Graeme Thickins on Tech

Reflections & analysis about innovation, technology, startups, investing, healthcare, and more .... with a focus on Minnesota, Land of 10,000 Lakes. Blogging continuously since 2005.

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Gov. Doug Burgum Touts ND, Rich Karlgaard Sizes Up the Economy

event ballroom and stage

North Dakota has a lot going for it. The state embodies many good, positive things. The spirit of the pioneering American West. The frontier. Teddy Roosevelt. Hard work. Endless possibilities. Family values. The great American farmer. It also happens to have one of the best damn football programs in the entire U.S.A.: the NDSU Bison. Oh, and not the least, a booming economy.

I consider myself lucky to live in the next-door state, where I can closely admire what’s going on there. So, early Thursday morning, February 20th, I jumped in my car and headed Northwest to Fargo to attend the annual “Economic Outlook” luncheon event put on by the Fargo-Moorhead-West Fargo Chamber of Commerce.

It was fantastic! I’d only heard about it a few days earlier, in one of the email newsletters I get regularly from the fine folks at the Emerging Prairie organization.  (Thank you, Greg.) I knew it would be a bit of a time investment — a seven-hour round trip! But I happened to have the day open, and I quickly decided I just couldn’t miss the main speaker, my friend Rich Karlgaard (who happens to be a native of Bismarck, North Dakota).

Rich is the longtime Publisher of Forbes and a well known  futurist and speaker, whom the Chamber described as “one of the most influential and respected figures in the technology, economic, and business worlds. He advises audiences on how to harness an organization’s disruptive spirits to maximize business opportunities in the global marketplace. He’s also a regular panelist on one of cable news’ most popular business shows, Forbes on FOX.” Rich has a long bio, and you can learn more about him here, including his many great books. He’s one of my all-time favorite people in the tech business! We originally met some 20 years ago, and I manage to connect with him from time to time.

I arrived about 40 minutes early and was lucky enough to run into Rich as soon as I walked in. So we had a nice chance to catch up before the crowd started arriving. The event was held in a huge ballroom, and Rich drew a full house of business leaders. It was a packed,  high-energy affair!

Doug Burgum (left) and Rich Karlgaard

Doug Burgum (l) and Rich Karlgaard.

As we chatted in the big room, just as it was starting to fill, he saw his friend and colleague Doug Burgum, the noted software founder, VC, and now the Governor of North Dakota, walk into the room. So, we headed over to chat with him. I of course know Doug’s VC firm, Arthur Ventures, quite well and regularly stay in touch with some of the folks there. But Doug has been focused on serving as Governor since assuming that office more than three years ago. He was slated to give some opening remarks.

Times Are Good in North Dakota

“Every region in the country would trade places with us,” Doug declared after taking the stage. “There’s never been a better time for us here!” Then he started ticking off a list of ratings for his state:

• #1 Best Place to Raise a Family

• #1 for Millennials

• Fargo is the #1 Hottest Job Market, with Bismarck (the capitol) coming in at #9

• And, as we’ve all heard by now, North Dakota is the #2 Oil Producing State

“We’re powering and feeding the world,” the Governor said. He also noted that North Dakota ranks high in broadband deployment — one of the most connected states in the U.S.  As one of the top agriculture states, and arguably the most technologically advanced in ag tech, he said, “We need to have every combine connected!”

He went on to say that his state has one of the lowest unemployment rates, and that it needs more workers and education. “Our number-one priority is developing a larger, better educated workforce.”

The Main Event

Billed as a talk on “Tech, Trade, Turbulence, and the 2020 Election,” it was now time to hear from the keynoter, Rich Karlgaard. He began by saying he’s now been with Forbes for 28 years. (I remember when he began as editor of a brand-new publication called Forbes ASAP, after being a key team member of a ground-breaking Silicon Valley-based publication called Upside, which I loved and was where I first came to know him. I had the honor of introducing Rich at a huge event in downtown Minneapolis in 2000  — that will provide some more color about his early career.)

Rich Karlgaard on stageRich kicked off by mentioning a couple of his recent books, “The Soft Edge” and “Team Genius.” The latter, he said, received praise from Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, and — interesting tidbit — Rich noted that Satya once reported to Doug Burgum at Microsoft. Then Rich quickly dove into a hot topic of the  moment, the 2020 elections, as the latest Democratic train wreck debate had just happened the night before. His first slide spoke of “The Grim Logic of Money,” referring to the massive sums at play for Bernie and Bloomberg. He commented on some of the candidates, noting that Minnesota’s Amy Klobuchar “can’t get into orbit,” and that Nate Silver, the noted statistician, recently said Bernie will come up short of delegates, at only 1500-some, when 1991 are needed to get the nomination. He said it’s looking like a brokered convention this summer — “a mess like Chicago” (referring to 1968).

Rich dove right into a rapid-fire talk with many slides, touching on a  whole array of topics. It was hard to keep up the note-taking, but I was trying:

GDP Growth Rates

Trump has averaged 2.6% 2017-2019. Obama averaged 2.2%  2009-2016. George W. Bush averaged 2.1% 2001-2008 (but that last year was the financial crash). With the you-know-what virus scare, GDP in Q1 2020 will not be good, he said. But he nonetheless sees 2.2 to 2.3% growth for the year — a solid “B.”

Reasons for Hope

“Stocks are still undervalued — there’s room to grow,” said Karlgaard. He noted the increase in housing starts in December of 16.9%. Combined mortgage and household debt is near the bottom of the recent historical range. Interest payments on federal debt as a percent of GDP are way down. And CEO confidence rebounded in Q4 according to the Conference Board. “Also, small business optimism is going up,” he said. “It dipped a bit in Q4 but remains high.”

Life in the Valley

Rich put up a slide of Peter Thiel, the noted conservative VC and billionaire founder, who used to be in Silicon Valley but now lives in LA. Not sure the subtle point there, but Rich made a funny comment: “We conservative Republicans in Silicon Valley could hold our quarterly meetings in a phone booth.”

Bits vs. Atoms

Speaking in North Dakota, Rich couldn’t help but bring up what he calls the “atoms industries” — meaning mining, agriculture, industrial production, manufacturing. The kinds of industries where it’s harder to raise capital — as opposed to the digital industry centered in Silicon Valley, where money flows. (But a side note here: North Dakota is also a major software hub, with the Microsoft Dynamics business in Fargo being one of the largest employers in the state.)

Calling a 2020 Winner

“Trump is favored by voters in the world of atoms,” he said. “Meanwhile, Dems assume they’re better at digital things.” The Obama campaign in 2012 “cleaned Mitt Romney’s clock,” with social media and other digital tools. But, Rich said, look out for Brad Parscale, Trump’s digital campaign manager in 2016, who’s now heading the entire campaign in 2020. He cited a commentator who calls him “smart and dangerous.”

So, the digital edge may be changing. “Look what the Dems did in Iowa!” Karlgaard exclaimed — meaning the big digital fail. He predicts Trump wins easily in November.

Tech Trends that Are “Mega”

So, where are things headed in tech? Rich’s Megatrend #1 is this: “The tech economy is not slowing down — it’s speeding up.” The old Moore’s Law  essentially brought us a 30% improvement each year. But advances in semiconductors will soon be taking us from 30 billion to 60 billion transistors per chip. Taiwan Semiconductor just announced it will be opening a production facility for 3-nanometer silicon — a feat unheard of not long ago. He put up a slide citing “The New Engine of Disruption: Diane Greene’s Law” (she being the recent head of Google’s cloud division, and formerly a cofounder of VMware.) The new norm this brings us, says Karlgaard, is “a 60% annual improvement in digital bang for the buck.” He also quoted Scott Guthrie, head of Microsoft Azure: “Cloud not only scales up — it scales out, to users.” That referring to computing at the edge, which brings us advances like “near-instant trend analysis.” What industries will be transformed in the next decade? Here’s the slide: list of industries that will be transformed

Megatrend #2: “Extreme valuation creates asymmetric funding.” To illuminate, Rich cited the valuation of Tesla, currently at about $166 billion, as compared to GM at $49 billion. “Tesla’s getting free money,” he said. “They roll the dice! The investors want that.” GM, on the other hand, has investors that are primarily pension funds — and they don’t like or want change. What this trend results in, he said, is “repeated assaults to the profits of legacy companies.” And he couldn’t help but cite the current number of “unicorn” companies: it’s now up to 524.

Megatrend #3: “Digital awareness is becoming more important.” And here Rich delves into what the says are best practices — one being “cultural clarity.” Companies  have to know who they are, what they’ll do, and what they won’t do. He showed  what Fred Smith, CEO of FedEx, calls his triangle of health for companies: “Execution” on the left, “Values” on the right, and “Strategy” on the bottom. And he cited Scheel’s, a privately held, employee-owned sporting goods and entertainment chain headquartered in Fargo, which is “a good example of executing on its self-identity.” Another couple of best practices come out in his 2015 book, Team Genius: 1) small is better when it comes to teams, and 2) seek cognitive diversity — meaning both analytical and intuitive people. An example he cited: the pairing of two opposites at Starbucks: Howard Schultz and Howard Behar. When its rapid growth stalled, and customer service was suffering, the hard-charging Schultz promoted the other Howard to deal with the soft side of the business. Behar, not an analytical type and not even a college grad, was critical to the creation of what became Starbucks unique culture, eventually becoming president of Starbucks North America and Starbucks International. Another example of teaming: Fred Smith at FedEx had the “inside view” nailed, but he recruited a key outsider from Silicon Valley as a board member: Judy Estrin, who brought the digital view. Finally, Karlgaard talked about all the Silicon Valley technical-genius founders and cofounders with 800 math SAT scores: Woz, Zuck, and many other well-known names. “No HR manager ever got fired for hiring 800 scores!” But there’s a lot more to talent in the world of cognitively diverse teams in this digital age.

Do you know how many players got list of Karlgaard's "Super Powers"drafted ahead of Tom Brady, he asked? There were scores of them — and he showed many of the names you’ve never even heard of. So the question he asks is, “How do you find more Tom Bradys?” That’s a topic Rich addresses in his most recent book, Late Bloomers (also coming out in paperback soon). And he gave us a brief list of what he puts forth in that book as his key “Super Powers” — shown in the slide here. (I have the book and recommend it — in fact, I brought it along to get Rich to sign it!)

During the audience Q&A following his talk, Rich made an interesting comment about Fargo-Moorhead: “I think it punches well above its weight. I see it as a smaller Austin TX or Columbus OH.” Yes, indeed — population isn’t everything. Intangibles matter.

As the event ended and Rich was being interviewed by a local TV station, I chatted with a few good folks I’d met, then jumped back into my car to get back home before dark. My head was buzzing all the way back down Interstate 94. So glad I made the trip!

 

 

 

 

 

Ten New Year’s Resolutions… and I Intend to Break Them All

champagne toast

Have you been doing a lot of thinking about making changes in 2020? Yeah, me too. Well, I did for a little while, anyway. And I actually came up with a few things I could resolve to do. But I quickly came to my senses. Nah! — why would I do these things? Here my list of discarded resolutions:

1) I will not tweet so much about $AAPL.

Okay, I admit it. What I do on Twitter, week in and week out, is over the top — all my cheering for the best company, and stock, in the world. But no chance I will stop. Sorry — I’ve been an investor in $AAPL since 1990. And it’s just too much fun trolling the Apple haters. (It’s hell to be right.)

2) I will go to SXSW again in March.

Don’t think so. Got the t-shirt. Don’t even wear that. No CES either — and no Times Square New Year’s Eve (like I ever did or would). You get the idea.

3) I will have coffee with every single person who wants to “pick my brain.”

Are you kidding me? Just seeing if you were paying attention. (And, yes, that awful phrase is actually still being used by some people.)

4) I will stop telling startup founders their pitch decks are… lacking.

I can’t — that would be impossible. Because 90% of them are pretty bad in my long experience. (And the other 10% can use a boost.) Haven’t seen one yet that can’t be improved. And don’t get me started about Executive Summaries. But I try my damndest to help folks with both.

5) I will quit Facebook.

No, I do still post to it once a month or so. Yeah, that’s about it. So, it’s still worth a teeny bit to me. Still ticked that they stopped allowing all my tweets to go automatically to my Facebook feed. That made my Facebook friends think I was amazing — posting multiples times per day. Little did they know I rarely ever went there… muahahaha!

6) I will sign up for a paid account on LinkedIn.

Thought about that for a microsecond. Are you kidding? What a rip! Who’s in charge of pricing at that place? Don’t they know that a large percentage of the population doesn’t care about the traditional, corporate work world anymore? They don’t care about a site for job hunting and job hopping and touting all one’s multiple advanced degrees. Soon, 40% of the workforce will be freelance or contract workers. And a recent survey found 51% of those folks would never take a traditional job, no matter how much it paid. Sure, LinkedIn’s an okay networking site. So I’ll keep using it for free. Thanks, Microsoft!

7) I will stop ignoring LinkedIn connection requests from people I don’t know or from countries I never intend to visit.

Haha! Just checking again to see if you were paying attention. And is LinkedIn (and Microsoft) really proud of having created a channel where so many jerks are trying to sell crap all day long?

8) I will spend more time at WeWork.

I didn’t spend much time when I got a free account for a year (which will end soon), so why the hell would I pay for it?

9) I will be more discerning about what clients I take on.

No, I will be extremely more discerning.

10) I will work really hard to get more followers on Instagram, and will open an account on TikTok.

Yeah, when Hell freezes over.

That’s it. Ten things to start my 2020 right! Now, off to work out and lose a few pounds… 🙂

Startup Fundraising – What Works in Minnesota?

100-dollar bills in the snow

No word is uttered more often in startup circles, here or anywhere, than that dastardly F word. More ink is spilled and blather thrown around about it than virtually any other topic in the startup world. Who scored a round this week? Why is raising money so hard? When will we have more funding in our town (state, region)? Blah, blah, blah, and more blah. Multiple media outlets fall all over each other to breathlessly report on any successful VC raise (and even sometimes angel raises) as if it’s the equivalent of being drafted into pro ball or something. And I’m not just talking Minnesota — reporting on fundraising news and tracking the ongoing raises of startups is a veritable global industry unto itself.

Why is the topic so ever-present? Should we really be spending so much time talking and worrying about the process of attracting other people’s money? Or, as many founders might suggest, would you be better off to just shut up and bootstrap, focusing on attracting customers instead?

(Note: This article first appeared at Starting Up North, in two parts, both of which are included here.)

I wanted to probe the minds of a bunch of folks I know and admire here in my home state—founders and investors (many of whom also serve as mentors and advisors), plus some recently successful entrepreneurs— to get insights from their experience, and some useful advice.

What have they learned about raising money here in Minnesota? What works to get a startup going? What doesn’t? What’s realistic? What isn’t? Our objective was to try to help you better understand what really goes on out there behind the scenes, not just what you may hear, or read in various reports and stuffy press releases. And also to maybe break some stereotypes. [In my interviews, I asked the founders a similar set of questions, and of course, a different set of questions for the investors. The viewpoints of each didn’t always align exactly with their peers, but they were all quite forthcoming, for which I’m most grateful – and, hey, we all benefit, right?]

Think Before You Raise

One piece of advice that came up more than once about startup fundraising related to the question of why. “Make sure you really need it,” said Chip Pearson, cofounder of JAMF Software [which was acquired by Vista Equity Partners in late 2017 for… a large number] and now at Bootstrappers.MN. “There seems to be a missing component in people’s thinking regarding funding and business plans. If you don’t have a plan on how you can run your business without funding – albeit slower — then you should really spend the time on that problem and then raise money. The other thing is many people starting out see fundraising as a finish line and not a starting line. At best, fundraising is a distraction. At worst, it becomes the only thing that founders think about.”

This raises the question of, can you generate revenue? “Currently, Minnesota angels like to see traction in the form of revenue or meaningful market validation,” said Sara Russick, cofounder of Gopher Angels and a partner in the Capita3 fund. “They want to know the entrepreneur understands how to sell the product. This is a change from when we launched Gopher Angels in 2012. Then, angels were coming in earlier. Now, there are so many companies to look at, and a limited number of angel investors, so we’ve seen a shift in the stage where they want to come in. This is hard for early entrepreneurs because they need that really early, pre-seed capital. Gopher Angels does follow-on in about one-third of our companies, helping them get through that seed stage.”

One founder’s caveat: “A focus on revenue is the most important thing,” said Markus Mueller, cofounder of FashionBrain.ai, based in Duluth. “However, it’s important to focus on the right revenue — not all revenue is created equal. We coined the term ‘toxic revenue’ for that which is opportunistic and does not really grow the company to being profitable and sustainable. Revenue, yes — but only if it’s generated the right way and secures the future of the company.”

I asked another founder how she feels about focusing on customer revenue instead of raising outside investment. “It’s extremely important to pursue customer revenue right out of the gate,” said Mary Fallon, cofounder of Kidizen. “Outside investment is meant to accelerate the growth of a proven business model. No one will invest in you these days unless you have demonstrated that many customers will pay for your solution, however you define ‘payment’. It needs to be a repeatable interaction. In the ‘either/or’ scenario of this question, it comes down to how much of your business you’re willing to give up to accelerate that growth.”

Warning: Are You Ready?

Dave Russick, cofounder of Gopher Angels, offered this advice to founders: “One, do your own diligence on your future investors. Make sure you find ethical and non-predatory investors. Secondly, make sure you raise enough. Don’t low-ball your funding needs.  Raising takes a lot of time. A founder does not want to have to seek funding every six months. What if you don’t achieve your optimistic projections? And, finally, have a funding strategy. Know what your funding needs may be through the next two or three rounds, and plan accordingly.”

I asked Chip Pearson if founders understand how long it realistically takes to raise a round of angel or VC funding? “Not at all,” he said. “It is a tremendous distraction with a number of levels to it – pitch, term sheet, closing. I was surprised how long it took even with two different, highly capable, experienced CFOs running the process.”

What Fundraising Options Are Founders Pursuing in Minnesota, and Why?

Raising money from Friends & Family. Several I spoke with had something to say about this option. “Many professional investors love to see a friends and family round prior to investing,” said Chip Pearson..” The logic is that founders may not care about losing institutional money, but they don’t want to face a Thanksgiving dinner where they lost their parents’ money.”

Another viewpoint was offered by Jeff Robbins, a partner at Avisen Legal, and founder/organizer of investor group Angel Pollination. “Doesn’t matter. Good investors evaluate an investment potential on the opportunity, the team, and the progress, regardless of how the founders move the ball.”

Several of the founders I talked to for this story raised money from friends and family as their first outside money, including Markus Mueller of FashionBrain; Mary Fallon of Kidizen; and Susan Langer, founder of LiveGiveSave. More from them later.

Seeking out Angel Investors. For most startups, significant funds first come from this source. It’s a big topic here in Minnesota, discussed daily in every corner of our startup community, because, quite simply, it’s how the vast majority of pre-seed and seed-stage startup funding has traditionally happened here in our state.

A favorite question is this one: just how risk-averse are Minnesota angels? Do they deserve the reputation? “For the most part, Minnesota angels are conservative,” said Gopher Angels’ Dave Russick. “There are a handful making bets, but most that do are investing in low dollar amounts to spread the risk.” Gopher Angels now has about 80 members and meets every other month, said Russick, and between 40 and 50 attend a typical meeting, depending on the time of the year. “We live stream and record each meeting. There are usually up to an additional 10 to 15 participating via the live stream or watching the recording after the pitch meeting.”

Dave’s wife, Sara Russick, cofounder of Gopher Angels, has this view: “First, if you’re investing in any startup at all, you’re not risk-averse. Minnesota angels value quality. They’re smart and experienced, and bring an analytical lens to how they invest. They’re not ‘heart and gut’ investors, not chasing the next shiny object. This also means that they’re committed to the success of the startups they invest in. They give lots of time and make meaningful intros—they’re really available to the entrepreneurs.”

What’s the perspective of some of the founders I surveyed for this story regarding angels, and their personal experiences?

Eric Martell, cofounder of a new startup called Pear Commerce, who’s working out of the Osborn 370 startup hub in downtown St. Paul, has had a variety of experiences with angel investors – in both Minnesota and Wisconsin. “My first startup, EatStreet [Madison WI], has raised $49M to date, $45M of which was raised while I was there,” he said. “Those raises spanned regional angels to midwestern VCs to nationwide funds to international funds. Admittedly, I was riding shotgun to my cofounder, Matt Howard, who is still CEO at EatStreet. Locally, I raised $1.5 million from angels to get Gener8tor Minnesota off the ground. This was a great learning experience for both raising local money and also running a micro VC fund. Most recently, Pear Commerce participated in the Brandery startup accelerator and received an investment as part of our participation. We haven’t announced our other funding yet, but watch for some news coming!”

Eric continued: “Here in Minnesota, I’ve raised from both local angels and regional VCs and think both work well. I’ve found angels to have a slightly lower risk tolerance than VCs — which might surprise some people. I have a theory about this: If you’re an angel, unless you’re very fortunate to have investable time and cash to build a true portfolio, you probably will err on the side of more caution because you can’t make the sheer quantity of investments a fund makes — time and cash! If you have three shots in a game of horse, you’re probably not taking any of them from half-court. A fund has a bit more of a luxury to place safer bets — more traction — and take a couple of those half-court shots because, if one goes in, you know you’re going to cover the whole fund. I think the best path to more early-stage fundings in Minnesota is for more funds to supplement the incredible activity of our local angel scene, which I really admire. We need a few more local VCs. But, much love to all the existing local VCs!” [Note: we’re not addressing traditional VC in this article, as we’re focusing on early-stage fundraising.]

Susan Langer, founder of fintech startup LiveGiveSave, based in Red Wing, also found her way to obtaining angel funding: “To date, we’ve raised just shy of $500,000 from family, friends, and a local angel group through two convertible notes. The first note did not mandate conversion to the equity round; the second did.” What worked best for her here in Minnesota? “The community! I was able to build on and network through existing relationships, as well as tap into the growing ecosystem in the Twin Cities metro and Southeast Minnesota. It was a labor of love, as I met with old and new friends to share my vision. Meeting Neela Mollgaard, former executive director of Red Wing Ignite, was a godsend. [Neela is now head of Launch Minnesota, an initiative of the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development.] She connected me with valuable resources, all of whom offered, and continue to offer, measurable support — from mentoring and professional services, to pitch competitions and funding. Four years later, all have contributed to getting us where we are today – a working product in the App Store generating revenue.”

How did Kidizen get to angel funding and ultimately a VC round? “Like many startups, we began with seed money from family and friends and worked contract gigs to make ends meet,” said Mary Fallon, cofounder. “Concurrently, we pursued a few startup competitions, which helped subsidize our bootstrapping and helped us get our name out. Google for Entrepreneurs was one of the competitions that really propelled us down our path. In turn, that helped us raise our first round of convertible debt from angel investors. We followed up with a Series A round led by Origin Ventures in Chicago. We’ll be looking to raise our next round in 2020.”

Markus Mueller of FashionBrain: “Under our previous name (Tryon Media), we did a family and friends round, which obviously was after we had invested our own savings in the company. We then also raised angel funds — about $2 million from 2014 through 2016. Some investors also carry notes with the option to convert to equity.”

What has his experience been with angel investors in the Duluth area? “When I first convinced a few local angels to invest, they opened their networks to help me identify other potential investors. Several of our investors have invested more than once, and a few have more than tripled their initial investment.”

Alternatives: What About Bootstrapping?

I asked some founders how they scraped by early on. Is bootstrapping a viable option? How far can it take you? “We grew my previous company from $3000 pooled from the founders to mid-six-figure revenue per year while we were still students [at UW-Madison],” said Eric Martell of Pear Commerce. “I think timing and opportunity need to line up, and it’s totally possible. But my current company could never exclusively bootstrap to scale. It really depends on what you’re building that determines if that’s a viable path.”

Susan Langer of LiveGiveSave: “Before raising funds from family and friends, Red Wing Port Authority, Southern Minnesota Initiative Foundation, and a small amount from a newly-formed local angel group, my husband and I depleted our emergency and retirement savings. I obtained loans secured by our home and life insurance. In hindsight, I would not have done that with our home, as it created a significant barrier for us when we wanted to get a home equity loan to pay off personal debt.”

Markus Mueller of FashionBrain told me how he bootstrapped: “We started out in a floral-wallpaper adorned former master bedroom and moved out when we were five people, then moved to a 300 square foot office space in Duluth’s Canal Park. We still bootstrap on office space and are actively considering remote work for the entire team and company. We also bootstrapped in other ways. However, it’s wrong to think or assume that bootstrapping can help you avoid fundraising. We bootstrapped to be conscious of the use of funds — not to avoid having to raise funds.”

Mary Fallon, cofounder of Kidizen, which began in 2010, had some great insights: “If you’re choosing the bootstrapping path, you’re willing to take little or no salary while working more hours than you’ve ever worked before. It’s often not a choice but a decision you make based on the passion for your solution paired with a lack of independent wealth. It helps to have a strong support system made up of those who are most affected by this decision, which for me is my family. When Dori, my cofounder, and I started out, we were told that we weren’t your typical startup cofounders. ‘Typical’ meant you were young, male, and willing to sleep on peoples’ couches to circumvent rent or a mortgage. We had husbands and young children and were not in our twenties. We failed many times on our path to now. Bootstrapping is viable, yes – if you can produce strong revenue growth while keeping operating costs low. Then your chances of scaling without outside funds are better.”

Another amazing, more recent story about bootstrapping comes from Mary Kay Ziniewicz, founder of Bus Stop Mamas, which I wrote about here.

Two Different Funding Approaches – One Repeat Tech Entrepreneur

Daren Klum is a Minnesota tech entrepreneur who first cofounded LiquidCool Solutions (formerly known as Hardcore Computer) in 2006, based in Rochester, MN. More recently, he founded Secured2, Minneapolis, a data security company. What did he do differently in those experiences? “In both my startups, we initially followed a similar path. We raised capital from friends, family, and small funds. In the case of LiquidCool, we went the VC route for our Series A and B. At Secured2, we’ve bypassed the dilutive nature of VC. Instead, we’re doing alternative financing to scale the business, working with the largest sell-side M&A firm for software companies in the country.”

What has been his experience finding capital here in Minnesota? “We had tremendous support from friends and family in Minnesota for the early rounds in both my companies. However, the bulk of the $40 million we raised for LiquidCool came from out-of-state sources – in North Dakota, Wisconsin, and California. And most of the $6 million raised so far for Secured2 has also come from out-of-state — Virginia, Ohio, and Michigan. We’ve found larger capital amounts to be very hard to find in Minnesota.”

Klum said he bootstrapped both his companies in the early years. “Without showing a proof of concept and customers, we couldn’t ask anyone to invest. Was bootstrapping a viable option? Yes, I recommend all entrepreneurs bootstrap to minimize the risk for their investors,” he said. “Bootstrapping can replace a seed round if you do it while you have a job. I built my first company this way. I worked a full-time job and, at night in my free time, I would build my new business. Once I had enough built to justify investment, I was able to raise capital and quit my day job.”

How did Klum find and connect with angel investors? “I found all my angel investors through my network of friends, family, and colleagues. As well, I’ve been fortunate to get a couple investments from customers and relationships I built while growing the business.”

How long can a funding round take? “In the early stages, it can go very fast, because you’re generally working with people you know – friends, family, colleagues,” Klum said. “The more time-consuming capital raising comes when you get to your Series A and B rounds. The stakes are higher, there’s more due diligence, more risk, and obviously a lot more capital in play. So, generally, any round past your seed round logically takes more time to land. It can be months or even years to close larger funding amounts. It depends on the type of financing — debt, equity, or convertible.”

How Easy (or Hard) Is It Getting That First Check?

I asked Daren Klum what it was like taking that first investor check. “The first check is always the hardest – it’s usually family, and can be a very sobering experience. Once you take someone’s money, you’re committed and there’s no turning back. I see far too many first-time entrepreneurs take that first check, and then the going gets hard and they quit. Quitting is final. If you quit, you can’t reach success.”

Another viewpoint came from Markus Mueller, the founder of FashionBrain. “Getting the first check wasn’t hard at all — at least it didn’t feel that way. But there was a lot of effort that went into preparing the first pitch deck and engaging potential investors. Pre-work is key — by the entire team. They had my back, as the CEO and key fundraiser. Without their help, I would not have been able to do it. It does not get easier – in fact, I believe it gets harder. So, my advice is to focus and raise money as fast as possible with all effort on fundraising, and then return to driving the company’s business development. I made the mistake to raise funds over more than two years — and I regret the lack of focus the came with that. Know exactly how much money you need — raise exactly that. Don’t oversubscribe by more than 10%, for example. And use the funds to grow your company, to create value. Then, if necessary, raise more money at a higher valuation.”

How hard does Eric Martell of Pear Commerce say it is to get that first investor check? “I think this is a total case-by-case question. It was super hard to get early investors at EatStreet, then easier. I’ve seen companies exactly the opposite. You might have a very compelling vision or track record and get first checks easily, but then need to prove results. Likewise, if you’re a Minnesota tech company doing over $10 million in revenue, you’re flying in some rarified air and are likely to get a ton of love on a larger round.”

Rob Walling is the founder of TinySeed, a startup accelerator designed for bootstrappers. (Previously, he founded Drip, acquired by Minneapolis-based LeadPages, which adopted the Drip name.) I asked him if raising friends and family money is important before looking elsewhere. “Prior funding is less important than how much traction – for example, revenue – a startup has. I’d rather write a check to a founder who is capital efficient enough to make it to revenue without raising any funding.”

Should VC funding be so glorified? When is it the right way to go? “VC funding is simply one way to start a company,” said Rob. “It should not be viewed as a goal or having ‘made it.’ VC funding comes with a pretty major set of drawbacks, and founders should know what they are getting into before signing a deal.”

Can the Crowd Help?

A non-traditional option some have pursued here in Minnesota is crowdfunding. Since Kickstarter entered the national scene several years ago, many founders have tried it or its competitors. But, frankly, only a few startups in Minnesota have had great results. That may be changing. Wes Wierson, cofounder of Rochester startup LEAH Labs, is out to cure cancer in dogs. Here’s what he had to say: “Instead of Kickstarter, where you get a deal on a new tech gadget, the crowdfunding platform we chose—WeFunder—actually gets you equity in the companies you support. It’s been amazing for us. In addition to validating the market through testimonials of angel investors who know we’re building a cool product. and pet owners donating on behalf of their fallen furry friend, it brings much-needed seed investment to our business.”

Traditional VC did not fund Wes’ business early on, after he went through a recent biotech class in the famed Y Combinator accelerator program in Mountain View, California. “I think it’s because they really don’t understand our technical science, and, secondly, they’re more risk-averse than they want you to believe. With equity crowdfunding, we’re able to ignite our business based on the passion of dog owners, and the support of angel investors who understand the high reward market we’re building.”

What’s The Current State of the Minnesota Angel Community?

“When we founded Gopher Angels seven years ago, the angel community was limited to hard-to-find individuals or one angel fund,” said Dave Russick, cofounder. “Gopher Angels was able to provide a home for individuals and micros funds to collaborate on deals, which helped fill the funding gap for seed and early-stage companies. Frankly, there was still a greater need for funding than could be provided by GA. Over the last few years, the funding landscape has improved greatly. There are several new funds available to entrepreneurs, many of whom target specific industries. We also now have active accelerators such as Gener8tor and Techstars Farm to Fork that provide seed funding while helping the companies prepare better for the funding chase. There are also multiple individuals and organizations that are serving to connect founders and investors. We even have some funds such as Urban Innovation that have set up offices in the Twin Cities. In short, the angel investor scene here has changed tremendously and changed for the better!”

Joy Lindsay, partner, Sofia Fund: “I think the angel community in Minnesota is healthy and growing. I’ve been an angel investor for 20 years, and it’s probably the most active I’ve seen during that time. There are many new participants to the angel community. When we raised the original Sofia Fund, we purposely targeted women to join the fund who had never invested in the asset class before. These are people who are not only bringing their money but their expertise and network to engage with companies and help them grow.”

She continued: “Dave and Sara Russick have done an amazing job growing Gopher Angels. I was just at their meeting last week. Again, these angels are smart, engaged individuals from a variety of backgrounds and industries. Many have never invested before, but they join the group and learn from each other. The Minnesota Angel Tax Credit has also been a driver of bringing new people to angel investing. As we all know, investing in startups is very high risk, so anything that can be done to support that activity the better. Minnesota has a rich heritage of giving back. While that has historically meant we are very philanthropic, more and more I also see successful entrepreneurs and corporate executives giving their time and talent to invest in and then to mentor entrepreneurs. Like philanthropy, this work is critically important to the economic growth of the state.”

How does startup attorney Jeff Robbins, who also heads the Angel Pollination investor group, assess the current state of the Minnesota angel community? “I’d say better educated on investing and increasingly not doing so. I would add some color to that – our prime angel community is aging out. They’re moving to warmer climates and investing in funds rather than companies. And the recession has delayed the emergence of next-gen angel investors.”

Is that a clarion call to younger angels out there – time to step up?

Sara Russick of Capita3 (and also a cofounder of Gopher Angels) assesses the current situation thusly: “There are so many awesome entrepreneurs who are working so hard. Many more of them deserve funding than are actually getting it. A small number of angel investors can’t fund them all – it’s that simple. We have tons of resources to help grow the startup community. We need more resources pointed at growing the angel investor community.”

Mary Grove, Minnesota-based partner in Revolution’s Rise of the Rest Fund, sees things in a similar vein: “Minnesota’s startup ecosystem has scaled impressively over the last half-decade. It’s an attractive place to start and scale a company. From the density of Fortune 500s to the talent pool to the capital efficiency of building here. That said, there is still a large gap at the early stage in the funding landscape, especially at the Seed and Series A stage across most sectors.”

What Does the Future Hold for Startups Trying to Raise Capital in Minnesota?

Rob Walling of TinySeed says things look good: “The more Minnesota startups that have success, the more our ecosystem grows. I’ve been in town for three years, and, even during that short time period, I have noticed more events, more startups, and generally more action in our local startup ecosystem.”

Sofia Fund’s Joy Lindsay also likes what she’s seeing. “Raising money for a startup is never easy. But I think there are a few trends in Minnesota that are making it easier. Most of the very early capital invested in startups comes from investors in the general geographic region. We do have an active and growing angel community. But what is also encouraging to me is the growth of new venture funds. In recent years, Capita3, Matchstick Ventures, Great North Labs, The Syndicate Fund, and even funds like the student-run Atland Ventures have all closed new funds to invest in seed and early-stage rounds. These funds didn’t exist five years ago and are actively investing in companies, many of which are based in our state. Then there are funds like Vensana Capital, led by seasoned VC Kirk Nielsen, who recently closed a $225-million fund. Obviously, that capital won’t all go to Minnesota companies, but it’s great to have Kirk based here. We could use more of these large Series A and Series B venture capital funds in our state, but it’s encouraging to see so many new funds starting.”

Joy continued: “One area that excites me is the focus on getting all members of our community interested in entrepreneurship and investing. The Sofia Fund was one of the very first groups to focus on growing the number of women angels, and then investing in women-led companies. Capta3, another local fund, focuses on women-led companies in healthcare. Lunar Startups is a local incubator doing great work to support women, people of color, and other high-potential entrepreneurs. The Aspen Institute, the Center for Economic Inclusion, and the Case Foundation recently held a summit to discuss ‘inclusive investing’. Here in Minnesota, MEDA has provided capital to minority entrepreneurs through its $1 Million Challenge.”

Does attorney Jeff Robbins see things improving? And how do we compare to other states? “Improving over the 2008 recession days? Yes. Minnesota fares well among Midwestern states, and we do have cool companies.”

“The future is bright,’ said Sara Russick. “We’re turning a corner and growing from a nascent entrepreneur ecosystem to one that is being supported from all sides, taking advantage of Minnesota’s awesome people, education, big corporations, and communities. Our state is attracting attention from investors from around the country because they see what’s happening here. As more of our startups begin to mature, we could see the Series A/B gap grow. I hope we see many more Series A and B funds come in to support their growth, and keep our innovation and talent here in Minnesota.”

Mary Grove of the Rise of the Rest Fund provided this perspective: “The good news is, more investors are paying attention and seeking opportunities to establish a local presence here or simply seek out local startups to fund. I believe we’ll continue to see expanded access to capital and the opportunity for more innovative companies to start, and equally importantly, to scale and stay here. Our recent Twin Cities Startup Week was a great example of this trend. I connected with investors and startups alike who had flown in from other cities in the region as well as the coasts to participate. At Revolution’s Rise of the Rest Seed Fund, we’ve invested in six Twin Cities-based companies. I’m proud to be based here and part of the Minnesota entrepreneurial community.”

[Note: The second Rise of the Rest Seed Fund was announced October 28 – another $150 million fund focused on backing entrepreneurs outside traditional coastal hubs.]

The Big Exit: Can Minnesota Expect Another One Soon? Why or Why Not?

(Note: This story originally appeared at Starting Up North. It has been updated to include one more Minnesota tech company that has reached a valuation of more than $1 billion, and another that almost did in 2014.)

Has all this talk about “unicorns” and billion-dollar exits got you down? Doggone it, Minnesota needs some, right? So we can tell our friends in other states, “No, really, we have an awesome startup scene here! We aren’t Flyover Land.” You tell them we have some hot startups going on – you just haven’t heard of them yet. “You just wait – we’ll show you!”

Well, when exactly will we do that? That’s the main question we raise here, as well as why do we want such big exits? And we have some great local leaders who were kind enough to weigh in and give me their take on the subject.

What is an “exit,” anyway? One of three things: it’s when a company sells, has an initial public offering (IPO)… or, um, goes out of business. We’re gonna skip that last one! And the IPO thing we’ll touch on only briefly. We’re mainly talking here about companies getting acquired — by another company (strategic buyer) or a private equity (PE) fund — for multiples of the amount of money that’s been invested in them.

Minnesota Does Okay

First of all, we do have many successful exits here in our state on a regular basis. Granted, not many at $1 billion-plus, at least not what we might consider recent startups — let’s say less than 10 years old. Frankly, there aren’t any here within that young age range that have yet had what we’re defining as a Big Exit. Nor might many people think there will be any, outside the medtech/healthcare sector. Here are seven examples of Minnesota billion-dollar-plus company transactions or valuations in recent times:

• Cray Research was just acquired a couple of months ago by HPE for $1.3 billion. It was founded in Minnesota, sure — but that was 40+ years ago, when Control Data gave Seymour Cray some money to go off on his own. (It still has a presence in our state, and I’m guessing its name is likely to remain on that big building adjacent to the Mall of America for some time.)

• Ceridian, which also still has a major presence in Minnesota, did an IPO in April 2018 that valued it at almost $3 billion. But, again, this is a company that was founded in our state almost 40 years ago as a unit of Control Data.

• ConvergeOne, based in Eagan MN, was acquired by CVC Capital Partners for $1.8 billion in a deal that closed in January 2019. It’s a global IT and managed service provider of collaboration solutions. Founded in 1993, it went public in February 2018 and has more than 2200 employees worldwide, including a few hundred in Minnesota.

• Ability Network, a healthcare company in Minneapolis, was acquired by Inovalon in March 2018 for $1.2 billion. It provides secure web and private networks for healthcare providers and was founded in Minnesota way back in 2000.

• SPS Commerce, a retail supply-chain SaaS company that traces its beginnings to 1987, went public in 2010 at a valuation of $131 million. It now has a market cap of $1.8 billion and employs 1200, more than a thousand of which are based in its downtown Minneapolis headquarters.

• Help Systems, a low-profile IT management company based in Eden Prairie founded in 1982, was valued at $1.2 billion when a private equity firm in Palo Alto CA acquired a controlling interest in 2018. The company has more than 700 employees, about half of which are in Minnesota and neighboring states.

• Proto Labs, based in Maple Plain, was founded in 1999. It grew rapidly, then went public in 2012 at a valuation of $371 million. It  achieved a market cap of $1 billion in early 2013 and has stayed solidly above that level since then, with a valuation most recently of about $2.5 billion.

But the fact remains: no Minnesota startup has achieved a billion-dollar exit or valuation in less than ten years from its founding. None has reached the “unicorn” status that’s been so vaunted in recent years. (Whether you believe that matters or not.)

However,  one came very, very close in late 2010. That’s when data-storage tech company Compellent was acquired by Dell for a cool $960 million. Yes, we will call that a biggie for Minnesota! It was founded in 2002, so it was a very fast eight years to get to the Big Exit. (And I’ve heard this one created up to three or four dozen millionaires. Not too shabby.)

Another Minnesota firm that almost reached the magical threshold was Digital River, based in Minnetonka. In 2014, it was acquired for $840 million by PE firm Siris Capital (NYC) and taken private.  It was one of the original Internet startups in our state and went public in 1998 at a valuation of $142 million. Its valuation today? That’s your guess.

But How Are Other Non-Coastal States Doing?

Let’s get envious now – and talk more recent acquisitions. Some of our fellow Midwestern states have major bragging rights over us when it comes to unicorn-level acuisitions of newer startups:

• Indianapolis’ ExactTarget was acquired by Salesforce for $2.5 billion in 2013. That acquisition has done, and continues to do, great things for that city and state.

• Ann Arbor’s Duo Security was acquired by Cisco for $2.35 billion in 2018. And, of course, the startup community there crowed about what that meant to them.

• Columbus Ohio’s CoverMyMeds was acquired by McKesson for $1.1 billion in 2017. This exit was the biggest in Ohio history.

• Chicago’s Clever Safe was acquired by IBM for $1.3 billion in 2015. It was one of the biggest exits in Chicago tech history and created 80 millionaires.

There have been billion-dollar exits in many other non-coastal cities and towns, too – Raleigh NC, Nashville TN, Lisle IL, and Boulder CO come to mind. You can read about many here, going back over the past decade or more.

Why Hasn’t Minnesota Had Many Billion-Dollar Exits Compared to Other States?

“We maybe have more than many think,” said Jeff Hinck, general partner at Rally Ventures, citing two of the Minnesota company transactions listed above. “And JAMF, which was acquired for a bit under, could sell for that today,” he noted. [PE firm Vista Equity Partners bought a controlling interest in the firm in 2017.] “Compared to the traditional powerhouse states like California, Massachusetts, New York – yes, (we’ve had) far less.” But he thinks we’re trailing other states by not that much. “The reason we have less big exits than some states is that we frankly have fewer startups. Austin, Boulder/Denver, and DC have far more startups, so far more exits. The startups-to-large-exit ratio is probably no different in Minnesota than in those cities — although it is versus those powerhouse states.”

Scott Burns, cofounder and CEO of Structural, sold his previous startup, GovDelivery, in 2016 to Vista Equity Partners (which has rolled it into Granicus). He has a take on why we don’t have more Big Exits: “Investors (here) sitting on a lot of upside are more likely to take an exit before the billion-dollar threshold. I do think we should take more credit for what we have, however. Look at SPS Commerce, which has somewhat quietly grown into a company with a $1.8B market cap.”

Michael Gorman, a managing director at Split Rock Partners, points out our state represents only about 1.5% of the U.S. population. “On most measures, we punch well above our weight based on the level of education, corporate depth, and so forth.” He brought up another local company to watch: “Bright Health has recently raised significant money — not yet an exit — at a healthy valuation, but I don’t know the exact figure.” That firm, plus the recently acquired JAMF, and the Minnesota billion-dollar exits we cite above “collectively still employ thousands of people in Minnesota and have generated great wealth and opportunity,” Gorman added.

So, Why Do We Want Big Exits?

I asked Justin Kaufenberg, cofounder and CEO of SportsEngine. His firm was acquired by NBC Sports in 2016 for an undisclosed – let’s just say “large” – amount: “It takes decades to build an ecosystem capable of growing unicorns,” he said. “You need a round of exits for first-time founders, who then go on to participate in the funding or building of the next round of companies. That second round then enjoys more seasoned founders and executives and more aggressive and patient investors.”

Similar comments came from VC Michael Gorman. [Note: his fund has been an investor in SPS and Help Systems.] “Great exits help reinforce the virtuous circle of innovation, whereby talent is developed, wealth is created, and the innovation capacity of the region is enhanced,” Gorman said. “When a company generates a great exit, it helps the immediate employee beneficiaries and creates additional financial freedom to pursue the next entrepreneurial impulse.”

What Do Other Midwestern States Have That We Don’t?

One M&A professional in Minneapolis had some pointed words in this regard. Rob Griggs is a regional VP for Seattle-based Corum Group, a 30-year old firm focused in sell-side M&A, primarily for small to mid-sized software firms, with more than 300 successful transactions to date. He gives tech-based M&A presentations multiple times per year in fourteen cities across the Midwest. In his previous life, Griggs raised significant funding for multiple startups. “My take is that, locally, we don’t have the focused approach that many of these communities have from universities, incubators, angel investors, successful entrepreneurs, and corporate VCs leveraging resources to build a thriving early-stage investment cycle. When you have even local government assisting, the returns, rewards, and community growth follows. Here, we just don’t have that approach, sadly, in my experience.”

Scott Burns offered a Midwestern example he’s familiar with: “Structural has an office in Indianapolis, so I spend a lot of time there. It had a terrific exit with ExactTarget building up there, executing a successful IPO, and then being sold to Salesforce for $2.5B… this infused a lot of capital and talent into the local tech ecosystem that’s led to a surge in tech startup activity and to a large Salesforce office in town, as well as satellite offices for other companies with headquarters elsewhere.”

Well, yeah, we could use some of that here!

Minnesota Angel Investors Stepping Up?

Are Minnesota founders who have had successful exits doing as much angel investing as their counterparts in other Midwestern cities?

“Not that I can see,” said Griggs. “The few I know pretty much leave town with their cash, more or less. They lose their appetite for risk once they get theirs, unfortunately. A few do a couple of deals, but I don’t see a strong mentor network, or aggressive angel network like I’ve seen in other parts of the country. Cincinnati and KC are very strong at local support.”

Scott Burns has a refreshingly different view. “I’ve seen a surge in founders with successful exits investing locally… putting money back into the community. I don’t have benchmark data to compare us to other communities, but I like the trend in the Twin Cities.”

There’s Something Crazy About Startup Funding These Days

Dave Dalvey, managing general partner at Brightstone Venture Capital, cites some startling figures. “We’re living in a capital marketplace with record high amounts of uninvested capital held by PE and VC funds looking for high-quality investments. The amount of capital raised and as-yet uninvested is referred to as ‘overhang’ or ‘dry powder’ in the industry. According to a recent report, the entire PE industry has more than $2 trillion in dry powder, with $1.2 trillion of this being held by PE buyout-style funds, and just over $400 billion in the hands of VC fund managers.” Most of this overhang lives in two geographic areas, he said, where the competition is particularly tight: the Bay Area and the New York/Boston corridor.

“History has proven that market environments where too much money is chasing too few deals is never a good thing for investors and their ultimate fund returns,” Dalvey continued. “Investors fearful of missing the next big deal throw everything they learned in business school about valuation out the window and buy into this trend towards unicorn pricing without much fundamental valuation support.”

All these competitive market factors, he said, “help build and feed the unicorns on the front end, and keep them fat and happy through the early years of their little unicorn lives — and even through their IPO years.” And he noted we’ve seen close to a dozen unicorn IPOs already in 2019. However, the number of IPOs overall is way down, so that route to an exit would appear to be unlikely for most.

Another surprising fact Dalvey cited, from the Pitchbook/NVCA Q2-2019 report: VC mega-deals (raises of $100 million or more) rose to 208 deals in 2018, or 44% of all deal volume. In 2013, there were just 36 mega-deals, or 13% of all deals. Yikes!

But Maybe We Shouldn’t Be Focusing on Unicorns and Billion-Dollar Exits

Joe Payne is the CEO of Code42. Previously, he led Eloqua to an IPO and, soon after, an acquisition by Oracle in 2013 for close to a billion dollars. “For starters, if you’re building a company, you’re not trying for a billion-dollar exit — you’re trying to build a great, lasting company with a billion-dollar valuation. It’s a subtle but important difference. Minnesota has plenty of billion-dollar companies across many industries that started as nothing and are now worth that kind of money. There is much to be proud of. What the state needs now is to replicate that historical success and apply it to technology companies.”

Another local player doesn’t pay much attention to all this billion-dollar talk. Cathy Connett, an angel investor and managing partner of Sofia Fund, said this: “We may not have had as many billion-dollar exits, but it’s important to look at exits generally in light of the amount of money raised to achieve those exits. First, you need to remove the ‘unicorns’ from the data set. Almost a third of the monies raised nationally in 2017 went into a few unicorns, which are driven largely by hype and are on the coasts. If you look at the data after the unicorns are removed, I think a big factor is our more efficient use of capital in Minnesota. Considering the money invested in Minnesota companies and the cash-on-cash return achieved on that money, you’ll find our companies perform on par, if not better, than other areas.”

Are Tech Company Valuations in Minnesota Simply Lower Than in Other Midwestern States?

“Not at all,” said SportsEngine’s Kaufenberg. “I don’t think there’s any real difference across the country right now. The best companies are all raising money in a fairly predictable and narrow band of valuation, and those deals are competitive.”

VC Michael Gorman agreed: “It’s not my experience that tech valuations in Minnesota are systematically lower. Strong teams and ideas have attracted capital at market rates here.”

I asked Kaufenberg if he’s seen any trend in the valuations of tech companies based in Minnesota. “There’s a lot of competition for the best companies,” he said. “Those growing at 300% in the early stage and 100% in the growth stage are having their valuations pushed up to historic levels. However, that next tier of companies can have a harder time, and valuations in that cohort feel as though they’ve actually come down across the country.”

Scott Burns had a comment in this regard: “We might get slightly lower valuations at the early stages, but even that fairly reflects the fact that we have fewer entrepreneurs with big exits in their past starting new ventures here.”

Will We Have More Billion-Dollar Exits in Minnesota in Coming Years?

Michael Gorman of Split Rock Partners believes so. “We will to the extent we have companies playing in very large markets, led by excellent teams, boasting tech that leads the category, and demonstrating extraordinary growth and/or substantial profitability.”

Jeff Hinck of Rally Ventures didn’t hesitate: “For sure – we have a couple that are already capable of that. We have a lot more that could be, and it will depend on execution and valuation environment at the time of the exit.”

A former VC who was just named head of the Minnesota High Tech Association (MHTA), Jeff Tollefson, had this to say: “While it would clearly benefit Minnesota’s economy to have more billion-dollar exits, I think we will see many more successful singles and doubles rather than big home runs, with exit values in the hundreds of millions, not a billion… Will we see more of those big exits? Absolutely. But I would much prefer seeing dozens of companies achieving nine-figure valuation exits each year and catalyzing future waves of entrepreneurial success in the process.”

Joe Payne, the CEO of Code42, also thinks we’ll have a number of winning companies with billion-dollar valuations. “There’s one mind-shift change that will help Minnesota companies be successful more quickly. Because technology is portable and doesn’t need to be ‘shipped’ in order to win, you must be the best in the world in your space. That’s a mind-shift change for many in the Twin Cities. You can’t be best in Minnesota or best in the Midwest — you have to set your sights higher. You have to be the best in the world.”

No denying Payne has ambitions. “Given our fantastic customers at Code42, our market-leading products, and our world-class team, we have a very good chance to be a billion-dollar company in the next few years.”

Something More Important Than Money?

I asked Jeff Hinck how equity should be structured in order for a big exit to truly have the impact we want in our community. He had this to say: “A sizable number of people should have equity, especially early employees who take more risk joining a startup. If someone does well in a startup, they’re more likely to start one themselves, join another, or recommend to friends asking if they should join startup to go for it. That said, I think more of the reward of being part of a startup is usually the atmosphere and culture of the good ones. It’s just more fun. And what’s better than having fun and being paid more for it?”

So, remember to add that three-letter word when you’re bragging to your friends about the quality-of-life in Minnesota – and that only gets magnified when you’re part of a great startup!

The question now is, are you working in one — or on one — yet?

Will Another Minnesota Startup Ever Become a Fortune 500?

{NOTE: I originally wrote this article for a new publication called Starting Up North, which launched in early June 2019.]

Pretty much every Minnesota company on the Fortune 500 list began as a startup, as hard as that may be to imagine today. Sure, some were spinouts of large, established firms, such as Target, originally an internal startup at then Dayton-Hudson Corporation back in the 1960s.

Image by skeeze from Pixabay.

But think 3M in the early 1900s, rising from the obscurity of the Northern Minnesota mining industry, or Medtronic, which began as a repair shop in the 1950s in Earl Bakken’s garage in Northeast Minneapolis – both giants in their respective industries today. (Medtronic dropped off the list in recent years only because it’s now headquartered in Ireland.)

Obviously, the startup-to-Fortune 500 story can take decades to happen. And many, many American firms that reached this coveted designation have faded away over the years. But one wonders when another scrappy little Minnesota company might break out and hit the big time.

But should we even care? It’s just a list. Nonetheless, it’s fun to imagine… what startup out there could possibly be the next, however many years it might take?

What Even Qualifies a Company to Be On the Fortune 500 List?

Despite what it may seem, the Fortune 500 isn’t simply a list of the 500 largest firms of all types. Minnesota has at least one giant — Cargill, the largest privately-owned company in the U.S. – that’s never on the list. Surprisingly, there is no set amount of revenue that gets a company onto the list — though companies are ranked by revenue. (The threshold for making the list is different every year; for 2018, it was $5.4 billion in revenues – 6 percent more than 2017.) It’s a list of only American companies, meaning incorporated in and operating in the U.S. The companies can be public, private, or even cooperatives, but they must file financial statements with a government agency to qualify. (Cargill doesn’t, but we have other Minnesota companies that do and have made the list, even though they are not publicly traded: CHS and Securian. But, it should be noted, Securian dropped down on the list that just came out; it’s now #506.)

Profits aren’t part of the criteria. Crazily, you can lose money and make the list, even tons of it (looking at you, Tesla). Fortune magazine, which publishes the list annually, says its other criteria focus on a company’s long-term goals and adaptability. They rightfully point out that the road to the 500 will take a lot of years, and whatever your company is currently offering probably won’t get you there.

So, who might make it someday from Minnesota? What industry might they represent? First, let’s look at the industry sectors Minnesota Fortune 500s represent today:

• Healthcare/Medtech: 2
• Retail: 2
• Logistics/Transportation: 1
•¨Insurance: 1
• Food/Agriculture: 6
• Manufacturing 2
• Banking/Financial: 3
• Energy/Utilities: 1
• Water/Hygiene/Food Safety: 1

Notice not a single one is classified as “technology” in Wall Street terminology (meaning IT, software, computers, semiconductors), though the current Fortune 500 list has many such companies — by my quick count at least 18. Sure, looking at it another way, what company today would not be considered a technology company? It runs through everything. But the fact remains, Minnesota is not a technology company hotbed anymore. And that causes people to wonder how that happened, with our long history in the state as an information technology innovator. It’s been since the mid-1980s that a computer-related firm in Minnesota made the list. That would be Control Data (where I was a manager early in my career, in that company’s glory years). It broke itself up long ago, though its legacy remains strong. It spawned literally thousands of startups over its four decades of existence, scattered all over the country. At least three books have been written about Control Data and the era of tech dominance in our state.

Steve Grove, Minnesota’s new Commissioner of the Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED), wrote about the state’s computer legacy in an excellent column in the StarTribune in January: Reboot required (or seeking a Minnesota Miracle 2.0).

Here’s the closing line: “With pride in our entrepreneurial roots and a bold vision for the future, Minnesota can become a nation-leading tech hub once again.”

Let’s Start With a Counterpoint

When seeking commentary for this article, I especially wanted to hear from Tom Kieffer, one of the most prolific and successful serial tech entrepreneurs in our state. He’s had four successful exits in his career in the IT sector, the latest being the sale of a majority interest in Virteva just this spring. (A company I had a role in helping him launch in 2005.)

“I think the question you raise with this article is the wrong one,” he said. “It’s an outdated measure of success. I think history will show the pursuit of Fortune 500-ness in this day and age is a fool’s errand.”

He went on: “The real question is, how well is Minnesota positioned to build the companies — and jobs, careers, communities, and clusters — of the future?”

That future, he said “lies somewhere between the gig economy and the GE-style conglomerates of the past — and it’s certainly closer to the small end of that spectrum. The world is getting smaller, and we’re not going back –- ask any millennial or Gen-Xer.”

Look at the history of the Fortune 500 phenomenon, Kieffer said. “A major benefit, and definition, of being one of these companies is access to ‘cheap’ public funding. But it’s really not that cheap anymore. There are many ways to access capital these days, from Kickstarter to private equity in addition to legacy VC. And there are plenty of exit paths for startups beyond selling to a public company.” (Exit alternatives he knows well.)

Many of the Fortune 500 companies created in the past 10 years are the so-called ‘unicorn’ style, he noted — such as Amazon, Facebook, and Uber. “However, I think the public financing approach is going out of fashion now, just as the current wave of unicorns goes public.”

So much for Fortune 500 (and IPO) adoration.

Running the Numbers

The quantity of Minnesota firms on the Fortune 500 list has remained relatively stable over several years. I can remember it being as high as 21 or 22, then it dropped to 17 in 2016. In 2018, it went up to 19. On the most recent list, just published in May 2019, we’re back down to 17 Minnesota companies. So we’re hanging in — somewhat.

Minnesota DEED says on its web site that our state ranks third in Fortune 500 companies per one million people. And, by number of firms on the list, our state ranks #10 in the U.S.  Yes, Minnesota represents well.

How many more Minnesota firms are on the second 500 of the Fortune list? Don’t get excited: only six more. So, a total of 23 Minnesota firms now on the Fortune 1000, as of their 2018 list (just published). What we’re asking in this article is, are there growing companies in our state that might be among the 2000 or 3000 largest right now – or maybe an upstart we’ve barely heard of yet – who could be capable of rising up over the years (decades?) to become dominant corporate leaders in Minnesota?

Ecosystems Matter

Does Minnesota have an ecosystem that can ensure we will continue to produce Fortune 500 companies?

“We do have some things in our favor related to eventually producing additional Fortune 500 companies — such as a patient workforce,” said Mac Lewis, who’s been CEO of a public company (Computer Network Technology, acquired by McData in 2005). He’s also a venture capitalist with Sherpa Partners, was CEO of Field Solutions (acquired by Field Nation), and currently serves as CEO of Phocus.io. In addition, he’s a longtime board member of the Minnesota High Tech Association. “Employees here tend to stick with a company.”

He notes that many Minnesota startup companies do have experienced leadership and a culture for producing value, with revenue-based business models – that is, “a real product or service, versus plans to capture eyeballs and then do advertising.”

Other benefits of our business community, according to Lewis are “a skilled workforce, experienced leaders and managers, high-caliber support in the legal, regulatory, and financial areas, and many mentors.”

Phil Soran has been a CEO and cofounder of two successful Minnesota tech firms, one being Compellent, which went public and was later acquired by Dell (in 2010) for close to $1 billion. (In essence, it almost became our own little unicorn.) “Minnesota does have attributes that could produce more Fortune 500 companies in the future,” he said — role-model companies with experienced management not being the least. “We tend to build on sustainable business models as opposed to hyped trends. That’s the foundation of a company that can be a future industry leader.”

How have things changed over the years in Minnesota? “It’s much more accepted now to be an entrepreneur — that was not the case previously,” Soran said. “This is very important. We now need more large successful startups to role model success in this new environment. I do see some current growing younger businesses in our state that could grow into Fortune 500 companies.” (No, I couldn’t get him to name them.)

“It’s a hard task to accomplish,” Soran added, “but made easier as many Fortune 500s are being acquired, providing openings for new members.”

Soran said we’re very lucky to have so many “large, ethical companies in a variety of industries providing very good employment opportunities.” But he sees two issues: “I do not think our community and government appreciate their impact nearly enough.” Also, though he sees lots of “spinoffs” that alumni of these companies have started, “many of them are not as visible as their success might dictate.” Too shy? Too Minnesota-nice to brag?

What Are We Lacking?

So, all the positives aside, where does Minnesota fall short?

According to Lewis, “Relative to other parts of the country, Minnesota does not have the entrepreneurial personality to ‘swing for the fences’ — that is, leadership and vision for a company that can paint a big picture of its future, in which it can be the next ‘unicorn’ with a market value in the billions.”

But there’s a bigger problem, he said: “There’s less local venture leadership and other financing for companies that may need mid-to-high hundreds of millions of dollars of funding to support large, sustained investment in product and distribution – things that are critical to building such a ‘unicorn’.”

Soran sees an ongoing issue, a common refrain of local startup CEOs (and one he himself has experienced): “I still find it very hard for young local technology companies to win business at larger companies in town. There’s still a little bit of the notion that ‘it cannot be good if it’s not from the coasts’,” he said.

Listening, Fortune 500 execs?

Lewis said some large Minnesota companies do seem interested to work with local startups as initial local customers, “to help them establish their market,” he said. “I believe this has been an initiative of the Itasca Project and other business groups. However, I don’t think it’s been easy to implement, and, as a result, has had only a minor positive impact.”

What’s Better: Becoming a Fortune 500 or Having a Big Exit?

Some say we’re unlikely to produce as many Fortune 500s as in the past because too many fast-growing Minnesota firms opt to be acquired rather than go public.

“Early-stage companies get acquired for many good reasons,” said Lewis. “They get financing and much larger market exposure by becoming part of an established company,” he said. “Investors and leadership teams get a payout and liquidity.”

But he points to another benefit for the seller: “It can be less risky and less costly than staying independent. In the 1990s and earlier, smaller companies were able to tap public markets for funding and liquidity. Now there’s a higher bar to go public,” Lewis said, “including (the costs associated with) Sarbanes Oxley [a U.S. Federal Law] and desire or need of investment bankers for fees from larger and larger transactions.”

Soran said, “Going public is a challenging hurdle for young companies to clear — and there have not been many in Minnesota in the recent past.” (His Compellent was one of the last big, successful ones, certainly in the tech sector.) “There are lots of benefits for companies jumping this hurdle — in branding, sustainability, and credibility. Nationwide, the number of IPOs is way down, with other options like private equity providing liquidity, growth capital, and equity upside to entrepreneurs.”

Care to Pick a Winner?

What sector is likely to produce our state’s next Fortune 500?

“I’m not sure,” said Lewis. “I don’t see an easy path for any Minnesota company to become a future Fortune 500. But I’m an optimist — as an entrepreneurial personality — and believe there will be some. Considering industry segments, I’d probably prioritize the likelihood like this: healthcare services, medtech, agtech, software, or financial/insurance services.”

“Our economy is changing quickly,” said Soran. “Technologies such as data analytics, artificial intelligence, digital records, and information security will provide leadership opportunities for Minnesota startups.”

Does One XL Beat Five Mediums?

Is continuing to attract educated, highly paid workers to our state dependent on growing new Fortune 500 companies to our ranks? Or if we produce, say, 5-10 fast-growing startups, each achieving $50-100M in annual revenue, will that lead to the same result?

Lewis likes the former: “Having a local company grow to be a market leader would have larger impact on our local economy and job base – like Seattle with Microsoft and Amazon. Multiple smaller successes are good and will have positive impact, but not close to the impact of one or more big success stories. UnitedHealthcare is an example of such impact recently in our market.” (That company, which is Fortune #5, dwarfs the other 17 Minnesota firms on the list – and how many “spinoffs” of various types  has it produced already? I don’t know the exact number, but it’s many and growing!)

What Role Should Minnesota Fortune 500s Be Playing to Support the Growth of Startups in the State?

So what are some things — right or wrong — with the current situation?

“Engaging newer companies as vendors is the most important support that’s needed,” said Soran. “That’s where Fortune 500s can have an impact.”

Another way they can play: collaborating with and supporting incubators or accelerators in their respective markets. “The impact that Target, Cargill, and Ecolab are creating with their Techstars programs is palpable. Keep it going!” (And UnitedHealthcare also recently launched such a program. Gener8tor, too, is coming on strong with its accelerator programs in Minnesota and other states.)

What about the part local higher-ed institutions can play? “The universities I am involved with have a strong appetite for collaboration,” said Soran, “Much more so than in the past.”

Lewis echoed that actively engaging newer companies as vendors is at the top of his list. He also agrees with Soran about incubators and collaborating with our local universities.

So What’s the Verdict?

There’s no question our startups can learn much from their successful predecessors in the state. But it’s time they got more love and support from them, too. Minnesota’s strong entrepreneurship legacy can and will continue to roll on. Our startup community is hot! Even Fortune’s archrival, Forbes magazine, has told us that.

If you’re a Minnesotan (or even if you’re not), what’s your take? Are the best days ahead for our state when it comes to being a center for Fortune 500 companies?

 

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