Graeme Thickins on Tech

Reflections & analysis about innovation, technology, startups, investing, healthcare, and more .... with a focus on Minnesota, Land of 10,000 Lakes. Blogging continuously since 2005.

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I Told You We Were in a Startup Boom

man standing in fireworks

Photo by Rakicevic Nenad via Pexels.

And it seems to be raging even more. Thank you, Great Resignation. You’ve started something big.

A new survey from Digital.com has found 43% of Americans plan to start a business in 2022. Whoa, that would be a big number! With findings like this, it certainly appears entrepreneurship is continuing to gain ground as a career choice. And this news comes on top of almost 5,000,000 new businesses having been launched between January and November of 2021, according to the Census Bureau. I call it a major (positive!) trend coming out of the pandemic.

[When I say I told you, you may recall I wrote about this topic some five months ago, but these latest numbers just drive the point home even more.]

Of the 1250 adults surveyed across the U.S., more than 2 of 5 – or four in ten, if you prefer – said they were planning to launch a new venture. What’s more, though some of these will surely be “side gigs,” 55% of these aspiring new business owners say they will leave their current jobs during the year. Yes, quitting is a hot thing. The number of job openings has gone ballistic nationwide. Time to feel even more sorry for your neighborhood job recruiter, I guess.

Taking the Leap

It seems the decision to go it alone is just not as daunting as it used to be. People are increasingly looking to be masters of their own fate, this data is showing us. They are emboldened. And you know what’s especially surprising in the results of this survey? One-third of these planned new startups in 2022 will be launched by first time entrepreneurs.

What kinds of businesses will these founders be pursuing? The survey said the most popular categories are these: “retail” (presumably including ecommerce), which came in at 14.6%. followed by “business & finance” at 10.91%, and “computer & IT” at 10.17%.

“One of the drivers for The Great Resignation is that people want to feel a sense of purpose,” said Dennis Consorte, Digital.com’s small business expert. “Business ownership can give you the flexibility to pursue what matters to you in a way you believe will be most meaningful and impactful.”

Having It Both Ways

What about launching a new business without quitting one’s current job? Yes, it happens – a lot, traditionally. (I did it early in my career.) And this new survey finds that practice will likely be continuing this year. In fact, I daresay it will become more common. Some 29% of survey respondents don’t plan to leave their current job during 2022.

What’s one big factor at play here? It’s this: 26% of the employed and self-employed individuals who responded to the survey currently work fully-remotely, and 40% more work both remotely and in-person. As the survey sponsor so astutely notes: “Remote work may allow for more flexibility to simultaneously continue current work while beginning a new endeavor.”

Thank you Covid, I guess? It’s making entrepreneurship easier! Especially when that new business can be run totally online. And the survey found 32% percent of these planned new businesses intend to operate that way.

Why Start a New Business?

The survey asked respondents who plan to launch a new venture what is motivating them. The chart below tells the story.

chart showing reasons to start a business

How to Finance It?

It’s easy saying you’ll start a business, but a little thing like money always comes up. Well, get this: 13% of the entrepreneurs who responded to this survey reported having raised more than $100k for their planned new venture! Twenty-nine percent said they’ve raised more than $50k, 57% raised more than $25k, and 87% raised at least some amount of money. Female entrepreneurs reported raising slightly less money than men. What about investing some of one’s own money? That matters, too – and 34% of these entrepreneurs said they’ve invested between $6k and $50k of their own cash.

“If you want to pursue a startup full-time, then it’s a good idea to have at least 6 months’ savings and to adopt a frugal lifestyle,” said Digital.com’s Consorte. “Raising money can often help you move faster, but it can come at a high cost. Start with friends and family, and opt for models where you don’t have to give up too much equity in the beginning. You’re going to need it if you get to a point where you want to bring in institutional investors.”

Great advice there! Read more about this eye-opening survey here and here.

A final note: As the survey sponsor says, “Whether or not these plans turn to action remains to be seen. But what’s clear is the exploding interest in entrepreneurship.”

Amen! I, for one, will plan to follow up with some yearend data. Meantime, as 2022 gets underway – likely a strong recovery year for workers as the pandemic eases — be sure to support your local entrepreneurs!

 

The Startup Surge to End All Surges?

Photo by Chuttersnap via Unsplash

As big trends go, I’d label this one blockbuster. Startup formation is on fire. It jumped 24% year-over-year in 2020 here in the U.S. Consider this from the Economic Innovation Group:

“A new Census Bureau dataset allows us to track early-stage entrepreneurial activity in almost real-time. For the duration of the pandemic, the Bureau’s Business Formation Statistics series has provided a detailed look at the number and character of new business applications on a weekly basis. Its findings suggest that the pandemic delivered a massive shock to American entrepreneurship that has seriously altered established trends in new business formation. Counter to expectations, 2020 shaped up to be the best year for business applications on record.” (Emphasis mine.)

bar chart of business applications

Then there’s this analysis from Oberlo:

“In 2010, the number of new business applications came in at 2.50 million. But as new business statistics show, in 2020, 4.35 million applications were submitted. That’s a whopping 74 percent more. It is also a 24.19 percent increase from 2019 and the biggest increase of the past decade by a mile.”

[Note: This post first appeared as an article on Grit Daily.]

I’ve experienced (and survived!) at least five technology/business cycles since going entrepreneurial and founding my consultancy more than three decades ago. And each of these cycles drove a startup surge that was considerable. (One, the dot-com cycle, saw a reversal for a few years after it peaked in 2000. So, surprisingly, did the startup surge driven by the advent of the smartphone era, but that was due to the financial crash of 2008.) I benefited greatly from every single one of those surges – getting to partner with so many wide-eyed entrepreneurs who were doing some crazy, innovative things and reaped some big rewards.

But this latest explosion of startups – call it the Covid Surge, the #WorkFromAnywhere Surge, the Digital Transformation Surge – whatever name you want to hang on it, this baby stands well above the rest.

line chart of new business applications

It’s More Than Just the ‘Cool Kids’

Today, it seems everybody wants to be a startup. Or at least work for a startup. Or start planning a startup. Or marry someone who has a startup. There’s even a term for those who wish they could do a startup, or who dream about doing it someday: “wannapreneur.”

Quite simply, these people just do not lust after a traditional career anymore. Seriously, when do you remember a time you felt this sorry for big corporations? They’re so unloved. (Wiping a tear.) Who in their right mind wants to work for one company for the rest of their career – or, hell, even five years anymore?

You, Mr. or Ms. Millennial, GenZer, GenXer, or even Boomer, have other ideas about how you want to live your life. In charge of your own destiny – that’s what. With a chance to build wealth well beyond what you could as an employee for the rest of your life.

Do I get an amen?

The Great Resignation: ‘Been Nice Knowing Ya, Boss’

What I say is driving this latest startup-surge-for-the-ages is not Covid, and not #WorkFromAnywhere, per se – rather, a by-product of it. It’s called freedom. People got a taste of freedom of when they want to work, and where. And, for many, how they do that work – without being under the nose of some boss.

Surely you’ve seen multiple stories by now about how so many people are quitting their jobs rather than go back to the office. LinkedIn alone will bury you in them. (Which raises the question, why do they write so much about all this quitting when it obviously affects their model? No question they’re quite dependent on big companies and their recruiting ads, and all the ladder-climbing robots who flog their corporate accomplishments on the platform. Makes you think LinkedIn is really going to need that freelance marketplace platform we keep hearing rumors about if it wants to keep growing anywhere near like it has.)

Granted, not everyone who’s quitting their job is doing a startup. Some are taking different jobs (duh). A slew of others would describe what they’re doing as simply “going freelance.” But many if not most of those are forming a legal entity to do that – the Company of Me – which shows how serious they are. It seems fair to assume the majority of these new entities are “solopreneurs” initially. That may or may not fit your definition of a startup – but, regardless, today we’re looking at huge company formation numbers overall, those that have already happened in 2020 and the similar numbers rolling in for 2021.

If you’re into economics, more great insights come from this article, including the following:

“There is a widespread perception that small businesses create the most jobs in the United States and other advanced economies. Research suggests that it is new businesses (emphasis mine), not small ones, that create these jobs (Haltiwanger et al. 2013). Studying the patterns in startup activity is hence an indicator of future employment growth.”

A Telling Finding

Amazingly, a survey just published by Digital.com found that one-third of workers who quit their jobs within the last six months started a business. That is just an unprecedented number in my experience!

graphic of workers starting businesses

More insights from the survey:

“Sixty-two percent of respondents say they are starting a business to be their own boss, and 60% say they are passionate about pursuing a business idea… Although many respondents say the pandemic influenced their decisions, they also cite several reasons for leaving the workforce. Forty-four percent of workers quit their jobs because they want better wages and benefits, 42% want to focus on their health, and 41% desire a more rewarding career. Sixty percent of new entrepreneurs learned about launching a startup business during the pandemic lockdown.”

Many startups begin life as personal service companies. Some of those actually go on to become product companies, whether hardware, software, even manufacturing businesses. A great many upstarts during the Covid era were founded as retail or ecommerce ventures. Online shopping went ballistic during the pandemic, and so many smart entrepreneurs took advantage of that.

It’s Easier Today

Historically speaking, entrepreneurs in the U.S. today have it pretty nice.

Consider all the factors that make their plight not nearly as difficult as it used to be:
• The low cost of starting a business
• The speed of creating a business entity (at least in most states; looking at you, California)
• Accessibility to capital, with a myriad of funding sources
• The low cost of capital these days
• And so many resources to learn how to do a startup, with organizations (both for-profit and nonprofit) practically tripping over each other to help entrepreneurs. These resources encompass many low-cost and even free services – coaching, classes, mentorship, accelerator programs, competitions with cash awards, and the list goes on.

Speaking of resources for starting a business, the outfit that sponsored the above survey, Digital.com, offers a wealth of links for new entrepreneurs.

So, What Are You Waiting For?

There’s never been a better time. But then, I’m biased.

 

Nice Followup to My Post About Predictions for the New Year…

I wrote a post a couple weeks ago called “Ten Predictions for Optimists in 2021.” Not to get too serious about it, because I wrote the post to bring some, shall we say, lightheartedness, to the current state of affairs. But I couldn’t help but take some pride in my prediction abilities when, early this Saturday morning, I read a very informative Barron’s Roundtable discussion by some really smart people. It was entitled in part, “Welcome to the Roaring ’20s” (subscription required, though I was able to access the whole piece in my Apple News app).

Barron's Roundtable graphic

One of the participants in this roundtable of market watchers and investment gurus was a guy named Henry Ellenbogen, Chief Investment Officer at Durable Capital Partners. He’s in the center, bottom row, above. (One of his firm’s claims to fame is that it was an early investor in DoorDash, which IPOed in late 2020 and is up substantially. And they just invested in another big round for the Brit counterpart, Deliveroo.) Here are some of Henry’s insights from the roundtable:

One of the most fundamental trends that will come out of 2020 is that America will spread out. The first suburbanization trend started in 1810. I would argue that we are now in the fifth phase, and it is going to be as powerful, if not more so, than the first four. Knowledge workers are going to be able to separate economic opportunity from where they live. A lot of tech companies now talk about being time-zone companies as opposed to geographically based. Working from home, even for people who have to go to the office two or three days a week, will allow people to move to the suburbs and more distant places, lowering their cost of living and enhancing their quality of life. The services that accompany these workers are also going to spread out. The productivity gains will be significant. Before Covid, 10% of Americans spent two hours a day commuting to work, and 40% spent an hour. You’re going to return this time to people in the form of enhance productivity.

But what about tech companies lowering compensation levels for people who move from high population centers? Will that cause some people to rethink such moves?

If people can really work remotely, competition in the marketplace will take care of compensation discrepancies. If you want to have the best employees and they can live where they want, you are going to have to pay them based on a national wage.

What do you expect from the economy in 2021? (a question from Lauren Rublin, Barron’s Senior Managing Editor)

There is an underlying assumption that we get decoupled from Covid by the vaccines. If that happens, there is going to be a tremendous pent-up desire for experiences and consumption. Starting this summer, we might have six months of New Year’s Eve parties.

There you go, my optimist friends. Start getting the champagne ready!

 

Who Made the List of ‘The 120 Top People in Minnesota Tech on Twitter’?

Well, for one, me! A Google Alert showed up the other day on my name. It was for a post published on Webbiquity, the blog of a fellow named Tom Pick here in the Twin Cities. Gee, thanks, Tom! My profile pic was even featured in his graphic… the only one shot on a beach, I might add — haha! (By the way, the list is alphabetical, so I’m way down toward the end of the list.)

some of the people of the 'Top 120' list

I’ve known Tom for some years, being in the same general business (marketing). He’s an accomplished B2B marketing consultant and strategist. And he’s been blogging about as long as I have — maybe longer. I officially started writing a blog (meaning on an actual blogging platform) in 2005.  I’m now up to 690 posts! But Tom seems much more serious about his blog. He even has ads! So, maybe he’s making some money from it.

Tom was also early to jump on Twitter, probably about the time I did — in 2007. I resisted starting to tweet in 2006, after the much-hyped launch of Twitter at SXSW in March of 2006. But, several months later, I couldn’t resist “micro-blogging” any longer, so I gave in to the temptation in early 2007. Fast forward, I’m now well beyond 35,000 tweets — and I just can’t stop, haha!  (By the way, have you noticed that Twitter recently dropped that stat on all its user profiles? Why?? That’s too bad.)

Anyway, Tom did an admirable job — I’m sure that compiling the list was a lot of work. (And I thanked him.) I thought it was kinda strange that several people on the list had only 2 or 3 tweets in the last 90+ days… are you kidding? But not to judge here — hey, maybe those tweets were really, REALLY good ones? But I think about 10 or more of us were  listed as having 100+ tweets in the past 90 days. And I know for me it would have been more like 200. Just sayin’! Of course, sharing content of value is what I think Twitter his all about, and that’s really all I try to do.

Tom explains his methodology in his blog post (linked above). He had to walk a fine line and not make anyone mad — including some people he felt a need to mention, even though they aren’t very active on Twitter(??).  Maybe they like Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn  better? Or even Pinterest? Or they’re dancing on TikTok. Each to his own, I guess.

I will say that a lot of us active Twitter users on Tom’s list are very active on LinkedIn as well. In my case, I joined in August 2003 when there were only 18,000 of us there. Now, there are more than 700 million!

Another good thing Tom did in compiling his Twitter list: he left out those who are tweeting a lot about politics. Good call, Tom!

I Wrote Another Article for Grit Daily… This Time on Startup Grit

Grit Daily is a very cool media site based in NYC. It was founded by an amazing guy named Jordan French (seriously, read that bio). And he has a bunch of other great team members around him. (You should subscribe — support independent journalism you won’t find anywhere else!)

I was introduced to Jordan by an another amazing guy, who’s based right here in the Twin Cities: William Harris. He connected me with Jordan right before I headed off to SXSW in March 2019. Jordan was kind enough to accept me as a contributor, and I wrote my first piece for Grit Daily on my experience at that crazy event: “Partying at SXSW for Your Health.” I wrote another piece in the ensuring months that included one of my most favorite topics, Apple: “Amex, Apple vie for top spot in heated ‘metal card’ wars”... about my weird love affair with a couple of new credit cards.

Fast forward to the beginning of 2021 — what we all hope will be a much better year — I just published another article on Grit Daily. This one is called, “10 New Year’s Resolutions If You Think You Have a Startup In You.” It aims to help anyone who’s thinking they’re ready to quit their day job and go off and build something big. Hope you like it. Tell me if you do!

 

 

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