Reflections & analysis about innovation, technology, startups, investing, healthcare, and more .... with a focus on Minnesota, Land of 10,000 Lakes. Blogging continuously since 2005.

Category: Venture Capital/M&A/Angels (Page 46 of 54)

Flyspy: ‘Consumers Take Charge’

That’s how conference producer and host Phil Wolf, CEO of PhocusWright, described this next session at the the Travel 2.0 conference. He said it was one of the sessions he was most looking forward to, and also said it could be called “reverse yield management,” which I found fascinating. No doubt about it, Web 2.0 and Travel 2.0 fans, airfare search has entered a whole new phase.

One of the main reasons I trekked to Hollywood this week to cover the conference was to hear Minneapolis-based Flyspy do its first sneak-peak pitch — a limited coming-out, as it were, within its chosen vertical. Whatisflyspyslide Robert Metcalf, the founder and visionary behind chart-based Flyspy, was invited a few weeks ago by the event’s producers to introduce his service at this high-profile annual gathering of online and traditional travel execs. He told me he had to think about it for a while, but ultimately decided, even though it’s still early (the site isn’t quite in full beta release yet), that it was just too tempting an opportunity to miss — to get the kind of reaction he could get here.

Robert Metcalf is a very experienced software architect and developer of complex web sites. [He’s shown on the right in the onstage photo.] He describes Flyspy, which he’s been planning and developing very quietly for almost three years now, as the hardest problem he’s ever tackled. “The way airfare data works, it’s just a very, very complex system. When I got into it, I couldn’t believe it.” But now he feels all the hard work is paying off. He describes Flyspy as an “intelligent, at-a-glance airfare search engine.” [See sample Flyspy chart, which illustrates the frequent peaks and valleys of airline pricing, and just how volatile certain routes can be.] He said his main benefit is a “dramatic reduction in fare search time” because of his unique charting approach. The site provides actual, real-time flight data, not historical or predictive data as two other well-funded startups do (and to whom he says he’s often erroneously compared). That would be FareCompare and Farecast, respectively — firms that were also invited to speak in this session (though mysteriously the latter didn’t show). Another key difference I learned with these two sites compared to Flyspy: you can’t actually book a ticket at either.

Though in limited alpha mode, Flyspy has already been discovered and reported on this year by TechCrunch, Wired.com, and Fast Company, and others, and I’ve written about it here previously myself. “It just seems to resonate with people,” says Robert. You can find links to previous coverage at Flypsy’s “About” page.

Flyspyslide1

Robert says that Flyspy’s approach provides “market clarity and market transparency,” resulting in “high customer confidence.” What he’s learned from a significant amount of feedback he’s already received from his site’s users is that searching and booking on Flyspy eliminates buyer’s remorse. “We allow the consumer to really understand the market for trips they’re planning and their various options. And that results in a positive transaction instead of a negative one.” In other words, it takes away that nagging, uncertain feeling we’ve all had: “If only I’d had more time to search, I know I could’ve found a better fare.” Time is the valuable commodity today, and Flyspy addresses that consumer need head-on, he says.

Flyspyslide2

Flyspy’s Value Proposition
In his presentation, Metcalf said decision-making time is much faster and search much simpler with Flyspy than with all the other sites — whether you’re comparing to the old-line “Travel 1.0” sites (often called The Big Three), the airline sites themselves, or the newer so-called Travel 1.5 “meta search” sites. I guess that makes Flyspy a genuine Travel 2.0-era search site. Metcalf said Flyspy requires only one search, not many, to get the full picture — which is a major time differential. The number of data points on one of his charts would require 240 searches elsewhere. And Flyspy has the “most Google-like interface” of all the airfare search sites, he says. It’s really dead simple for the consumer.

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Partners Lining Up Before Launch
Toward the end of his talk, Metcalf took the opportunity to announce that Flyspy has several partnerships in place, even before the company officially launches. Well, he didn’t actually name who they are — just hinted broadly. These strategic relationships include:

1) A leading business magazine, where Flyspy will be a regular feature in the travel section of their web site
2) A frequent flyer web site with 15 million page views/month
3) A leading blog platform with 50,000 blogs and 18 million visitors/month
4) A leading online CRM solution with 500,000 users, where Flyspy will be the sole travel partner
5) A major daily newspaper (circulation 600,000) wherein Flyspy charts will be featured weekly
6) An industry publication with a monthly circulation of 80,000

After this session, I grabbed a shot of airline pricing transparency expert Nelson Granados (left) with Robert Metcalf. Nelson is an associate professor at Pepperdine University, where Flyspy is a case study this semester in two of his MBA classes. He previously held a similar position at the Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota, and has also worked for Northwest Airlines.

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In my interview with Robert Metcalf at lunch following the session, I learned he was approached at the conference by several firms that are interested in licensing Flyspy’s data, and also by at least one major, brand-name site that would like to feature Flyspy as its exclusive airfare search partner. “I’m very glad I came to the event,” he said. “I met a lot of great contacts and intend to follow up.”

Watch for another post soon recapping this high-energy conference. As I learned here, travel is the world’s largest industry. But the latest iteration of the Internet seems to be breathing new fire into it…

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Travel 2.0 – I’m Breathless!

Regarding the conference I’ll be blogging from next weekPhocuswrightconf How can one not be enthusiastic after reading this update I received a few days ago from the event producers?

(beginning of excerpt)

Well, it’s just one week to show time in Hollywood, California!

At PhoCusWright, we are passionate about creating a unique conference in an industry mired in a “sea of same.” By producing a conference that’s changing conferences, we are fighting commoditization just like you and delivering a differentiated product along the way. Thank you for joining us in this quest to challenge the status quo.

Next week, The PhoCusWright Executive Conference will be the most notable yet in the event’s illustrious 13-year history for several reasons: record attendance, an unrivaled speaker roster that spans all aspects of our industry’s value chain; highly motivated and demanding attendees; and a tested, pioneering conference format that unveils what’s on prominent travel, tourism and hospitality executives’ minds, and a new “2.0 conference experience.” You’ll find yourself immersed in the strategic center of the world’s largest industry — surrounded by the heads of major suppliers, distributors and influencers.

This business trip is your key to the unvarnished truth about the vetted, the vexed and the victorious as “Travel 2.0 Confronts the Establishment.”

Overview and About PhoCusWright
For over a decade, PhoCusWright events have provided a more valuable experience because our analysts run the show. We leverage our travel industry expertise and interviewing skills to uncover truths, probe for clarity and reject sales pitches. Our clients (attendees, sponsors, exhibitors, speakers) know that we respect their time by providing superior production value, professional event operations, excellent meals and social networking opportunities with unique access to peers and industry leadership. The PhoCusWright Executive Conference on November 13-15 will be three special days dedicated to fresh ideas, expansive thinking, incredible energy and uncommon community.

PhoCusWright Inc. is an independent travel, tourism and hospitality research firm specializing in consumer, business and competitive intelligence. The company produces consumer, market and industry research, provides strategic consulting services and stages a series of high-profile conferences in the U.S. and Europe.

Conference Program and Agenda
At last year’s Executive Conference, we witnessed Travel 1.0’s swan song. Since then, the Travel 2.0 floodgates have opened with empowered consumers taking charge. It’s a positive, advancing force holding great promise for our industry.

Travel 2.0 – our industry’s collective application of Web 2.0 – embodies how companies can differentiate themselves in a vast, dynamic travel distribution marketplace. It challenges status-quo travel planning behavior. Travelers are now keen to take control and find/create the perfect trip, not just the cheapest trip.

The conference theme is huge: “Travel 2.0 Confronts the Establishment.” Content and conversation center on a unique collection of leadership and topics. The non-stop program is very busy by design and the format exposes attendees to a rare experience. Pithy and provocative commentary triumph.

PhoCusWright attendees (that’s you!) enjoy a reputation for asking savvy, deep-digging questions and not letting go without real answers. Don’t be shy! Our analyst team, armed with a cache of questions, draws the best out of everyone! With a relentless quest for meaningful debate and a probing perseverance for clear answers, together we will expose the very issues that have a vise-like grip on senior executives’ minds.

Be prepared for the unexpected!

New This Year
New this year, attendees are empowered to control their own conference destiny. Just as Travel 2.0 enables consumers to create their perfect trip, The PhoCusWright Executive Conference enables attendees to customize their perfect conference experience. For example, the Attendee Empowerment Heat Map (available at www.phocuswright.com/conferences/heatmap) illustrates your ability to control how much content vs. work you choose to focus on at any time and anywhere. Whether you soak up content in the theater, multitask in the cafe with headsets or camp out in the satellite theater, not only will you learn about Travel 2.0, you will live it!

Also new this year: real-time electronic question board, attendee headsets to listen anywhere, satellite theatre, 80 – person café, sponsored workshops, “VC Talk”, myphocuswright.com and more.

Back by popular demand: WiFi, live blog, open exhibition showcase, I-mag projection that beams several different types of screens at different locations. Whoever is speaking — pundit on stage or attendee in row 38 — appears live on the screens, including subtitles with name and affiliation.

Dream Demographics
Wonder who you will be seated next to? Your strategic partner. Your big investor. Your hottest prospect. Your next key hire. Your awaited acquirer. Your biggest competitor. You’re not dreaming.

It’s very much prime time for our marketplace. We are proud to showcase industry heavyweights from the traditional as well as the online sector; from corporate, meeting and leisure camps; from the supply as well as the distribution side; from discount to luxury; from media and transaction vantages; from North America to Asia; and from Wall Street’s to Main Street’s perspective. We understand the people you interact with matter the most so we have lured an incomparable target audience you can’t miss.

In this fertile environment, millions of dollars of deals get done… and then some. Relationships are cemented. Leads are qualified. Paths are paved. Hires are secured. By joining your peers from around the world, you will shape your point-of-view, hone your strategy, fill your sales pipeline and cultivate business like never before.

The Bottom Line
That’s why we’re all congregating next week at The PhoCusWright Executive Conference to confront what’s next and profit from a keener understanding. Unrivaled insight, healthy debate, critical corroboration, peer talkback, audience grilling, credible forecasts, powerful thinking… even a better night’s sleep.

The PhoCusWright Executive Conference will be “a needle-moving” three days where clarity reigns supreme and buzz is palpable. You are among an unparalleled group: savvy, connected, demanding and poised to do business. Thank you for coming. We look forward to seeing you and to your participation.

Be ready to stand up and speak out. Travel 2.0 is confronting the establishment, and so will you!

(end of excerpt)

As I said, breathless! I’m getting pumped about this thing. And I haven’t even followed the online travel industry all that much to date….Flyspylogo_2except via my own personal experiences as an avid user of these services for my frequent personal and business travel. I’m especially looking forward to the talk to be given by Rob Metcalf, founder of Minneapolis-based Flyspy.

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Angel Investing Is On the Move

Angel_investor2 Angel investors are banding into networks at an increasing rate, especially in the Upper Midwest, and they’re getting a lot more savvy, I learned at a conference sponsored by RAIN Source Capital, September 28-29, in Mankato, MN. Separately, I also read recently that the number of angel-funded deals was up 15% in the first half of 2006.

The RAIN organization, based in the Twin Cities, has already formed 17 networks in several cities and key regional centers in Minnesota, Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana. And it plans 10 more in the next year, expanding into additional states that include the Pacific Northwest. To say I was impressed by their “network of networks” model and how far it’s come in a short amount of time would be an understatement. Rainmakersconf They appear to be out in front of a trend, meeting the market need to fill the infamous “gap” between very early-stage funding and traditional VC funding. It’s a gap many entrepreneurs have been more than frustrated with in recent years as they attempt to attract capital to get their ventures off the ground. And it’s the angels — increasingly smart bands of these angels — that are stepping up to fill that gap.

Key Things I Learned at This Event
• A recurring topic was that angels frequently see entrepreneurs who lack the ability to be coached. That was a word heard at the conference early and often. But, with their experience founding and running successful businesses, it’s not hard to understand that most angels want to invest in people who want and can take advice — that is, who realize they need more than money.

• In the U.S., there are currently about 200,000 angels, but only about 10% of them are organized into any group. That figure was courtesy of speaker Bill Payne, Entrepreneur-in-Residence at the Kauffman Foundation (pictured here). Billpayne

• However, the number of angel groups is expanding, he said, and most of the approximately 250 that now exist in the country are so-called networks, which study deals together and make investments as a group. Less than 20% of that number, though, currently pools capital in advance and votes. Thus, Payne said, the RAIN organization, though it may be growing rapidly, has a ways to go yet before it can be considered “mainsteam.” There are lots of models out there, most based on what works in a local community, he said.

• The average angel deal, according to Payne, takes about five years until exit, and has about a 25% IRR (internal rate of return), which means a 3X return by the end of that five years. And most successful angels split their investing about 50-50 between early-stage and late-stage deals. “But,” he said, “it’s a bumpy, uneven road” to reach milestones. “And entrepreneurs lie, so we have to do multiple rounds.” He said that, of his 31 angel investments over the years, two deals took as long as 15 years to exit. Generally speaking, he said “You have to realize you’re in a decade-long activity.”

• How involved do angels get in their investments? “Most get very engaged,” said Payne, “but not necessarily in every portfolio company — they can’t possibly be. The beauty of a network is that someone from the group can ensure that all investments are being monitored properly.”

• What about valuation? Pre-money valuation is critical, said Payne, and he likes deals in the range of $1-3 million. His basic formula for ROI on an angel deal is quite simple: divide projected terminal value in year 5 by the post-money valuation (assuming no dilution). “But with an average overfall ROI of only 10-15%, you need a large portfolio to ensure success, and a 10-year commitment.”

• Diversification is the key, says Steve Mercil, CEO of RAIN Source Capital. “No one person can have enough expertise. The value of the network is what this is all about. It’s the ‘penguin concept’ — you jump in with others.”

• Can entrepreneurs be humble? “They have blind spots,” said Gene McGowan, a member of Prairie Winds Capital LLC angel network in Sioux Falls, SD, and a panelist in one of the sessions. “And we need to help them fill those. If they’re not open to a partnership relationship, that’s not good. They must be humble enough — it’s the smartest thing they can do, accept help in filling those blind spots.”

• What’s the most important thing an angel can do after he invests? “Know the controller!” said McGowan. Watch the financial statements, added another panelist, and be especially concerned if key people are leaving.

• What’s perhaps the second most important? “Dry powder,” said Jerry Okerman, former head of the 3M Company’s venture capital program, referring to follow-on investments. “You’ll need at least 50% more at the ready, maybe 100%.”

• What’s the one constant you can plan on? “Change,” said Cathy Connett, “and it’s always related to the people.” So, she said, angels and angel networks must always be ready to deal with that, and we heard again a reference to the “coachability” of the founder. Cathy has been an angel investor since 1993 and in now a member of one of the RAIN networks in the Twin Cities, the Sophia Angel Fund.

Billion-Dollar Buyouts of Upper Midwest Startups
In his opening-evening keynote at this event, Rich Karlgaard spoke of his favorite story about “small town America” tech startups in our region — that being Doug Burgum’s Great Plain Software in Fargo, ND, which Microsoft acquired in late 2000 for $1.1 billion.

But in the closing keynote after lunch the following day, we got to hear the story of yet another $1.1B acquisition: Midwest Wireless of Mankato, MN, which is being acquired by Alltel. Announced originally in November 2005, we learned the deal was actually expected to close just a few days after the event. The guy telling this amazing growth story was Dennis Miller himself (pictured here), the CEO and founder of Midwest Wireless (who plans to stay on with Alltel once the deal is final). Dennismilleralltel Miller said that Midwest Wireless began in 1990 with a handful of employees and a single tower in New Ulm, MN [one of my favorite towns, where the oldest brewery in the state, Schell’s Beer, still flourishes]. By the end of the ’90s, the company had 4700 towers. It made its first acquisition in 1996, a wireless company in Rochester, MN. By the year 2000, it had 234 employees and 110,000 customers and made another acquisition — this one for $165M — which expanded the company’s service area into Iowa and Western Wisconsin. By 2003, Midwest Wireless made a big bet: it switched over to CDMA technology, which Miller implied was a big challenge for the fledgling firm, but one they survived. By the end of 2003, his firm had grown to 507 employees and 356,000 customers, revenues had expanded to $179M, and it had made a second Iowa acquisition by the end of that year. Fast forward to the end of 2005, when the company had reached 636 employees and 440,000 customers, and $264M in revenues.

“What was our biggest challenge?” CEO Miller rhetorically asked. Not surprisingly, he said that was “dealing with rapid growth.” But another question he said he’s been asked more often recently is this: “Why exit?” Miller explained: “We could see the ‘Big Four’ were rapidly expanding their market share, and we could see that was at the expense of the smaller players. The ‘everybody else’ category was declining rapidly.”

In 2005, said Miller, “Things started to heat up.” Western Wireless, based in Seattle, was acquired by Alltel. Consolidation in rural wireless markets was underway, he said. So Miller and his management team started interviewing investment bankers. In July, the firm hired Bear Stearns and, by August or September, the auction process had begun. But it didn’t take long for the process to come to head: on November 19, 2005, Alltel announced its intent to acquire Midwest Wireless for just shy of $1.1 billion.

In retrospect, here are some of the impressive metrics Miller cited for Midwest Wireless: (1) His company’s shares saw an increase over this time period of 300%, and (2) the firm achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.5%.

What key decisions could he look back on? an audience member asked. “We didn’t sell out in the crazy late ’90s,” said Miller. “We couldn’t see how those shareholders could win. If it’s too good to be true, then it probably is.”

Next question: How did your job change from 10 employees to 600+? “You learn what you do well, and you hire people to do the rest,” he said. “And then you let them do it!” Miller then offered up a great metaphor: “You give them rope, and — when you do that — you’ll find they more often tie bows than nooses.”

Final question from the angel audience: Why did you join the RAIN fund? [Miller has been a member of one of the networks, based in his hometown of Mankato, MN, for some time.] “It’s a great idea, and wonderful people. We’re all a part of a regional ecosystem,” he said. “If we can pool resources, we all win.”

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Venerable VC Firm Says Model Is Dead

The biggest news over the weekend for me, besides the developing story about the Google-YouTube deal (now looking like it wasn’t just a rumor!), was definitely this one in Saturday’s New York Times: A Kink in Venture Capital’s Gold Chain. Goldeneggbroken Turns out Sevin Rosen, with a 30-year history in the venture capital business, is throwing in the towel on its latest fund and declaring the VC model is broken.

Fred Wilson — who writes the blog “A VC” — provided some further perspective on this news in his post on Saturday: Is The ‘Traditional Venture Capital Model’ Broken?.

All of this is actually a great preamble to my next post, which is about how another breed of early-stage investing is lately coming into its own: angel networks. I’ve been trying to get this one written and now it’s almost done — and the timing as relates the above news turns out to be propitious. Stand by….

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Give YouTube a Break!

Warner Music did. As this Newsweek story describes, personal relationships really do make a difference in this business. It’s just a bootstrapped startup trying to find its way — they deserve some slack! Youtubenewsweek The sleezy entertainment industry goons need to back off and let innovation bloom. And they will, because there aren’t any deep pockets there to sue yet. The question instead, though (as the article says), is the huge amount of capital it will take to keep YouTube going. The boys at Sequoia have already thrown in $11.5 million — but that’s just the beginning of what this thing will need. Try $2 million a month, some say, just to run the service. Wow, do they need ad revenues — fast! Meantime, how much more will the VCs bet? Well, don’t think they (and their friends) can’t pour it on — and will. Yet there are those already predicting YouTube’s demise….read Analyst Firm Predicts YouTube Is ‘Goin’ Down’ .

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