multi-variable optimization to companies that had capabilities using statistical and machine-learning systems, including one that came out of MIT,” said Ryan. “But as we evolved to NativeX, we required high-capacity systems that could train offline models, using statistical and machine-learning in an ensemble approach, which could then be deployed to make decisions based on predictions in less than 200 milliseconds. With NativeX, we essentially built an intelligent ad server for determining the effectiveness of ads served towards a targeted outcome for the advertiser.”

While NativeX was reaching its full potential in May 2014, VentureBeat, a tech innovation news outlet, ranked the Webers’ company No. 6 on a list of the top-10 most effective monetization companies. Fast forward, in February 2016, Mobvista announced plans to acquire NativeX as part of its global expansion in a deal reported to have paid gross proceeds of about $25 million in cash.

Moving On to Their Next Big Act

After NativeX was acquired, the Webers made a significant transition in their careers. With their notable success as operators in the dot-com cycle and, later, in the mobile and cloud tech cycles now behind them, they took some time to think about their next move.

“Ryan and I had been successful angel investors for 10 years at that point, but we had never talked about launching a fund until a year after we sold NativeX,” said Rob. “We had seen a small number of new VC funds spring up, and we felt we could deliver more value to founders by sharing our operational knowledge with them. We knew the operational guidance provided by most VC funds was shallow, because most general partners had never scaled a business before and lacked perspective.”

Startup founders will invariably say they prefer VCs who are former operators. They know they’ve been in their shoes. They’re very aware the road is far from easy. Like them, operator VCs have clawed their way through the tough times, pitched endlessly, suffered all the turn-downs, built teams, and struggled to get to product-market fit. The Weber brothers were confident that founders wanted investors who not only get all that, but have actually lived through it.

So, in 2017, the brothers embarked on the launch of their first VC fund, which they initially called Great North Labs (later changed to Great North Ventures). They ultimately raised just under $24 million for that first fund.

Was that transition from operator to VC difficult? Did the idea of pitching investors rather than customers mark a radical change for them? “We were blessed to find early support from limited partners who knew about our success as founders and angel investors from our prior 15-plus years of history with startups,” said Rob.

Looking back, Rob said: “If you had walked into our office while we were growing our W3i / NativeX business, on the walls throughout there were LCD screens with the KPIs for our budget and the KPIs related to our business. We knew hour by hour exactly how we were doing. I miss that part of it, the real-time operating aspect. You don’t get that in an investment business. As a VC, you don’t control businesses, you just own small percentages of your portfolio companies. But when you’ve seen things work and not work, you do get to make suggestions. That’s the value with an operator-led fund such as ours. We’ve been there.”

Ryan added: “Yes, we certainly provide mentoring and coaching as an operator-led fund. We also have many supporters who have scaled businesses. So, we’re serious about actively helping our founders, either ourselves or by tapping our supporters who have the right domain expertise. In addition, we have relationships with local talent and international talent, and that includes full-time, fractional, and agency-type contractor relationships. We know at which stage it would make sense to put any of these in the seat.”

Looking for the Best Founders

So, how do the Weber brothers agree on deciding to invest in a given startup? What key things do they look for?

Says Ryan: “At Great North, we’re founder-first and economics-driven. We back gritty, insight-led teams solving urgent problems in large markets.”

Rob adds this: “Number one, I’d say we look for ‘blue ocean’. Have the founders identified a new market space, or a new approach to an existing market, and become a ‘one-of-one’ company with no meaningful direct substitutes? Number two, we look for customer acquisition advantage. Companies that have identified an efficient way to scale.”

What are some key traits these VC brothers look for in a founder before investing? That was an easy response for Rob: “We like those that demonstrate speed of execution early on.”

And he expanded: “Another value we look for in entrepreneurs is accountability. By that, I mean don’t be a victim. Don’t let people tell you no. I think you’ll see this pattern with successful entrepreneurs. They’re going from zero to one with or without you, and you’re either on the bus or you’re off. But they’re doing it. They’re not waiting for someone to decide if they can do it. They’re doing it.”

When Ryan is asked his take, he has even more to say: “Grit plus velocity. Founders who are relentlessly resourceful, ship and learn fast, and show consistent weekly progress. We look for founders that have a clear, data-backed thesis and a deep empathy for the user and their problems.”

Finally, Ryan said. “We look for ‘talent and selling magnetism.’ Can they recruit A-players and win customers and partners with crisp, metrics-driven storytelling.”

Early Success Leads to Fund II

Great North Fund I, closed in 2018 at just under $24 million, has 15 remaining portfolio companies and is fully deployed, except for limited follow-on investments. Fund I breakout companies in Fintech and Proptech have achieved scale, and continue to grow very quickly and capital efficiently, including Branch and WithMe.

With the Webers’ background in publishing optimization, Great North has even invested in certain Media Tech companies, such as Featured.com and Pear Commerce.

The success of Fund I led to Great North Ventures closing its Fund II in 2022, at a much larger total of $41 million, with many new limited partners participating. That fund is now invested in 27 companies to date, with approximately $15 million of its funds remaining to be deployed, including as follow-on investments.

Now the Great North Ventures team also has its sights on the launch of Fund III. Stay tuned!

The Biggest Big Tech Cycle of All Now in Full Swing

Today, it’s quite clear the era of AI innovation is here and rapidly taking hold. Great North Ventures is actively investing what it sees as the best opportunities, positioning the firm for even more success in its role as an experienced investment partner. Its latest investment themes have focused on vertical AI applications, fintech, proptech, and enterprise productivity.

What’s an example of these themes that Great North Ventures sees today? And what are some portfolio companies leveraging these themes? “I’ve heard others cite ‘SaaS-plus’ – but I call it embedded finance,” said Rob. “The Total Addressable Market for many vertical software companies can appear small but, through embedding financial products, the expansion revenue can exceed the expectations of most. We first saw this with one of our earlier angel investments, FieldNation. We are now seeing similar expansion opportunities in companies in our portfolio like HLRBO. We also like to invest in the infrastructure companies that are supporting this trend, such as Yardstik and LendAPI, both also in our Great North Ventures portfolio.”

Inspired By Break-Out Startups

When judging a VC firm, one of course looks at the growth of the companies in its portfolio. That growth has been impressive for the Webers. It’s also informative to ask these twin brothers what inspires them to further success – namely, what’s a favorite break-out startup that’s not in your portfolio?

“I admire what the founders of Sezzle have been able to build,” Rob said. “From our earliest conversations with them, when they were just starting, they were adamant the existing Buy-Now-Pay-Later companies like Affirm and AfterPay were not serving under-banked consumers well. They found there was an enormous opportunity to use AI and other available data to make better credit decisions.” (Note: Sezzle was founded in Minnesota in 2016, and was just ranked the second-fastest growing public company in the state, up from 18th fastest the prior year.)

Ryan cites another one: “I admire Brad Dwyer at Roboflow from Des Moines, Iowa. He’s the archetypal ‘builder.’ He learns by shipping, turns frontier tech into practical workflows, and iterates ruthlessly from real user pain. He’s also a community catalyst and talent magnet, consistently expanding the circle around the company. This is a Midwest breakout that reflects the traits we prize.”

Where Great North Ventures Goes From Here

A recent study by MIT found a 95% failure rate by enterprises trying new Generative AI tools. Yet startups are succeeding by creating visible wins in narrow workflows, then expanding. The same study finds a 67% success rate in full deployment.

“Think in terms of the last mile of AI,” Rob Weber contends. “In this GenAI mega cycle, the startups that deliver immediate value are going to win.”

The Weber brothers are quick to identify the unique value proposition of their planned Great North Ventures Fund III. It is based on their team having demonstrated a successful entrepreneurial and investing track record through past mega innovation cycles – dot-com, mobile, and cloud – which gives them the unique ability to attract the top startups and talent fueling today’s mega-cycle: Generative AI. “The largest gains businesses are seeing from GenAI,” according to Rob Weber, “are coming from startups that are solving narrowly focused problems and expanding outwards. We believe these are ideal conditions for a small, vertically focused VC fund.”

As they look to continue their investment from Fund II, and from the future Fund III, Rob and Ryan define their firm as operator-investors focused on Vertical AI and Embedded Finance — a pairing they believe will produce the most capital-efficient, defensible companies of the next cycle. The firm’s sweet spot is seed-stage teams turning frontier capability into practical, measurable outcomes, fast. Great North is active in real estate/proptech, financial services (banking, payments, lending, insurance), and media/advertising tech – areas with clear pain, measurable outcomes, and fast commercialization. The firm invests both in full-stack vertical apps and in infrastructure that lets those apps embed finance safely and quickly.

Bottom line, they say: “We back founders who can ship, prove, and compound – turning AI into workflow, and workflow into durable fintech economics.”

———-

Note: This post first appeared on the Great North Ventures website, with my byline, and here’s my bio that appeared with it:

Graeme Thickins is a startup advisor and an investor in Great North Ventures Fund I. He is also an angel investor in two subsequent Great North portfolio companies. He has written previously for and about Great North Ventures and its founders over several years.

Who Knew? Airbnb for Boats!

Boat ownership in Minnesota is second only to Florida (despite our weather being, um, less than half as good!). But here’s a better stat: Minnesota leads the nation in most boats per capita as of 2021.

Example of boat type available on Lake MinnetonkaOf course, we are famously called the “Land of 10,000 Lakes,” so it stands to reason. But Minnesota actually has 14,444 lakes of 10 acres or more, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. No wonder we love boating!

GetMyBoat is the world’s largest boat rental marketplace. Yes, it’s been called the GetMyBoat logoAirbnb of boats. Do people stay overnight in boats? Well, only the bigger ones that have such accommodations, I guess. But you can’t blame the company for liking the comparison. Most of their rentals, I’m suspecting, are a day at a time — though I’ve noticed week-long rentals are offered by some owners. But, surely, living on a big boat for a month while working remotely would be an intriguing escape for some digital nomads, no?

Big Money Can Float a Lot of Boats

chart of boat ownership by state

Top 10 States for Boat Ownership in 2020 – Source: Statista (click to enlarge)

It should come as no surprise that boat owners in Minnesota have discovered GetMyBoat. And I suspect many more will be, as expansion is definitely in the works for GetMyBoat. It just announced it has received $21 million in a Series B funding, with boat manufacturing company Yanmar Global, based on Osaka, Japan, taking a majority stake in the company. Yanmar has worked with GetMyBoat since 2018.

In the past two years alone, despite the challenges experienced by the travel and leisure industries worldwide, GetMyBoat says it has achieved 10X revenue growth and now “offers more than 150,000 boat rentals and water experiences across 9,300 destinations.”

Pontoon boat, Voyageurs Nat'l ParkGetMyBoat has a mobile app for iOS and Android that enables users to rent a boat right from their phones. In the news release, the company said, “Our mission is to make the joys of boating more affordable and accessible, and with this growth capital from Yanmar, we will be able to fully realize that dream.”

GetMyBoat is a fully remote company, with headquarters in Foster City, California. A large portion of its team is in South Africa, and it has employees in Toronto, North Carolina, Virginia Beach, and more.

The Local Connection

In Minnesota, the company currently has just one employee, but more than 85 watercraft owners are on the platform here as of March 2022. Of course, in the summer, I learned that number will increase a lot as owners “re-publish” their boats on the platform. SuperAirNautique boat“I’m in close contact with some of our owners here,” said Val Streif, marketing manager, based in Northeast Minneapolis. “Many of them have reported really great stories of growing their side hustle businesses, renting out their boats in the summer months or serving as full-time boat captains for their rentals.” Hmmm, is this a way to ease the payment pressure from those 15-year boat loans many have to take out to live their dreams on the water?

The only outside investor in GetMyBoat is Yanmar as of now. The company has been otherwise funded by the cofounders, serial entrepreneurs Sascha Mornell, CEO, and Example of houseboat available at some locationsRaf Collado. Quite the non-standard startup story! The company launched in 2013, and Yanmar invested for the first round in 2018.

All the Minnesota boats currently on the platform can be seen at this link. There’s a description for each listing saying what the owner/operator offers. The most popular listings in our state currently are on Lake Minnetonka, the St. Croix River, Prior Lake, and the greater Bemidji lakes area. (The photos in this post represent some of those offerings.)

The majority of GetMyBoat’s business is in the United States, but it has a large presence in the Caribbean, Canada, Mexico, and the Mediterranean, and Streif says the company is growing globally.Canoeing, somewhere in Minnesota

So what’s the range of watercraft sizes on the platform? I was told the smallest is a paddleboard (maybe I should rent mine?), and the largest are some superyachts (but none owned by Russian oligarchs, I have been assured!). And there are a whole lot of sizes in between — everything from kayaks and canoes to speedboats, cabin cruisers, pontoons, ski and wakesurfing boats, and even houseboats.

I asked Streif if all the larger boat rentals come with captain included. “No, people can choose boat listings based on this option,” she said. “I would say the vast majority of boat rentals on our platform are captained charters, but it’s not always the case. It will Big party on a Minnesota boatsay on the boat listing either ‘Captain is Included’, ‘Captain is Optional’, or ‘Captain is Not Included’.”

For those rentals with no captain, I asked if the cost is high because of insurance expense. “It’s not necessarily super expensive when it comes to insurance.” she said. “We have some insurance partners that offer bareboat, or non-captained, coverage at competitive rates. The key for boat owners is to make sure, for their own insurance policy, that it covers bareboat rentals when they’re renting out their boats to Ski boat on Gull Lake near Brainerd MNcustomers on the platform without a licensed captain.”

GetMyBoat sees itself as “the driving force in shaping the world of on-demand boating.” It says it’s on track to send 2,000,000 people boating before the end of 2022.

I have a feeling Minnesota will account for a growing number of those rentals as we get into the summer of 2022 — one we are all very much looking forward to, for obvious reasons.

See you on the lake!

 

I Told You We Were in a Startup Boom

man standing in fireworks

Photo by Rakicevic Nenad via Pexels.

And it seems to be raging even more. Thank you, Great Resignation. You’ve started something big.

A new survey from Digital.com has found 43% of Americans plan to start a business in 2022. Whoa, that would be a big number! With findings like this, it certainly appears entrepreneurship is continuing to gain ground as a career choice. And this news comes on top of almost 5,000,000 new businesses having been launched between January and November of 2021, according to the Census Bureau. I call it a major (positive!) trend coming out of the pandemic.

[When I say I told you, you may recall I wrote about this topic some five months ago, but these latest numbers just drive the point home even more.]

Of the 1250 adults surveyed across the U.S., more than 2 of 5 – or four in ten, if you prefer – said they were planning to launch a new venture. What’s more, though some of these will surely be “side gigs,” 55% of these aspiring new business owners say they will leave their current jobs during the year. Yes, quitting is a hot thing. The number of job openings has gone ballistic nationwide. Time to feel even more sorry for your neighborhood job recruiter, I guess.

Taking the Leap

It seems the decision to go it alone is just not as daunting as it used to be. People are increasingly looking to be masters of their own fate, this data is showing us. They are emboldened. And you know what’s especially surprising in the results of this survey? One-third of these planned new startups in 2022 will be launched by first time entrepreneurs.

What kinds of businesses will these founders be pursuing? The survey said the most popular categories are these: “retail” (presumably including ecommerce), which came in at 14.6%. followed by “business & finance” at 10.91%, and “computer & IT” at 10.17%.

“One of the drivers for The Great Resignation is that people want to feel a sense of purpose,” said Dennis Consorte, Digital.com’s small business expert. “Business ownership can give you the flexibility to pursue what matters to you in a way you believe will be most meaningful and impactful.”

Having It Both Ways

What about launching a new business without quitting one’s current job? Yes, it happens – a lot, traditionally. (I did it early in my career.) And this new survey finds that practice will likely be continuing this year. In fact, I daresay it will become more common. Some 29% of survey respondents don’t plan to leave their current job during 2022.

What’s one big factor at play here? It’s this: 26% of the employed and self-employed individuals who responded to the survey currently work fully-remotely, and 40% more work both remotely and in-person. As the survey sponsor so astutely notes: “Remote work may allow for more flexibility to simultaneously continue current work while beginning a new endeavor.”

Thank you Covid, I guess? It’s making entrepreneurship easier! Especially when that new business can be run totally online. And the survey found 32% percent of these planned new businesses intend to operate that way.

Why Start a New Business?

The survey asked respondents who plan to launch a new venture what is motivating them. The chart below tells the story.

chart showing reasons to start a business

How to Finance It?

It’s easy saying you’ll start a business, but a little thing like money always comes up. Well, get this: 13% of the entrepreneurs who responded to this survey reported having raised more than $100k for their planned new venture! Twenty-nine percent said they’ve raised more than $50k, 57% raised more than $25k, and 87% raised at least some amount of money. Female entrepreneurs reported raising slightly less money than men. What about investing some of one’s own money? That matters, too – and 34% of these entrepreneurs said they’ve invested between $6k and $50k of their own cash.

“If you want to pursue a startup full-time, then it’s a good idea to have at least 6 months’ savings and to adopt a frugal lifestyle,” said Digital.com’s Consorte. “Raising money can often help you move faster, but it can come at a high cost. Start with friends and family, and opt for models where you don’t have to give up too much equity in the beginning. You’re going to need it if you get to a point where you want to bring in institutional investors.”

Great advice there! Read more about this eye-opening survey here and here.

A final note: As the survey sponsor says, “Whether or not these plans turn to action remains to be seen. But what’s clear is the exploding interest in entrepreneurship.”

Amen! I, for one, will plan to follow up with some yearend data. Meantime, as 2022 gets underway – likely a strong recovery year for workers as the pandemic eases — be sure to support your local entrepreneurs!

 

The Startup Surge to End All Surges?

Photo by Chuttersnap via Unsplash

As big trends go, I’d label this one blockbuster. Startup formation is on fire. It jumped 24% year-over-year in 2020 here in the U.S. Consider this from the Economic Innovation Group:

“A new Census Bureau dataset allows us to track early-stage entrepreneurial activity in almost real-time. For the duration of the pandemic, the Bureau’s Business Formation Statistics series has provided a detailed look at the number and character of new business applications on a weekly basis. Its findings suggest that the pandemic delivered a massive shock to American entrepreneurship that has seriously altered established trends in new business formation. Counter to expectations, 2020 shaped up to be the best year for business applications on record.” (Emphasis mine.)

bar chart of business applications

Then there’s this analysis from Oberlo:

“In 2010, the number of new business applications came in at 2.50 million. But as new business statistics show, in 2020, 4.35 million applications were submitted. That’s a whopping 74 percent more. It is also a 24.19 percent increase from 2019 and the biggest increase of the past decade by a mile.”

[Note: This post first appeared as an article on Grit Daily.]

I’ve experienced (and survived!) at least five technology/business cycles since going entrepreneurial and founding my consultancy more than three decades ago. And each of these cycles drove a startup surge that was considerable. (One, the dot-com cycle, saw a reversal for a few years after it peaked in 2000. So, surprisingly, did the startup surge driven by the advent of the smartphone era, but that was due to the financial crash of 2008.) I benefited greatly from every single one of those surges – getting to partner with so many wide-eyed entrepreneurs who were doing some crazy, innovative things and reaped some big rewards.

But this latest explosion of startups – call it the Covid Surge, the #WorkFromAnywhere Surge, the Digital Transformation Surge – whatever name you want to hang on it, this baby stands well above the rest.

line chart of new business applications

It’s More Than Just the ‘Cool Kids’

Today, it seems everybody wants to be a startup. Or at least work for a startup. Or start planning a startup. Or marry someone who has a startup. There’s even a term for those who wish they could do a startup, or who dream about doing it someday: “wannapreneur.”

Quite simply, these people just do not lust after a traditional career anymore. Seriously, when do you remember a time you felt this sorry for big corporations? They’re so unloved. (Wiping a tear.) Who in their right mind wants to work for one company for the rest of their career – or, hell, even five years anymore?

You, Mr. or Ms. Millennial, GenZer, GenXer, or even Boomer, have other ideas about how you want to live your life. In charge of your own destiny – that’s what. With a chance to build wealth well beyond what you could as an employee for the rest of your life.

Do I get an amen?

The Great Resignation: ‘Been Nice Knowing Ya, Boss’

What I say is driving this latest startup-surge-for-the-ages is not Covid, and not #WorkFromAnywhere, per se – rather, a by-product of it. It’s called freedom. People got a taste of freedom of when they want to work, and where. And, for many, how they do that work – without being under the nose of some boss.

Surely you’ve seen multiple stories by now about how so many people are quitting their jobs rather than go back to the office. LinkedIn alone will bury you in them. (Which raises the question, why do they write so much about all this quitting when it obviously affects their model? No question they’re quite dependent on big companies and their recruiting ads, and all the ladder-climbing robots who flog their corporate accomplishments on the platform. Makes you think LinkedIn is really going to need that freelance marketplace platform we keep hearing rumors about if it wants to keep growing anywhere near like it has.)

Granted, not everyone who’s quitting their job is doing a startup. Some are taking different jobs (duh). A slew of others would describe what they’re doing as simply “going freelance.” But many if not most of those are forming a legal entity to do that – the Company of Me – which shows how serious they are. It seems fair to assume the majority of these new entities are “solopreneurs” initially. That may or may not fit your definition of a startup – but, regardless, today we’re looking at huge company formation numbers overall, those that have already happened in 2020 and the similar numbers rolling in for 2021.

If you’re into economics, more great insights come from this article, including the following:

“There is a widespread perception that small businesses create the most jobs in the United States and other advanced economies. Research suggests that it is new businesses (emphasis mine), not small ones, that create these jobs (Haltiwanger et al. 2013). Studying the patterns in startup activity is hence an indicator of future employment growth.”

A Telling Finding

Amazingly, a survey just published by Digital.com found that one-third of workers who quit their jobs within the last six months started a business. That is just an unprecedented number in my experience!

graphic of workers starting businesses

More insights from the survey:

“Sixty-two percent of respondents say they are starting a business to be their own boss, and 60% say they are passionate about pursuing a business idea… Although many respondents say the pandemic influenced their decisions, they also cite several reasons for leaving the workforce. Forty-four percent of workers quit their jobs because they want better wages and benefits, 42% want to focus on their health, and 41% desire a more rewarding career. Sixty percent of new entrepreneurs learned about launching a startup business during the pandemic lockdown.”

Many startups begin life as personal service companies. Some of those actually go on to become product companies, whether hardware, software, even manufacturing businesses. A great many upstarts during the Covid era were founded as retail or ecommerce ventures. Online shopping went ballistic during the pandemic, and so many smart entrepreneurs took advantage of that.

It’s Easier Today

Historically speaking, entrepreneurs in the U.S. today have it pretty nice.

Consider all the factors that make their plight not nearly as difficult as it used to be:
• The low cost of starting a business
• The speed of creating a business entity (at least in most states; looking at you, California)
• Accessibility to capital, with a myriad of funding sources
• The low cost of capital these days
• And so many resources to learn how to do a startup, with organizations (both for-profit and nonprofit) practically tripping over each other to help entrepreneurs. These resources encompass many low-cost and even free services – coaching, classes, mentorship, accelerator programs, competitions with cash awards, and the list goes on.

Speaking of resources for starting a business, the outfit that sponsored the above survey, Digital.com, offers a wealth of links for new entrepreneurs.

So, What Are You Waiting For?

There’s never been a better time. But then, I’m biased.

 

Start a Business During a Recession? Yes, Take the Plunge!

photo of diving board

Photo: Markus Spiske, Unsplash.

Are we in a recession? Who knows? The definitions can be arcane. But we are in a massive government-initiated reaction to a public health crisis — that we do know. The talking-head economists will argue the meaning of the “R” word and when one actually begins (or ends). Blah, blah, blah — who cares? Some are calling what we’re in now just a “hibernation.”

The point I want to make is that, regardless of what we call a downturn in the economy, it can actually be the very best of times to start a business. I know something about this topic. I started my business during a recession — a year in which U.S. unemployment jumped faster than at any other time (well, until 2008-09). Did that scare me? Hell no! Because I knew I had something — customers weren’t getting what they needed from the established incumbents. And I survived three other recessions because I adjusted and simplified — reinvented myself and my business to meet the new realities.

So, buck up, people! Think of a recession as a challenge. The opening of a new door.

Why can starting a business during a recession be the right time? I’m hardly the only one who knows these truths. I loved how Australian startup founder Alec Lynch framed it when he wrote in Forbes after the last major recession (the 2008 financial meltdown), “10 Reasons The Best Time To Start A Business Is During A Downturn.” Here’s his list:

• People want innovation

• People want to save money

• Incumbents are vulnerable

• Good people are looking for work

• Things are cheaper

• Lower interest rates means cheaper credit

• You will have fewer competitors

• Smart investors want to invest

• Downturns give startups negotiating power

• You’ll build a lean startup with good habits

Some further perspectives on reasons why now is the best time to launch a business come from a guy named Brad Sugars, who penned a great piece in Entrepreneur magazine post-2008 recession, “Top 10 Reasons to Start a Business in a Recession.” One excerpt: “Just go back and look at the economic slowdowns throughout history. Most recessions in the post-World War II era last an average of 10 months, followed by growth cycles that last an average of 50 months. What this means for the startup is there’s no better time than right now to get going and start pursuing your business dreams — in anticipation of the next period of growth.”

You won’t find his list much different than Alec’s, but he does offer up one other key point: “You can get good PR by showing you are going against the trend. The media loves aberrations, and if you are optimistic by expanding or getting into business now, you would be in that category. That means you can generate some great PR by demonstrating your ‘alternative’ view of the market.”

And you have to love how he wraps up his piece: “There’s no better time to start than the present, especially if people around you are more comfortable with their own list of reasons why they shouldn’t start pursuing their own business dreams right now. It only means you’ll be facing a lot less competition.” Bingo!

Edward D. Hess, a business professor at the University of Virginia, coauthored a book called, “So, You Want to Start a Business? 8 Steps to Take Before Making the Leap.” Among his key points is having a clear understanding of your value proposition. “You need to decide why someone is going to buy what you have to sell. You must have a message (my emphasis) to customers about why you’ll be better, faster, or cheaper than the competition.” And to develop that, you need to talk to them directly and get to intimately know their needs.

Yes, it all comes down to this: will people pay you money for what you’re offering, and why? And remember, there’s a big difference between a business idea and a profitable business idea. The good news is there are tons of resources out there to help you start and run a new business. Read, think, plan, talk (a lot)… and build confidence.

Then dive in!

—————-

UPDATE 6/9/20: I told you to start your business 🙂 … It’s not too late!

“U.S. had shortest recession in history: Economist Mark Zandi” | Fox Business Video

 

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